Matrixport: Affected by funding structure and participation, Bitcoin is expected to turn upward in the short term

Matrixport's weekly report indicates that after a rapid pullback, Bitcoin has reached a key downward target range, but the market is still caught between "improving macro conditions" and "insufficient technical recovery."

Growth indicators are rebounding, fiscal strength is increasing, and the dollar is weakening, which should support risk assets; however, Bitcoin has yet to provide a clear and sustainable reversal confirmation. Technically, the key trend lines that were previously used to distinguish between "phase rebounds" and "structural downtrends" have been breached and lost, and prior support zones have turned into resistance above. Therefore, the recent rebound appears more like a corrective recovery after a decline, rather than a shift in trend or structure.

The position structure has further amplified the upward pressure: a large amount of capital has entered at higher price levels, with limited reduction during the pullback. In the absence of a compelling new narrative or catalyst, this existing capital is more likely to translate into upward supply pressure rather than an effective source of support.

From a cyclical perspective, it currently resembles the top area of a later cycle. Historically, in similar phases, even when macro conditions improve, prices do not necessarily stop falling immediately; they often experience a period of decline or weak consolidation, with the focus ultimately shifting further down. The reason lies in the capital structure and participation: when the chips are crowded and participation weakens, capital that entered at high levels tends to prioritize recovering costs and reducing risks during rebounds, making selling pressure more likely to overshadow the absorption of new capital, and macro positives are harder to translate into sustained upward momentum in the short term.