Your "get-rich-quick" mentality is the main culprit hindering you from making big money

Author: Pickle Cat

I bought my first Bitcoin in 2013.

As an old veteran who has lived through more than a decade of cycles until 2026, I have seen the market create countless ways to bring people to their knees.

I have found that throughout this long time, there seems to be an undeniable iron law:

That is, in this circle, the definition of "winning" is never about how much money you made.

Everyone who has touched this circle has at least made money once, no matter how inexperienced they are or how small their capital is; they can become a temporary "genius."

So what does "winning" really mean? It means you made money and, years later, you can still hold onto that money.

In other words, if you want to change your fate through the crypto world, you must first realize that this is not a competition of "who makes the most" or "who doubles their money the fastest," but rather a competition of "who can survive until the end."

But the reality is harsh; most "geniuses" become fuel, and only a small portion of people can successfully survive to the next cycle. Among these survivors, those who can truly achieve compound growth are even rarer.

After October 11, market sentiment returned to the familiar dull period for me.

That day, I lost many friends whom I thought would fight alongside me in the crypto world for many years. Although this kind of "farewell" has played out countless times, I still instinctively opened up some reflections I have written intermittently over the years.

I think it's time to organize my thoughts. To clarify that ultimate question: What exactly are the replicable traits that allow one to survive in the crypto world until the end?

To this end, I also talked to a few old friends who are still active in the crypto space, and thus, this article was born.

This article is my exclusive insights, a labor of love, and it will attempt to explain the following points:

1. Why can some people survive in this cyclical "sea of blood," while others can only return empty-handed?

2. How can one maintain hope even when tortured by a bear market?

3. What should you do to become the kind of person described above?

To thoroughly understand this principle, we must first return to basics and forget everything others have told you about this circle.

"The only true wisdom is in knowing you know nothing." --- Socrates

The article will briefly explain the history of the crypto world and its essence. Most new entrants to the space tend to overlook these elements; after all, understanding this is not as immediately gratifying (or painful) as opening a position to make money (or lose money).

But from my personal experience, it is precisely these overlooked aspects that are the secrets to being unafraid of bull and bear markets, just as philosopher George Santayana said: "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."

In this article, I will help you understand:

1. What exactly can make the crypto market bullish again, and how to distinguish between "market initiation" vs "dead cat bounce"? This includes three case studies and a basic "judgment criteria" that you can directly use.

2. What should you do to increase your chances of catching the "next big wave"?

3. What common replicable traits do those who can cross multiple cycles of bloodshed and continue to profit share?

If you have ever let your wallet be "decentralized" in the crypto world, then this article is written for you.

I. The Real Driving Force Behind the Crypto Market's Breakout

Whenever people ask why the crypto market is stagnant, the answers are almost always the same:

A new narrative hasn't emerged!

Institutions haven't fully entered the market!

The technological revolution hasn't exploded!

It's all the fault of those market makers and KOLs!

It's because certain exchanges/projects/companies messed up!

These factors are indeed important, but solving them has never been the real reason to end the crypto winter.

If you have experienced enough bull and bear markets, you will see a clear pattern:

The resurgence of the crypto market has never been because it became more like traditional systems, but because it reminded people of the suffocating aspects of the old system.

The stagnation of crypto is not due to a lack of innovation, nor is it solely a liquidity issue.

At its core, it is collaboration failure—more precisely, stagnation occurs when the following three factors fail simultaneously:

1. Capital is completely disinterested.

2. Sentiment is exhausted.

3. The current consensus can no longer explain "why we should care about this circle."

In such a situation, weak prices are not because crypto "is dead," but because there are no new elements to create synergy among new participants.

This is the root of confusion for most people.

They always believe that the next cycle will be triggered by some "better, more explosive" product, feature, or new narrative. But these are merely effects, not causes. The real turning point will only emerge after a deeper consensus upgrade is completed.

If you cannot see this logic, you will continue to be led by market noise, becoming the easiest target for those holding the bag.

This is why some people are constantly chasing the "next hot spot," trying to be the ultimate diamond hands, only to find that they entered too late or, worse, bought the air of air coins.

If you want to cultivate a true investment instinct, one that allows you to discover opportunities early, rather than becoming a victim of despair a week after every project issues tokens, you first need to learn to distinguish:

The Difference Between Consensus and Narrative

The fact is, every cycle that drags the crypto world out of winter is always the same thing: the evolution of consensus.

"Consensus," in this circle, refers to humanity finding a new way to financialize some "abstract elements" (such as beliefs, judgment, identity, etc.) through cryptocurrency and to engage in large-scale collaboration around it.

Please note: Consensus is not the same as narrative. Most people's cognitive bias starts here.

Narrative is a shared story. Consensus is shared behavior.

Narrative is spoken, consensus is acted upon. Narrative attracts attention, consensus retains the crowd.

• Only narrative without action → Short-term carnival

• Only action without narrative → Evolution offstage

• Both present → Only then will the true long cycle begin

To understand the nuances here, you need to take a long-term view and approach it from a broader perspective.

When you quickly skim through the brief history of crypto, you will find:

The underlying essence of all narratives is aggregation—and this is consensus.

In 2017, ICO was the top "coordination" technique of that era. It was essentially a coordination mechanism that gathered people who believed in the same story and pooled their funds and beliefs in one place.

It was basically saying: "I have a PDF and a dream, want to bet on it?"

Later, IDO took this "coordination" to decentralized exchanges, turning fundraising into a "ceremony" of free play without permission.

Then came the DeFi summer of 2020, which aggregated "financial labor." We became the back-office employees of that never-closing bank: lending, collateralizing, arbitraging, day and night searching for that 3000% annualized return, praying every night that it wouldn't run away by morning.

