Bitget UEX Daily Report | Software sector rebounds; Meta and AMD sign huge chip agreement; HP falls over 6% after hours; Circle to release earnings (February 25, 2026)

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Fed officials express concerns: AI may push up neutral interest rates

• Several Fed governors and the chair have commented on the labor market and inflation path: Cook pointed out that AI is causing a generational shift, which may temporarily push up neutral interest rates and increase inflation risks; Collins believes inflation will decline later this year; Goolsbee emphasized the need for more evidence to confirm sustained cooling of inflation, otherwise further rate cuts may not be appropriate. Market impact: Rate cut expectations are further anchored in June-July, the dollar is supported, US Treasury yields are under short-term pressure, and volatility in risk assets may remain high.

International Commodities

Global tanker freight rates soar to nearly six-year highs

• Daily charter rates for VLCCs from the Middle East to China have surpassed $170,000, tripling since the beginning of the year; negotiations between the US and Iran, changes in geopolitical supply, and a surge in orders from South Korean shipowners have collectively driven up freight rates to the highest level since April 2020. Market impact: Rising oil transportation costs will be passed on to end oil prices, providing short-term support for WTI and Brent, but if negotiations progress smoothly, the geopolitical premium is expected to decline.

Macroeconomic Policy

Trump's State of the Union addresses tech giants' responsibility for AI data center energy costs

• The government has reached an agreement with several unnamed tech companies, requiring businesses to bear the costs of data center electricity and infrastructure to prevent consumer electricity prices from soaring; ADP data shows that private sector employment added an average of 12,750 jobs over the past four weeks, improving for four consecutive weeks but still below last year's peak. Market impact: While easing fiscal and household burdens, it increases pressure on tech capital expenditures, making the sustainability of the AI investment boom a new focus for the market.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity and Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Up 0.18%, reported at $5,153/ounce, still in the upward range
• Spot Silver: Up 0.2%, reported at $87.42/ounce
• WTI Crude Oil: Up 0.72%, reported at $66.11/barrel, geopolitical negotiations and rising freight rates create a hedge
• Dollar Index: Down 0.07%, reported at 97.83, cautious Fed statements provide support

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Down about 1.05%, reported around $64,189, testing short-term support after four consecutive declines
• ETH: Down about 0.7%, reported around $1,850, beta characteristics amplify the decline
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Up about 0.2%, reported at $2.29 trillion, driven by a retreat in risk appetite
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidations around $340 million, with longs dominating at about $249 million, concentrated in long positions

US Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Up 0.76%, reported at 49,174.5 points, rebounding to recover previous day's losses
• S&P 500: Up 0.77%, reported at 6,890.07 points, led by software and tech stocks
• Nasdaq: Up 1.04%, reported at 22,863.68 points, significantly driven by AI application software sector

Tech Giants Dynamics

• AAPL: Up over 2%, rumors of a touchscreen MacBook Pro debut in the fall boost sentiment
• AMZN: Up over 1%, overall tech atmosphere supports
• GOOGL: Down 0.19%, signs a 20-year "power agreement" with AES, supporting Google's global cloud services and AI business expansion, still a long-term positive
• META: Significantly up, AMD's huge chip agreement directly catalyzes
• MSFT: Up over 1%, linked to the recovery of the software sector
• NVDA: Slightly up 0.68%, cautious sentiment ahead of earnings report
• TSLA: Up over 2%, benefiting from sector rotation; core reason: Anthropic's conference signals "collaboration rather than replacement," easing concerns about software stocks, combined with the boost from the Meta-AMD significant agreement for AI infrastructure themes.

Sector Movement Observation

Software/AI Application Sector leads in gains

• Representative stocks: Figma +11%, Roblox +7%, Salesforce +4%
• Driving factors: Anthropic launches enterprise agents and collaborates with traditional software vendors; institutions like Wedbush believe the risk of AI replacing existing workflows is overestimated

Storage/Memory Sector shows significant decline

• Representative stocks: SanDisk (SNDK) -4.2%, Micron slightly down, HPQ down over 5.75% after hours
• Driving factors: Citron Research's short attack points out that NAND cycle attributes are misinterpreted as an AI moat, and expectations for Samsung's capacity recovery exacerbate supply pressures; HPQ's earnings report shows rising memory costs dragging down guidance

# 3. In-Depth Stock Analysis

1. Meta Platforms - Reaches Huge "Chip + Equity" Agreement with AMD

Event Overview: Meta announced a multi-year agreement with AMD to deploy up to 6 gigawatts of AMD Instinct GPU computing power, with an order size of about $60 billion; at the same time, Meta has the right to purchase up to 160 million shares of AMD common stock at $0.01 per share (about 10% equity), a milestone exercise. The first shipments are scheduled for the second half of 2026, using custom MI450 architecture GPUs and Venice CPUs.

