Bitget UEX Daily Report | Federal Reserve maintains interest rates with a hawkish stance; Trump threatens Iran, gold and silver retreat after hitting new highs; storage sector strong, Seagate rises over 19% (January 29, 2026)

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady, Powell's remarks lean hawkish

• The Federal Reserve maintains the federal funds rate range at 3.5%-3.75%, marking the first pause after three consecutive rate cuts, with governors Milan and Waller casting dissenting votes in favor of a 25 basis point cut.
• Powell pointed out that inflation exceeding expectations is mainly due to tariffs rather than demand impacts, with core PCE slightly above 2%, and expects tariff effects to peak and then decline this year.
• Market impact: After the decision, the probability of a rate cut in March dropped to 11.9%. Analysts believe the Fed's focus has shifted to inflation, limiting the space for rate cuts in the short term, which may increase market volatility and support a rebound in the dollar.

International Commodities

Gold and silver sharply retreat after hitting highs, gold briefly approaches $5,600

• Affected by geopolitical tensions and dollar fluctuations, spot gold and silver sharply fell after reaching historic highs, with gold peaking near $5,600 and silver approaching $120.
• Trump's threats against Iran heightened risk aversion, but after the Fed's hawkish statements, the market shifted, with gold retreating about 1.64% and silver about 1.12%.
• Market impact: Short-term volatility may increase, potentially stimulating more risk-averse capital inflows, but if the dollar stabilizes and rebounds, it may suppress further upside for precious metals.

Macroeconomic Policy

U.S. Treasury Secretary reiterates strong dollar policy, denies intervention in yen market

• Bessent emphasized that the U.S. has long pursued a strong dollar policy and does not intervene in the foreign exchange market to support the yen, stating that a reduction in the trade deficit will boost the dollar.
• He also mentioned that the risk of a government shutdown is unclear, urging Democrats to avoid it; negotiations for the USMCA have resumed, with the U.S. avoiding proactive disputes.
• Market impact: This stance alleviates short-term selling pressure on the dollar, pushing the dollar index to rebound, but geopolitical uncertainties and investigations into the Fed's independence may continue to disrupt exchange rate stability.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Up 1.94% + Retracement after consecutive days of hitting highs.
• Spot Silver: Up 1.16% + Increased volatility at high levels.
• WTI Crude Oil: Up 0.65% + Driven by a weaker dollar and reduced inventories.
• Dollar Index: Down about 0.18% + Dominated by Fed hawkishness and tariff concerns.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Down about 0.4%, ≈ $89,000 + Market short-term volatility is weak, with prices still consolidating at high levels, under pressure near the $90k threshold.
• ETH: Slightly down about 0.5%, ≈ $3,005 + Relatively stronger resistance compared to BTC, but pressure exists near the $3,000 threshold, with short-term volatility influenced by capital flows and leverage.
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Down 2.4% + Driven by Fed decisions and regulatory uncertainties.
• Market Liquidation Situation: Long liquidation of $306M/short liquidation of $319M + Total liquidation amount of $625M.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Up 0.02% + Continues to stabilize after fluctuations.
• S&P 500: Down 0.01% + Briefly broke through the 7000 mark during trading.
• Nasdaq: Up 0.17% + Strong pull from the semiconductor sector.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• Apple: Down 0.7%, affected by overall market fluctuations, lacking new product catalysts.
• Amazon: Down 0.68%, strong e-commerce demand but rising logistics costs weigh down.
• Meta: Down 0.63%, but post-market earnings exceeded expectations, with strong advertising business.
• Microsoft: Down over 6% post-market, concerns over slowing cloud business growth and high AI spending.
• Nvidia: Up 1.59%, sustained demand for AI chips benefits from the semiconductor rally.
• Tesla: Up 0.13%, first annual revenue decline but Robotaxi expansion boosts confidence.
• Alphabet (Google): Slightly up 0.44%, stable search business, accelerated AI integration. Overall, tech giants showed mixed performance, mainly influenced by earnings season, with cloud and AI spending being core differentiating factors.

Sector Movement Observation

Storage concept stocks up about 8%+

• Representative stocks: Seagate Technology, up over 19%; Western Digital, up over 10%.
• Driving factors: AI demand drives prosperity in the memory market, with Samsung chip profits soaring, boosting the overall sector.

Semiconductor Index up 1.73%+

• Representative stocks: Intel, up over 11%; Texas Instruments, up over 9%.
• Driving factors: Philadelphia Semiconductor Index hits a historic high, boosted by Nvidia collaboration and internal buybacks.

# 3. In-Depth Stock Analysis

1. Tesla - First annual revenue decline but progress in robotics business

Event Overview: Tesla's fourth-quarter revenue was $24.9 billion, with earnings per share of $0.50, better than expected, but annual revenue declined by 3% year-on-year, marking the first annual decline in history. The company plans to expand Robotaxi to seven U.S. markets and launch the third-generation Optimus robot; on January 16, it signed an agreement to invest $2 billion in acquiring xAI preferred stock. Previously, the Robotaxi and robotics business had been developing steadily, against the backdrop of intensified competition in the electric vehicle market and supply chain optimization.

