What is the Opinion that has recently been hotly discussed in the market? In 3 minutes, let’s help you understand the new project in the prediction market

Mar 10, 2026 11:33:46

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Summary

Recently, the attention on the prediction market sector has been steadily increasing. Opinion, as one of the projects that has garnered significant market interest, attempts to transform people's judgments about real-world events into tradable probability assets through an on-chain protocol. The project proposes the concept of "Multiplayer Internet," aiming to create a priceable and verifiable collective consensus on-chain through market mechanisms. In terms of product design, Opinion adopts a Central Limit Order Book (CLOB) trading structure, combined with on-chain settlement and AI-assisted oracle mechanisms, to build a prediction market infrastructure similar to an "on-chain event exchange." The project previously completed approximately $25 million in funding and will complete the OPN token TGE and launch trading on March 5, 2026. However, the market performance post-launch has been relatively cautious, with high valuation backgrounds compounded by airdrop selling pressure, putting pressure on the token price. Additionally, discussions have arisen in the community regarding the airdrop distribution ratio, claiming mechanism, and potential regulatory issues in the prediction market.

1. Project Introduction

What is Opinion doing?

Opinion is a decentralized protocol built around prediction markets. It aims to turn people's judgments about real-world events, such as macro data trends, policy outcomes, or major news directions, into assets that can be traded on-chain. In the traditional internet, opinions are merely expressed: posting, commenting, sharing, with low costs and difficulty in verifying whose judgment is more accurate. Opinion seeks to establish a new mechanism where, when you have a judgment about something, you need to participate in the market with funds, and the market price will automatically reflect the collective probability expectation. Price becomes a digital expression of consensus. The official term for this concept is "Multiplayer Internet." It emphasizes that the internet is not only a space for information dissemination but also an economic system where multiple participants engage, compete, and price together. Opinions are thus quantified, verified, and ultimately settled by the market.

Technology and Product Structure

From an overall architectural perspective, Opinion can be understood as a three-layer system: the underlying protocol defines how events are created and settled; the liquidity and matching layer is responsible for trade execution and price formation; the front-end application serves as the entry point for users to participate in prediction trading. Opinion has chosen a Central Limit Order Book (CLOB) matching model. Users can place limit orders like in traditional exchanges, with buyers and sellers matching orders to complete transactions, and prices formed by real trading depth. This structure is closer to the market mechanism of centralized exchanges, emphasizing price discovery under multi-party competition rather than relying on algorithmic curves to automatically derive prices. From an information discovery perspective, the order book model has finer price levels and more sufficient competition, which is more conducive to forming probability prices with reference value. However, it also places higher demands on liquidity, requiring continuous market-making support and active user participation.

At the event settlement level, Opinion introduces an AI-assisted oracle mechanism to help interpret complex real-world information, such as policy texts and macro data releases. This does not mean that AI determines the outcome, but rather that it uses technical means to convert unstructured information into clear, verifiable settlement conditions, thereby reducing disputes and ambiguities. Opinion's product concept is not simply to replicate traditional prediction markets but to construct a framework for an infrastructure closer to an "on-chain event exchange": the order book is responsible for real price formation, the protocol layer ensures clear settlement logic, and AI assistance reduces information processing costs.

How do opinions turn into "prices"?

In Opinion's system, an event is not merely voted on but is broken down into tradable "outcome assets." For example, the question "Will the CPI announced next month be above 3%?" will be split into two outcome tokens: YES (will be above 3%) and NO (will not be above 3%). Since an event can only have one outcome, the prices of these two tokens typically add up to close to $1.

Assuming YES is currently priced at $0.7 and NO at $0.3, it means the market overall believes the probability of the event occurring is about 70%. This price is formed by the buying and selling actions of all participants. When more people are willing to pay a higher price for a certain outcome, the market probability rises; conversely, it falls. After the event is announced, the market settles according to the outcome: if the CPI is above 3%, the YES token settles at $1, and NO goes to zero; if it is not above 3%, the NO token settles at $1, and YES goes to zero. Therefore, when a user buys YES at $0.7, they are essentially purchasing an asset that may become $1 in the future, with the return depending on whether their judgment is accurate.

