Analysis: Bitcoin surged and then fell below $70,000, with institutional spot buying facing off against derivative shorts

Bitcoin has fallen below $70,000, and the current market shows a clear divergence. Institutional spot buying continues to accumulate Bitcoin, while derivatives traders are increasingly adding short positions. Historically, when spot accumulation and negative funding rates occur simultaneously, it often triggers a "short squeeze," where shorts are forced to cover their positions, pushing prices upward, but this outcome is not guaranteed.

Analysis suggests that this round of correction mainly reflects the profit-taking pressure from short-term traders, with some investors choosing to cash out after buying during the rebound. Despite the recent rebound, the market still lacks sufficient confidence in the sustainability of the upward trend. Sentiment in the derivatives market is also pessimistic, with funding rates remaining significantly negative, indicating that traders are paying fees to maintain short positions, while spot demand still exists. Recently, the inflow of stablecoins into exchanges has reached a new high since 2026, and the fund flow for spot Bitcoin ETFs has also turned back to net inflows.