Market Interpretation: Institutions believe this move helps AMD accelerate its catch-up with Nvidia in the AI chip market, and the equity binding further strengthens strategic synergy between the two, alleviating market concerns about AMD's long-term competitiveness.

Investment Insight: The trend of diversifying AI capital expenditures is clear, and second-tier chip manufacturers like AMD have opened up valuation recovery space; it is recommended to pay attention to beneficiaries in the upstream and downstream of the supply chain.

2. AMD - $60 Billion Chip Order from Meta + Equity Binding

Event Overview: Details of the above agreement, AMD's stock price rose over 8.77% during trading, closing at a high.

Market Interpretation: Wall Street views this as AMD's "second Nvidia-level" large order, combined with performance-based warrant design, enhancing certainty by linking long-term revenue and stock price.

Investment Insight: Strong short-term catalysts, and in the medium to long term, actual shipment progress needs to be tracked, suitable for allocation in AI hardware themes.

3. HP Inc - Q1 Revenue Exceeds Expectations but Memory Costs Drag Down Guidance

Event Overview: Q1 revenue for fiscal year 2026 reached $14.44 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, exceeding expectations; Q2 non-GAAP EPS guidance of $0.70-0.76 has a median lower than the consensus expectation of $0.75, maintaining but leaning towards the lower end for the full-year guidance. The CFO clearly pointed out that the continuous rise in memory prices is a major pressure. After hours, the stock fell over 6%.

Market Interpretation: Institutions have lowered short-term profit expectations, emphasizing that cyclical cost pressures outweigh demand recovery.

Investment Insight: The fundamentals of the PC/printing business are stable, pay attention to the turning point of memory prices, suitable for swing trading.

4. Alibaba - Launches Qwen 3.5 Series of Medium Models

Event Overview: The Qwen team launched the Qwen 3.5 series of medium models (Flash, 35B-A3B, 122B-A10B, 27B, etc.), adopting a hybrid architecture, significantly reducing activation parameters, and outperforming previous generations in agent task performance, with context support reaching millions of tokens.

Market Interpretation: The open-source + efficient route strengthens local AI competitiveness, with significant cost advantages.

Investment Insight: The acceleration of AI application landing in China, pay attention to long-term opportunities in Alibaba Cloud and related ecosystem targets.

5. Circle - Stablecoin Leader Q4 Earnings About to Be Released

Event Overview: Circle (CRCL) will announce its Q4 and full-year earnings for fiscal year 2025 before the market opens on February 25, with USDC circulation exceeding $74 billion, doubling year-on-year.

Market Interpretation: The market is concerned about the impact of the interest rate environment on reserve income and whether the growth of payment business can offset it.

Investment Insight: The trend of stablecoin ecosystem expansion remains unchanged, pay attention to USDC market share and progress in diversified income.

# 4. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

1. Circle's Q4 earnings are approaching release, with USDC circulation continuing to double.
2. Analysis: The "fair price gap" for Bitcoin points to $45,000, with AI concerns dragging down the stock market and gold.
3. Bitwise acquires staking service provider Chorus One, strengthening multi-chain staking layout.
4. Ethereum ecosystem DeFi TVL slightly rebounds but remains under pressure.
5. 21Shares spot SUI ETF has begun trading on Nasdaq.

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

Important Event Forecast

• Circle Earnings Report: Pre-market release - USDC circulation and payment business progress
• NVIDIA Earnings Report: Post-market release - Key node for validating AI demand
• Trump's State of the Union: Evening Eastern Time - Details on AI energy policy

Bitget Research Institute Perspective:

The US stock software sector rebounded significantly after Anthropic's conference, with all three major indices rising, reflecting the market's rapid acceptance of the narrative of AI "collaboration rather than disruption"; the $60 billion Meta-AMD agreement further boosts confidence in the chip supply chain, but the Fed officials' frequent signals of rising neutral interest rates make the path for rate cuts more cautious. Precious metals and crude oil are supported by geopolitical and freight factors, with the dollar slightly strengthening. Overall, institutions believe the current rebound is a technical repair rather than a trend reversal, suggesting investors pay attention to NVIDIA's earnings report and the implementation of Trump's energy policy for guidance on risk appetite, with short-term volatility likely remaining high, and a balanced allocation between AI hardware and defensive assets is recommended.

Disclaimer: The above content is organized by AI search, with human verification for publication, and does not constitute any investment advice.