Data: CryptoQuant: Bitcoin has fallen below the 365-day moving average for the first time since March 2022, potentially further dipping to the $60,000–$70,000 range

According to market news, CryptoQuant's weekly report shows that the Bitcoin market has entered a bear market phase.

Here are the main analysis points:

• On-chain indicators show bear market signals: Bitcoin's price reached a peak of $126,000 in early October 2025, at which time the bull market score index was 80 (bullish). However, after the liquidation event on October 10, the index turned bearish and has now dropped to zero, with the current Bitcoin price hovering around $75,000, indicating a weak market structure.

• Institutional demand has significantly decreased: In 2025, the U.S. spot ETF purchased 46,000 BTC, while in 2026, it net sold 10,600 BTC, resulting in a demand gap of 56,000 BTC compared to last year, continuously exerting selling pressure.

• U.S. spot demand is sluggish: Despite the price drop, the Coinbase premium has remained negative since mid-October 2025, indicating low participation from U.S. investors. This contrasts sharply with previous bull markets driven by U.S. demand.

• Liquidity conditions are tightening: The market capitalization growth of USDT has turned negative for the first time in the past 60 days (-$133 million), marking the first contraction since October 2023. The expansion of stablecoins peaked at $15.9 billion at the end of October 2025, and the current decline aligns with the characteristics of bear market liquidity contraction. Additionally, the growth of explicit spot demand has plummeted by 93% over the past year, from 1.1 million BTC to 77,000 BTC.

• Technical structure shows downside risk: Bitcoin's price has fallen below the 365-day moving average for the first time since March 2022, declining 23% over 83 days, performing weaker than the bear market in early 2022. The loss of key on-chain support levels indicates that Bitcoin may further dip into the $60,000 to $70,000 range.