Bitget UEX Daily Report | Trump promises to safeguard oil transportation; oil prices surge and then retreat; gold and silver plummet as the dollar strengthens (March 4, 2026)

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Wors faces multiple challenges before taking office; high oil prices may hinder Trump's interest rate cut vision

• Kevin Wors faces multiple challenges as he takes the helm of the Federal Reserve. The economic trajectory diverges from the White House's expectations, and the surge in oil prices due to Middle Eastern conflicts further reinforces a cautious policy stance.
• Most Fed officials believe inflation remains high and employment stable, with no urgency for further rate cuts; some colleagues question Wors's logic of rate cuts centered around the tech revolution and his commitment to balance sheet reduction; the Senate has yet to schedule a nomination hearing.
• This may lead to a more conservative path for Fed interest rates, increasing market uncertainty, potentially suppressing stock market rebounds and pushing up bond yields.

International Commodities

Iran claims control over the Strait of Hormuz; Trump offers shipping security

• The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy announced full control over the strait, with multiple oil tankers ignoring war warnings and being attacked and burned; Trump instructed a financial company to provide low-cost political risk insurance and, if necessary, to have the Navy escort oil tankers to ensure the free flow of global energy.
• Over a dozen oil tankers were hit, and Qatar's largest LNG plant remains closed, causing European natural gas futures to surge over 60% in two days and 32% in one day; Goldman Sachs rapidly raised its April gas price forecast for Europe to €55 per megawatt-hour, with Asian buyers rushing to buy, collapsing summer inventory logic.
• Concerns over energy supply disruptions are exacerbating global inflation pressures, amplifying oil price volatility, which may indirectly weaken gold price momentum and affect the stability of emerging market economies.

Macroeconomic Policy

Trump says he can tolerate short-term oil price increases, prioritizing the elimination of the Iranian threat

• Trump stated he could endure a temporary rise in oil prices to prioritize destroying Iran's "imminent" threat, as U.S. gasoline prices surged due to supply uncertainties, while revealing that Iran's arsenal is nearly depleted and expressing willingness to cooperate with surviving officials.
• Military actions have destroyed most of Iran's naval and aerial targets, weakening Iran's missile launch capabilities; the U.S. has ample reserves and is accelerating production, with defense companies receiving emergency orders to operate at full speed.
• This stance may prolong the duration of the conflict, amplify uncertainty in the energy market, and potentially increase demand for the dollar while suppressing global economic growth expectations.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Slightly up 0.97% to $5140 per ounce, with yesterday's fluctuation exceeding 4.36%, slightly suppressed by the dollar.
• Spot Silver: Up 1.52% to $83.2 per ounce, with yesterday's fluctuation exceeding 8.15%, significantly retreating amid liquidity tightening.
• WTI Crude Oil: Up 0.72% to $75.1 per barrel, with yesterday's fluctuation exceeding 5.31%, driven by heightened supply concerns amid geopolitical tensions.
• Dollar Index: Up 1.07% to 99.17, driven by demand for safe-haven liquidity.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Down 1.2% to $68,103, experiencing continuous fluctuations due to risk aversion.
• ETH: Down 2.67% to $1,975, testing the psychological level of $2,000.
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Down 1.2% to $2.41 trillion, driven by macro uncertainty leading to capital outflows.
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation across the network in 24 hours is approximately $375 million, with long positions liquidated around $247 million.
• Bitget BTC/USDT liquidation map shows: Current price around 68,073, with a dense long liquidation zone in the range of 67,800--66,500; a drop below this may trigger a chain reaction of long liquidations. The upper range of 69,000--70,500 shows significant short leverage accumulation; if broken upwards, it may easily trigger short squeezes, amplifying volatility.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Down 0.83%, narrowing after a sharp drop in the morning following Trump's escort statement.
• S&P 500: Down 0.94%, with energy stocks providing a buffer amid volatility.
• Nasdaq: Down 1.02%, dragged down by technology and chip sectors.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• Microsoft: Up over 1.35%, benefiting from stable demand for cloud services.
• Amazon: Slightly up 0.16%, supported by e-commerce resilience.
• Meta: Slightly up 0.23%, with advertising business relatively robust.
• Nvidia: Down over 1.33%, due to concerns over chip supply chains.
• Alphabet (Google): Down nearly 1%, facing pressure from search and AI competition.
• Apple: Down 0.37%, with potential impacts from MacBook price increases affecting consumer sentiment.
• Tesla: Down 2.7%, with electric vehicle chip supply potentially affected by delays in Samsung's mass production in the U.S. Overall, tech giants showed mixed performance, primarily due to geopolitical conflicts amplifying chip and supply chain risks, while defensive stocks like Microsoft rose against the trend.

