QCP Capital: The U.S. government shutdown crisis has eased, and $75,000 has become a key price level for Bitcoin

QCP Capital stated in an official channel that, on a macro level, the clouds of a government shutdown in the U.S. have dissipated, but the key takeaway is that fiscal standoffs may quickly resurface. Funding for the Department of Homeland Security has only been extended until February 13, which means another deadline risk still exists. Additionally, after the U.S. shot down an Iranian drone approaching the "USS Abraham Lincoln" aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea, crude oil prices are rebuilding a moderate geopolitical risk premium, but news on the diplomatic front continues to limit its upside potential.

Domestically in the U.S., the political maneuvering surrounding the Federal Reserve is heating up again. Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, which reintroduces uncertainty. If investors begin to bet on the increased likelihood of larger rate cuts later this year, this could marginally support risk assets and weaken the dollar, but it will also shift attention to the balance sheet. Warsh has indicated a preference for a quicker reduction of the balance sheet, which will directly impact the underlying liquidity mechanisms of the repo market.

A disturbing reminder is that pressure may suddenly emerge when reserves are short at critical junctures. The options market has reinforced cautious signals. Even amidst spot rebounds, short-term (front-end) implied volatility still has buying support, and at-the-money option volatility remains elevated, with the term structure trending towards a slight spot premium, indicating that the market is still paying a premium for the risk of recent price gaps. The downward skew has steepened sharply, and butterfly spread options remain expensive, reflecting that demand is concentrated on convexity protection against a collapse.

From a tactical perspective, $75,000 is a key turning point. If it can be held and positions are rebuilt with funding rates returning to normal, this level seems to be a reasonable place to increase risk exposure. If it fails to hold, market sentiment may quickly shift to a defensive stance.