CryptoQuant CEO: If MSTR does not significantly reduce its holdings, Bitcoin may struggle to experience a historically deep crash

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju posted on the X platform that the current decline in Bitcoin is mainly due to ongoing selling pressure and a lack of new capital. He pointed out that the Realized Cap has recently flattened, indicating that there has been no significant new capital entering the market. In this environment, if the total market cap declines, it typically does not belong to a bull market structure.

Ki Young Ju further stated that due to the influence of ETF funds and continuous buying by Strategy, early holders still have significant unrealized profits and have gradually been realizing profits since early last year. Previously, strong capital inflows had supported Bitcoin around the $100,000 mark, but the related incremental capital has clearly weakened now. He believes that Strategy was one of the important driving forces behind this round of price increase, and if Michael Saylor had not significantly reduced his holdings, the market might struggle to replicate the approximately 70% level of deep retracement seen in previous cycles. Overall, the current selling pressure is still ongoing, the market bottom has not yet been clearly defined, but this round of the bear market is more likely to present a wide range of oscillation patterns.