Sector Movement Observations

Gold stocks down over 7%

• Representative stocks: Newmont, down over 7%; Barrick Gold, down over 8%.
• Driving factors: A significant drop in gold prices combined with a strong dollar, exacerbating liquidity tightening and selling pressure.

Silver stocks down over 10%

• Representative stocks: First Majestic Silver, down over 10%; Coeur Mining, down over 10%.
• Driving factors: A sharp decline in silver prices amid concerns over industrial demand, with risk aversion shifting towards the dollar.

AI application software stocks up over 2%

• Representative stocks: ServiceNow, up over 3%; Adobe, up over 3%.
• Driving factors: Continued strong demand for AI, resisting macro uncertainty and providing growth buffers.

Popular Chinese concept stocks down over 2%

• Representative stocks: Alibaba, down over 4%; NIO, down over 2%.
• Driving factors: Global risk aversion impacting emerging markets, amplifying concerns over supply chain disruptions.

# 3. In-Depth Stock Analysis

1. MongoDB - Q1 Earnings Guidance Below Expectations

Event Overview: MongoDB released Q1 revenue guidance of $659 million to $664 million, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.15 to $1.19, both below analysts' expectations of $662.5 million and $1.20, leading to a stock price plunge of over 22%, hitting a six-month low. This follows a broader sell-off in software stocks, highlighting valuation pressures in the industry. Market Interpretation: JPMorgan's co-head warned that selling pressure on software stocks may persist, as U.S. stocks enter a "sell first, buy later" mode. While the current decline may not be entirely rational, it could spread to other sectors, with institutions focusing on consumer demand and external uncertainties. Investment Insight: Avoid short-term risks of tech stock pullbacks, and wait for subsequent earnings reports to confirm demand recovery before re-entering.

2. Paramount Skydance - Rating Downgraded to Junk Status

Event Overview: Fitch downgraded Paramount Skydance and its subsidiaries' long-term issuer default rating from the investment-grade edge of BBB- to speculative-grade BB+, placing it on negative watch. The net debt post-merger reached $79 billion, significantly weakening its risk resilience in a highly competitive and structurally changing media environment, with the stock price dropping nearly 7% yesterday. Market Interpretation: Institutions are concerned about unclear transaction terms, financing, and deleveraging measures. This rating downgrade reflects a fragile financial structure, vulnerable to market fluctuations, highlighting the challenges of transformation in the media industry. Investment Insight: Short-term stock price pressure is expected; it is advisable to wait for clearer financing details before assessing long-term potential.

3. Pinterest - Elliott Invests $1 Billion

Event Overview: Activist investor Elliott injected $1 billion into Pinterest to support its multi-year stock buyback plan. The board approved an additional $35 billion buyback plan and plans to use up to $500 million in cash for further stock repurchases, driving the stock price up over 9% yesterday. Market Interpretation: Institutions view this as a positive signal for enhancing shareholder value, with the scale of buybacks reflecting management confidence, especially amid intensified competition in social platforms, providing valuation support. Investment Insight: The buyback boosts mid-term confidence; consider holding to observe user growth.

