Matrixport: BTC is still in a bear market environment, but maintains a relatively positive outlook on overall risk assets

Matrixport's analysis on platform X indicates that, based on on-chain data and technical indicators, Bitcoin remains in a bearish environment. The most intuitive signal is that the price is still below the 21-week moving average. At the same time, U.S. midterm election years are typically accompanied by increased policy uncertainty and fluctuations in risk appetite, and this time window overlaps with the typical four-year cycle of Bitcoin, during which prices have historically been more prone to weakness.

Even so, a relatively positive outlook on overall risk assets is maintained. The re-inflation narrative is still present, and the dollar remains in a relatively weak operating range. To hedge against the pressure brought by weakening purchasing power, dollar-denominated funds typically tend to maintain a relatively high allocation to risk assets. Recently, Trump's comments on the weakening dollar have neither released clear support signals nor made strong statements, leading the market to interpret this as an increased tolerance for further dollar weakness. Coupled with some international funds increasing their allocation to non-U.S. assets and reducing concentration in U.S. assets, under this backdrop, re-inflation trades may still find support in the short term.