Is ETH breaking below 1900 really an opportunity? Why do I still have confidence in Ethereum in 2026?

Author: Mr.Bai

As of February 2026, the crypto market seems to have entered a winter. ETH has fallen below 1900, marking one of the worst starts to the year in history, down over 60% from its peak in 2025.
Market sentiment is extremely fearful, and even insiders selling coins has intensified the pressure.

1. Let's talk about the technical aspect first

This is something I have repeatedly emphasized in the community. On the K-line, we have experienced a sharp drop and sideways movement, and the recent decline perfectly aligns with the expected final drop!
What I can do is encourage everyone to hold on, and we have even arrived at a perfect dollar-cost averaging zone. You can refer to the trends of 2022; this is the final drop!

2. Now let's look at the macro aspect

Ethereum's daily active addresses in February remained between 550,000 and over 700,000 (mainnet), having approached/broken through the new high range of over 1 million in January-February. The 7-day/30-day moving averages are still trending upwards, indicating an increase in real users and DApp activity.

On February 7, the single-day trading volume reached a historical high of 2.896M, and on February 22, it remained above 1.7 million. Overall, early 2026 saw a significant rebound compared to the same period in 2025, with stablecoin and L2 activity being the main drivers.

The total supply of stablecoins on the ETH chain is approximately 158-183B USD (accounting for over 50% of the global total), continuing to rise and reach new highs from 2025 to 2026, indicating sustained growth in stablecoins!

The ETH reserves on exchanges have been continuously decreasing, with total exchange ETH reserves dropping to 16.2M ETH (the lowest since 2016), and there has been a continuous net outflow at the beginning of 2026.

Therefore, combined with staking lock-up, the effective liquid supply has tightened significantly (about 45%+ ETH is now illiquid). Although the ETH price is under short-term pressure, the network fundamentals are on the brink of an explosion in February 2026.

3. Institutions are buying, not fleeing

While retail investors are panicking, institutions are positioning themselves. ETF fund inflows are recovering, and corporate treasuries are allocating ETH at low levels. Traditional financial institutions continue to create tokenized products on Ethereum.

In January, there was a net outflow of 253 million USD, but on February 17, there was a single-day net inflow of 48.63 million USD (BlackRock ETHA leading with +22.89 million), and on February 13, it also turned positive with +10.26 million.
Despite recent fluctuations, there have been multiple instances of positive inflows/zero outflows, with cumulative AUM still exceeding 11.5 billion USD, indicating that institutions are starting to reposition around the $1900 mark.

4. 2026 Roadmap Focus

Upgrade directions include:

• Increasing Gas limits

• Enhancing L2 interoperability

• Expanding zero-knowledge infrastructure

• Account abstraction

• Quantum resistance

Harden the L1: post-quantum cryptography, FOCIL anti-censorship, network resilience testing. Vitalik also emphasizes "it's no longer UX vs security, but enhancing the security of UX."

So, if the macro environment is stable and funds are flowing back, ETH does not need hype; it just needs to be repriced.
This is not blind optimism; I firmly believe that winter is often the starting point for the biggest rebounds.