4. AutoZone - Q2 Sales Below Expectations

Event Overview: Auto parts retailer AutoZone reported Q2 sales growth of over 8% to approximately $4.27 billion, below analysts' average expectation of $4.31 billion; net income fell nearly 4% to $469 million, with earnings per share of $27.63 slightly exceeding the expected $27.13. The stock price dropped over 6% yesterday, affected by tariffs, winter storms, and instability in the automotive market. Market Interpretation: Although consumer demand remains stable, external factors are exacerbating performance volatility. Institutions emphasize the need to monitor supply chain and economic cycle risks. Investment Insight: Short-term volatility is significant, but long-term benefits may arise from a recovery in automotive repair demand.

5. Ross Stores - Annual Performance Guidance Exceeds Expectations

Event Overview: Discount retailer Ross Stores released annual performance guidance that exceeded market expectations, with after-hours stock price rising over 6%, reflecting retail consumption resilience and optimized inventory management, supported by strong performance in the previous fiscal quarter. Market Interpretation: Analysts believe the guidance indicates signs of retail recovery, with the advantages of the discount model highlighted in an inflationary environment, prompting institutions to raise target prices. Investment Insight: Opportunities in the consumer sector are emerging, making it suitable to allocate to defensive retail stocks.

# 4. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

• On-chain data shows that the U.S. government transferred approximately 0.3346 BTC, valued at about $23,000, from a wallet marked as related to "Miguel Villanueva."
• According to Onchain Lens monitoring, Circle minted 1 billion USDC on Solana in the past 10 hours. Additionally, due to geopolitical tensions driving up oil prices and weakening rate cut expectations, Mizuho Bank analysts raised Circle's target stock price from $90 to $100, maintaining a "neutral" rating. Analysts believe that changes in interest rate expectations may have a greater impact on Circle's valuation multiples than on short-term revenue boosts.
• U.S. President Trump stated on Truth Social that stablecoin legislation, the GENIUS Act, is being threatened and undermined by banks.
• CFTC Chairman Mike Selig stated that the agency will release policies in the coming weeks to provide guidance for the compliance of cryptocurrency perpetual contracts in the U.S. and promote the launch of "professional-grade" perpetual futures in the U.S.
• MARA Holdings disclosed in its latest 10-K filing with the SEC that it has expanded its digital asset management strategy for 2026 from "only selling BTC mined in the current year" to allowing the sale of Bitcoin accumulated on its balance sheet.
• According to Onchain Lens monitoring, in the past 10 hours, BlackRock withdrew 4,376 BTC ($298 million) from Coinbase and deposited 567 BTC ($38.05 million) and 7,553 ETH ($14.7 million) into Coinbase.

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

Important Event Forecast

March 4 (Wednesday)

• The U.S. will release February ADP employment numbers, S&P Global Services PMI final value, and February ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI;
• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will participate in a fireside chat at the Morgan Stanley TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecom) conference in San Francisco;
• After hours: Chip giant Broadcom (AVGO) will release earnings; continuing discussions on AI investment trends in the U.S. market. (5 stars)
• After hours: Cybersecurity stock (CrowdStrike) will release earnings.
  March 5 (Thursday)
• 21:30 ET Initial jobless claims will be released, and at 3:00 AM ET, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book on economic conditions.
  March 6 (Friday)
• 21:30 ET February unemployment rate and seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls will be released, with an expected addition of 60,000 jobs. (5 stars)

Institutional Views:

On March 3, risk aversion dominated the U.S. stock market, with the Dow Jones and other indices sharply dropping in the morning before narrowing. However, energy stocks benefited from a 4.7% rise in oil prices; although precious metals like gold fell 4.41%, they received support from safe-haven demand, with institutions viewing $5,200 as a key level, potentially testing for a rebound in the short term; crude oil surged to $74.56 due to risks of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent challenging above $80, potentially exacerbating inflation; the dollar index rose 1.07% to 99.42, with liquidity demand strengthening its strength, suppressing emerging currencies. Overall market volatility is amplified, suggesting a focus on defensive assets and monitoring conflict dynamics.
Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search, with human verification for publication, and is not intended as any investment advice.