The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March has dropped to 11.9%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged has risen to 88.1%

Jan 29, 2026 04:25:44

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According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points by March is 11.9% (down from 15.5% before the meeting), while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 88.1% (up from 84.2% before the meeting). The probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 0.1% (down from 0.4% before the meeting). By April, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 24.5%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 73.5%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 2%.

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