This mechanism is similar to the basic logic of prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, but Opinion emphasizes a decentralized protocol structure and on-chain settlement, hoping to become reusable infrastructure rather than just a single trading platform. Compared to a like-based expression, this mechanism requires judgments to bear costs. When opinions need to take on risks, noise naturally decreases, and prices have a better chance of becoming an effective expression of collective cognition.

2. Market Dynamics

Funding and Institutional Endorsements

Since its inception, Opinion has raised approximately $25 million in funding, reflecting strong capital recognition. The seed round in 2025 was led by YZi Labs and attracted participation from well-known Web3 investment institutions, including Animoca Ventures and Amber Group. YZi Labs' endorsement has brought Opinion opportunities for close collaboration with the BNB Chain ecosystem and integrated it into broader strategic resources. In early 2026, it received support from capital focused more on technology and ecosystem development, including Jump Crypto and Hack VC, which have rich investment and resource integration experience in DeFi and infrastructure projects. This funding lineup not only provides long-term financial support for Opinion's technological development but also helps establish a relatively solid strategic network within the industry.

Rising Heat in the Prediction Market Sector: A Growing Structural Opportunity

In recent years, the prediction market has significantly increased in popularity, evolving from a relatively niche play to a more serious and practical tool. On one hand, macroeconomic data, central bank policies, and other factors have become targets of interest for traders, leading to a growing demand for probabilistic judgments; on the other hand, on-chain prediction markets can transform collective judgments into price signals, a function that many market participants value. Protocols like Opinion are attempting to evolve traditional speculative prediction markets toward more standardized infrastructure, forming a more open market foundation. The prediction market is currently transitioning from experimental play to more mature infrastructure applications.

Airdrop Controversy

Before the TGE, the market had high expectations for the scale of Opinion's airdrop. Due to the project's long-term incentive system encouraging user participation in prediction trading and community activities, some OTC markets even began pricing the points. When the airdrop ratio was still unclear, related points in the OTC market were once priced close to $45 per point. However, when the official announcement revealed that the TGE airdrop ratio was about 3.5% of the total supply, market expectations quickly adjusted, and the point price plummeted to around $6 per point, a drop of over 80%, leading to strong dissatisfaction among community users.

Additionally, the total airdrop ratio of OPN is about 23.5%, but only about 3.5% was allocated for the initial distribution at TGE, with the remaining portion needing to be gradually released in subsequent phases under different conditions. Some community users believe that the initial release ratio is too low and does not meet the expectations of early participants and contributors; furthermore, the point acquisition and distribution mechanism is relatively complex, which some users find difficult to understand. These factors have continued to spark discussions before and after the launch, affecting market sentiment to some extent.

TGE Launch and Initial Market Feedback

Opinion's token OPN completed its TGE on March 5, 2026, at 21:00 (Beijing time) and launched spot trading on several exchanges, including Binance, Bitget, Gate, and CoinW. With the official circulation of the token, the project transitioned from several months of point incentives and expectation games to the price discovery phase in the secondary market. According to the token economic model, the initial circulation at TGE accounted for about 19.85% of the total supply. This portion of circulation mainly comes from community incentives, Binance Launchpool rewards, and some liquidity allocation, so the overall tradable chips in the early stage of the launch are relatively limited.

Before the launch, Opinion had accumulated significant attention in the community based on the prediction market narrative, participation in Binance Launchpool, and high valuation funding background. However, in terms of actual market performance, OPN did not form sustained buying support. After starting trading at a fully diluted valuation of about $450 million, the token quickly faced selling pressure from airdrop and Launchpool users, leading to a price drop of about 17.8% within less than 24 hours of launch, with the current FDV around $370 million, and market sentiment has become cautious.

This trend also reflects changes in previous market expectations. On one hand, incentives such as airdrops and Launchpool released a certain scale of circulation at TGE, leading some users to choose to cash out their profits shortly after the token launch, creating some selling pressure in the short term; on the other hand, discussions in the community regarding the matching degree between airdrop scale, point incentive mechanisms, and real usage demand have also somewhat affected market confidence. Under the influence of multiple factors, the overall market performance of OPN in the early stage of its launch has been relatively weak.

