The probability of Kevin Warsh becoming the chairman of the Federal Reserve has increased, and the market is concerned that the return of "monetary discipline" could be negative for Bitcoin

As the probability of Kevin Warsh becoming the next Federal Reserve Chairman significantly increases in the prediction market, Bitcoin further declines, nearing a low of $81,000.

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, points out that the market generally views Kevin Warsh's regained policy influence as a bearish factor for Bitcoin, due to his long-standing emphasis on monetary discipline, higher real interest rates, and tightening liquidity. His policy framework tends to regard crypto assets as "speculative products in a loose monetary environment," rather than tools for hedging against currency devaluation. Higher real interest rates mean that the true cost of financing rises after accounting for inflation, which typically suppresses demand for risk assets, including Bitcoin. Additionally, several observers believe that a hawkish stance and underestimation of deflation risks may have exacerbated economic downward pressure that year. If similar thinking continues, it could lead to higher unemployment rates, slower recovery pace, and greater deflation risks.