The founder of the "Black Swan Fund" warns: the S&P 500 may drop sharply after reaching 8000 points

According to Jinshi News, Mark Spitznagel, founder and chief investment officer of the "Black Swan Fund" Universa Investments, stated that the upward trend of the U.S. stock market is far from over—at least for now.

In a recent letter to investors, Spitznagel wrote that in the coming year, the market will continue to be in the "Goldilocks zone—where inflation and interest rates are declining, the economy is slowing but not excessively, and market sentiment turns euphoric—the stock market will continue to rise and end with a surge." However, he added that "the largest bubble in human history" has now entered its final stage.

Spitznagel's hedge fund has been around for nearly two decades, focusing on tail risk hedging, which protects investors' portfolios from the impact of the next major crash. He stated that as long as the economy remains resilient, the stock market will continue to rise—a view he has maintained since the end of 2022. In an interview, he mentioned that market euphoria could drive the S&P 500 index to 8,000 points or even higher—followed by a sharp reversal.

What is concerning is that if the Federal Reserve maintains the current interest rate levels for an extended period, companies will begin to struggle to raise funds. Spitznagel noted that although the economy appears resilient, there is a lag effect in monetary policy, and the Federal Reserve's excessive focus on lagging indicators like inflation has already fallen behind the situation.

"The Federal Reserve is currently holding steady, and as the economy gradually worsens, the market will expect more easing policies to be introduced," he said. In this context, the stock market will rise on expectations of more rate cuts, only to quickly decline during an economic slowdown. "At some point, the Federal Reserve will be powerless to turn things around, just like what happened in 2007 and 2008."