3. Team Background

Opinion is developed by Opinion Labs, and the team presents a composite structure of traditional finance and blockchain technology. The project founder and CEO, Forrest Liu, graduated from Columbia University and previously worked in corporate financing and investment at CMB International Capital, possessing experience in private equity and institutional capital markets. On the technical side, co-founders have experience in quantitative trading and large system development, with public information showing that some core members have worked at institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, McKinsey & Company, and Amazon. However, compared to some leading prediction market projects, the overall transparency of the Opinion team is relatively limited, and the community has discussed transparency issues. Overall, Opinion's team advantage lies in the combination of financial and technical backgrounds, but long-term development still needs to be further validated through product performance and data growth.

4. Token Information

OPN is the native token of Opinion, with a total supply of 1 billion tokens. According to the official token economic model, about 23.5% is allocated for airdrops and community incentives (of which about 3.5% is released at TGE), 23% is allocated to investors, 19.5% to the team and advisors, and the remaining portion is used for ecosystem development, foundation, and market promotion. The team and investor shares typically have lock-up and linear release mechanisms to reduce short-term selling pressure risks.

In design, OPN is the core functional asset of the entire "Multiplayer Internet" ecosystem. It can be used to access advanced data and oracle services, such as macro data analysis, prediction signals, and on-chain analytical tools. As ecosystem applications increase, some data services and analytical tools may require OPN for access. OPN also plays a role in ecosystem usage and permission credentials. For example, in some applications, holding or using OPN can provide transaction fee discounts, VIP privileges, or advanced features. Additionally, OPN is used for protocol governance, allowing token holders to participate in voting decisions on key parameters, oracle rules, and ecosystem development directions.

Overall, the project aims to bind the token value with the development of the prediction market ecosystem through various scenarios such as data services, platform rights, and governance rights.

5. Competitive Landscape

Sector Benchmarking and Competition

From a sector perspective, prediction markets are not a completely new concept. Over the past few years, various projects with different models have emerged, such as Augur, Polymarket, and Kalshi. These platforms are all attempting to transform people's judgments about future events into tradable probability prices through market transactions.

However, in terms of positioning, Opinion's approach is slightly different. Platforms like Polymarket or Kalshi are closer to single prediction trading platforms, where users primarily participate in market trading through their front end; whereas Opinion emphasizes the role of protocol layer infrastructure, hoping to allow different applications to access the same set of prediction market infrastructure through standardized event tokens and shared liquidity mechanisms. Its goal is not just to be a prediction trading website but to become the underlying protocol for prediction markets. If this model can be established, it may theoretically lead to multiple applications sharing the same liquidity and market structure in the future, thereby enhancing overall market efficiency. However, this also means that the project needs to simultaneously promote the growth of both the protocol ecosystem and trading market in its early stages, making development relatively more challenging.

Market Share

Before the token issuance, Opinion had already accumulated a certain level of trading activity. The platform launched on the BNB Chain in October 2025. According to research statistics from Messari, during the first three weeks from October 24 to November 17, 2025, the platform's average daily nominal trading volume was about $132.5 million, with a cumulative nominal trading volume exceeding $3.1 billion. As user participation increased, during the period from November 11 to 17, 2025, Opinion's weekly nominal trading volume reached about $1.5 billion, accounting for about 40% of the global prediction market trading volume that week, briefly surpassing Polymarket and Kalshi to become the highest trading volume prediction market platform that week.

In terms of actual transaction volume, according to DefiLlama data, the platform's cumulative trading volume has approached $10 billion since its launch, with a trading volume of about $1.2 billion in the past 30 days and an open interest of about $31 million, with a TVL of about $29 million. In the current prediction market sector, Polymarket and Kalshi still hold strong brand and user bases, while Opinion has gained a certain market share in a short time due to its point incentive mechanism. However, these trading activities mainly occur at the platform application level and do not fully reflect on-chain data for the OPN token, so its long-term value still depends on whether the demand for prediction market trading can continue to grow.

Risks and Challenges

Although prediction markets have unique value in information discovery and probabilistic pricing, this sector still faces certain uncertainties. Prediction markets often rely on oracles to obtain real-world data; if there are disputes over data sources or settlement rules, it may affect market credibility, so related mechanisms need to operate long-term to verify stability. Secondly, Opinion's price relies on real transactions; if the number of market participants is insufficient, prices may struggle to fully reflect real probabilities, and trading depth may also be affected. Lastly, since prediction markets involve trading outcomes of political, economic, or social events, some countries and regions may view them as gambling or financial derivatives, leading to certain gray areas in policy. Future changes in regulatory attitudes may also impact the development of the entire sector.