Matrixport Research: Bitcoin Loses Key Support, Rebound May Just Be a "Breather" Rather Than a Reversal

After a rapid pullback, the price of Bitcoin has fallen to a key downward target range. From a macro perspective, the rebound in U.S. growth indicators, stronger fiscal measures, and a mild weakening of the dollar should logically provide support for risk assets; however, in terms of actual market performance, Bitcoin has yet to give a clear and sustainable reversal confirmation signal, with the market still caught between "macro improvement" and "insufficient technical repair."

The change in technical structure is particularly critical. The important trend levels that were previously used to distinguish between "phase rebounds" and "structural declines" have been broken and lost, with previous support zones now turning into resistance above. In the absence of a compelling new narrative or clear catalysts, the recent rebound should be viewed more as a corrective bounce after the decline, rather than a shift in trend or structure.

Key Trend Levels Lost: Rebound Still Belongs to Corrective Recovery

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin continues to operate below the 21-week moving average. Until it reclaims and stabilizes above this average, short-term rebounds are unlikely to be seen as confirmation of a trend reversal. Historical experience shows that when both mid-term and long-term moving average support structures are simultaneously broken, the market is more likely to enter a prolonged phase of weakness.

The current price structure bears similarities to the previous cycle: after forming a phase high, it experienced a brief consolidation but failed to continue, subsequently entering the next downward phase. In terms of rhythm, even if macro conditions improve, prices may not immediately stop falling; they often still undergo a period of retreat or weak consolidation, with the focus shifting further down.

Position Structure is Crowded: ETF Funds More Likely to Turn into Upper Pressure

The constraints at the funding structure level cannot be ignored either. After Bitcoin entered a sharp decline phase, the ETF holdings did not significantly retreat with the price. Since early 2025, there has been a cumulative net inflow of about $20 billion into ETFs, even as the price trend has significantly weakened during the same period.

It is estimated that since the launch of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF, investors have cumulatively bought about $54.3 billion worth of Bitcoin through the ETF channel, with an average purchase cost of about $90,000 per coin. At the current price level, the corresponding unrealized loss scale has reached the tens of billions. When a large amount of capital is in a state of unrealized loss, without a new narrative or incremental buying support, this portion of the existing capital is more likely to turn into upper supply during a rebound, rather than forming effective support.

In summary, although the marginal improvement in the macro environment provides some external conditions for risk assets, under the backdrop of an unhealed technical structure, a crowded position structure, and weakened participation, macro positives are unlikely to translate into sustained upward momentum in the short term. Bitcoin currently resembles a top area in the later stage of the cycle, where selling pressure during the rebound may still outweigh the absorption of new funds.

Until the trend is clearly reversed, a restrained strategy should be maintained. If attempting tactical participation, it must be based on stricter stop-loss and position discipline. Judging solely from the current structure, $73,000 is unlikely to become the final bottom of this Bitcoin cycle.

The above views are partly derived from Matrix on Target. Contact us for the complete report from Matrix on Target.

Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets can involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.