Market Interpretation: Institutional views are divided; Goldman Sachs believes Robotaxi expansion will drive long-term growth, while Morgan Stanley worries that the annual revenue decline reflects weak demand, necessitating attention to AI integration effects.

Investment Insight: Short-term volatility may increase, but the potential of the robotics business can serve as a long-term layout point; pay attention to the progress of Robotaxi implementation.

2. Microsoft - Slowing cloud business growth and high AI spending

Event Overview: Microsoft's Q2 FY2026 revenue and profit exceeded expectations, with cloud business first breaking $50 billion, but Azure revenue growth slightly declined, and record capital expenditures raised concerns about AI returns, leading to a post-market stock drop of over 6%. The backdrop is a surge in AI investment, but the return cycle is uncertain, compounded by fierce competition in the overall cloud market.

Market Interpretation: Analysts like Wedbush believe that while AI spending is high, it is strategically necessary and beneficial in the long term; Barclays warns that slowing growth may indicate a growth bottleneck, necessitating monitoring of the competitive landscape.

Investment Insight: Short-term pressure exists, but if AI layout proves effective, it could revive valuations; it is recommended to observe the return rate in the next quarter.

3. Meta - Revenue guidance exceeds expectations, strong advertising business

Event Overview: In the fourth quarter, earnings per share were $8.88, and revenue was $59.89 billion, both exceeding expectations; advertising revenue reached $58.1 billion, accounting for 97% of total revenue. Daily active users reached 3.58 billion, with first-quarter sales guidance of $53.5-56.5 billion, higher than estimates. The backdrop is a recovery in digital advertising and optimization of metaverse investments.

Market Interpretation: UBS views it as a beneficiary of advertising recovery, with bright guidance boosting confidence; Citigroup emphasizes stable user growth but warns of regulatory risks.

Investment Insight: The advertising-led model is solid, with strong short-term upward momentum; pay attention to the impact of privacy regulations.

4. Intel - CFO buyback and Nvidia collaboration boost

Event Overview: CFO Zinsner purchased nearly $250,000 worth of stock at $42.5, marking the first internal buyback in 2024; supply chain sources revealed that Nvidia's 2028 Feynman platform will partially adopt Intel's 18A/14A processes, with packaging accounting for up to 25%. The backdrop is competition in chip foundry and expansion of AI demand.

Market Interpretation: JPMorgan believes the collaboration enhances competitiveness, and internal buyback signals are positive; Bank of America warns that process challenges remain, necessitating verification of execution capability.

Investment Insight: Collaboration may open new growth avenues; short-term focus can be on technological implementation.

5. IBM - Strong revenue growth in the fourth quarter

Event Overview: Revenue was $19.69 billion, up 12% year-on-year, with software revenue growing 14% and consulting revenue growing 3.4%; operating earnings per share were $4.52, with free cash flow increasing by 23%. The backdrop is a rebound in demand for cloud and AI services, with a post-market increase of over 7%.

Market Interpretation: Goldman Sachs is optimistic about software business expansion, with strong cash flow supporting buybacks; Deutsche Bank points out that consulting growth is moderate, necessitating observation of corporate spending trends.

Investment Insight: Improvement in cash flow is favorable for dividends; it is recommended to hold for the medium to long term.

# 4. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

1. Tether secretly purchases 1-2 tons of gold weekly, with reserves reaching 140 tons.

2. Fidelity is set to launch a dollar-pegged stablecoin FIDD on Ethereum.

3. Citrea mainnet launches, supporting Bitcoin-linked lending and trading.

4. The White House convenes banks and crypto firms to discuss legislative compromise paths.

5. The U.S. SEC releases a statement on tokenized securities, clarifying classification methods and legal applicability.

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

Important Event Forecast

• ECB Executive Schnabel speaks: 09:00 - Focus on signals regarding Eurozone monetary policy.
• U.S. 2-year floating rate Treasury auction: 00:30 - Monitor bond market liquidity.

Bitget Research Institute Viewpoint:

U.S. stock indices maintain high-level fluctuations after the Fed's hawkish stance, with the Dow and Nasdaq slightly rising due to the semiconductor sector, but the S&P's retreat after touching 7000 reflects profit-taking pressure. Goldman Sachs points out that gold and silver prices are supported even during high-level corrections, with the weak dollar and geopolitical risks driving gold prices up over 1.6% and silver prices up 1.1%, but if Fed inflation concerns intensify, it may suppress gains. JPMorgan analyzes that WTI crude oil rebounded 0.65%, supported by reduced inventories and a declining dollar, but global demand uncertainties limit the upside. In the forex market, the dollar index fell 0.5%, and while Bessent's strong dollar statement temporarily alleviated selling pressure, overall weakness fueled commodity rebounds. Overall, short-term risk aversion dominates, and attention should be paid to the Fed's subsequent guidance on asset rotation impacts.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search, with human verification for publication, and should not be considered as any investment advice.