CertiK: The prediction market is expected to achieve a fourfold increase in trading volume by 2025, reaching $63.5 billion, while the industry faces security and regulatory challenges

According to the "2026 Skynet Prediction Market Report" released by CertiK, the trading volume of prediction markets is expected to grow to $63.5 billion in 2025, achieving a fourfold increase, with Kalshi, Polymarket, and Opinion becoming the dominant platforms. However, this growth in scale also brings new risks, including oracle vulnerabilities, administrator key abuse, and Web2.5 architecture issues.

The report notes that prediction markets have been deemed legal financial products in the U.S. through CFTC rulings, but are banned in several EU countries as unauthorized gambling. Additionally, regulatory differences among U.S. states may further complicate compliance. In December 2025, a security incident involving Polymarket's third-party certification provider exposed centralized failure points in the hybrid Web2/Web3 architecture.

The research also estimates that during the peak of airdrops, manual trading volume on some platforms reached 60%, severely distorting liquidity metrics. CertiK predicts that in 2026, prediction markets will see enhanced technical privacy and accelerated institutional adoption, but platforms must simultaneously address issues such as liquidity maintenance, security infrastructure development, and the sustainability of revenue models to achieve long-term growth.