Analyst: After the plunge, the overall position structure of the BTC market still leans bullish, with the risk of further deleveraging

Cryptocurrency market analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that the "Bitcoin futures long and short liquidation dominance" data has reached 97%, with the 30-day moving average rising to 31.4%. This means that almost all forced liquidations are coming from long positions, and buyers have been under systemic pressure over the past month.

Extreme values of oscillators are often synchronized with peaks of forced selling and may bring about short-term stabilization. However, in the absence of other confirmation signals, this does not indicate a trend reversal—at least a return of the oscillator to zero or a decline in the 30-day average is needed to form a sustainable "local bottom." Axel added that despite the price crash and a series of liquidations, the funding rate for BTC remains positive: yesterday's reading was an annualized 43.2%. Although significantly lower than the peaks of 100%+ in October and November, it indicates that the market's demand for long exposure still dominates.

In the past month, negative values have only appeared briefly and sporadically. The funding rate remains positive amid large-scale liquidations, increasing the risk of the market deleveraging again: this means that the market is quickly rebuilding long positions or is not yet ready to fully clear out. A complete "derivatives surrender" is usually accompanied by the funding rate turning neutral or negative—something that has not yet occurred. The two charts together depict a scenario where deleveraging may not be complete: liquidations have severely impacted longs, but the overall position structure still leans bullish.