Analyst: The daily net buying volume of Bitcoin is still greater than the mining volume, but the decline in tech stocks may lead to continued pressure on Bitcoin

MEXC Research Chief Analyst Shawn Young stated that cryptocurrency traders are expected to drive Bitcoin prices back to $100,000. Shawn Young said, "Although buyers are not purchasing digital assets on a large scale like they did a few months ago, the amount of Bitcoin they buy daily still exceeds the daily mining output. This creates a net positive supply dynamic that could trigger a short-term rebound." Some analysts warn that the situation could worsen. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mike McGlone even predicts that Bitcoin prices could evaporate by 85%, ultimately falling to $10,000. His reasoning is that the soaring stock market has absorbed market volatility, while gold and silver have outperformed Bitcoin as safe-haven assets. Additionally, the industry seems to have lost confidence in President Trump's push for cryptocurrency, which will drive prices lower.

Cryptocurrency investment firm Keyrock researcher Ben Harvey and others believe that Bitcoin's next move is not determined by internal crypto factors, but rather by macro factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and institutional investors buying Bitcoin ETFs. Bloomberg data shows that concerns over an AI spending bubble have triggered a surge in credit default swap trading—these complex financial contracts were almost ignored a year ago. These contracts are similar to insurance, paying out when companies cannot repay their debts. Currently, Alphabet's nearly $900 million debt and Meta's nearly $700 million debt are linked to these contracts. This means that hedge funds are increasingly using these derivatives to hedge against downside risks. In other words, investors are hedging against a significant market sell-off that could weigh on Bitcoin prices.

The tech stocks referred to as "AI panic trades" have been under pressure since January. BlackRock's flagship tech ETF (which tracks industry leaders like Microsoft, Oracle, and Palantir) has seen a decline of just over 23% year-to-date. Analysts expect that large tech companies will increase their borrowing from $165 billion in 2025 to $400 billion for investments in AI data centers, which could total trillions of dollars—if AI projects fail to generate returns, investor risks will increase. Young stated that Bitcoin trading trends are aligned with tech stocks, thus "being the first to bear the impact of liquidity or capital shifts."