Next was NFT in 2021, which aggregated not just capital but also resonated with a certain shared culture, aesthetic, or ideology. At that time, everyone was asking: "Wait, why should I buy a picture?" "It's not just a picture; it's culture."

Everyone was looking for their own "tribe," and your little image became your passport, a digital "insider" badge, your ticket to high-end group chats and exclusive parties.

By the time we reached the Meme coin era in 2024, this trend could no longer be ignored. At this point, people hardly cared about technology. What it truly aggregated was emotion, identity, and collective jokes within the circle.

What you bought was no longer a white paper. You bought that phrase "Those who understand, understand, and you know why I'm laughing (or crying) hehe." You bought a "community" that made you feel less lonely when the coin price dropped by 80%.

Now, we have welcomed prediction markets. What it aggregates is no longer emotion but judgment, a shared belief in the future. Moreover, these beliefs have truly achieved borderless flow.

Take the U.S. presidential election as an example, a focal event worldwide. But if you are not an American, you have no voting rights. However, in prediction markets, while you still cannot vote, you can place bets on your understanding. At this point, the real transformation becomes evident.

Cryptocurrency is no longer just about moving funds; it is redistributing the power of "who gets to decide."

**With each cycle, new dimensions are integrated into this large system: **money, belief, financial labor, culture, emotion, judgment, ____? What will the next one be?

You will find that every breakthrough in the crypto field is essentially about gathering people in a new way. Each stage brings not just more users but also a new reason for people to stay—that is the key.

The focus has never been on the tokens themselves; tokens are merely a topic to bring people together to play. What truly flows in this system are those things that can carry increasingly larger scales of native consensus.

To put it bluntly: What flows in that pipeline is not "money" at all. It is us, learning how to achieve increasingly larger and more complex consensus without a boss overseeing us.

If you want to understand this more thoroughly, take a look at the simple "Three Fuel Model" below:

Liquidity (macro risk appetite, dollar liquidity, leverage capacity, etc.) is like oxygen injected into the market; it determines how fast prices can move.

Narrative (why people care, how it is explained, common language) attracts attention; it determines how many people will look here.

The underlying construction of consensus (joint behavior, repeated actions, decentralized collaboration methods) affects durability; it determines who will truly stay when prices no longer provide returns.

Liquidity may temporarily push prices up, and narrative may briefly ignite attention, but only new consensus construction can empower people with a win-win action model that transcends mere buying and selling.

This is precisely why many so-called crypto bull runs often fail to become true bull runs: they have liquidity and weave good stories, but the actual consensus among people has not changed. So, how do you distinguish between "dead cat bounce" and genuine "consensus upgrade"?

Don't look at the price first—look at behavior. True consensus upgrades often reveal similar signals over time; they change how we gather together to "play."

Every time, it starts with behavior first, not price.

If you want to learn to distinguish for yourself, merely looking at concepts is not enough; you need to review crypto history, learn from it, and summarize it to have a chance to discover the key points during the next consensus upgrade.

Below are four parts, including three expanded case studies I have organized, and finally a basic checklist that can be used to identify whether the next consensus upgrade is approaching and how to judge whether the behavior driven by narrative will truly persist.

Expanded Case Study 1: The Booming ICO in 2017 VS Early Experiments

This was the first time the crypto world figured out how to massively coordinate people and capital on a global scale. Billions of dollars flowed on-chain, not directed at mature products, but injected into ideas.

Before this, there were indeed early experiments, such as Mastercoin in 2013 and Ethereum's own crowdfunding in 2014. These attempts were interesting but remained niche. They had not created a behavior model that could pull everyone into the same orbit and share it globally.

In the early years of crypto, the gameplay was actually quite simple:
Mining, trading, holding, using it to buy things (like on the dark web).

Of course, there were also many "get rich quick" Ponzi schemes at that time, but we had not yet defined a standard way for a group of strangers to collectively bet on the same dream on-chain.

The DAO in 2016 was the true "epiphany" moment for crypto. It proved that a group of strangers could pool funds solely based on code. But to be honest… the tools at that time were primitive, the technology was fragile, and it was ultimately hacked. The behavior model emerged, but it was not sustainable.

Then came 2017, and everything became "mass-producible."

Ethereum and the (now more mature) ERC-20 standard turned token issuance into a mass production process. Suddenly, the "underlying logic" for participating in the crypto world underwent a revolution:

• Fundraising activities went fully on-chain, becoming the new norm.

• White papers became "investment targets."

• We exchanged "minimum viable products" for "minimum viable PDFs."

• Telegram directly became financial infrastructure.

This brand new "trend-based" behavior attracted millions of people and drove an epic bull market. But more importantly, it permanently reshaped the DNA of the crypto world.

Even after the bubble burst, we never returned to the "old model." Anyone, anywhere could crowdfund for a protocol—this idea has taken root firmly.

Indeed, most ICOs at that time were outright scams or Ponzi schemes. Such dirty business existed before 2017 and still exists in 2026. But the way people collaborated and coordinated funds has forever changed; this is what is called a "consensus upgrade."

Expanded Case Study 2: The DeFi Summer of 2020 VS False Bulls

This era also represented a true "consensus upgrade," because even without explosive price growth, people began to use crypto assets as "financial tools." This was starkly different from the ICO era—back then, price increases and user behavior fed off each other in a symbiotic relationship.

Before 2020, apart from the ICO frenzy, the experience in the crypto world was basically "buy, hold, trade, and then pray."

• (Well, unless you were a miner… or doing something unspeakable 👀)

But now, everyone gradually formed on-chain muscle memory, permanently changing the industry. We learned:

• Lending: Deposit your crypto assets into a protocol to earn "rent."

• Collateralized loans: Obtain purchasing power without selling your crypto assets, just like mortgaging a house.

• Liquidity mining: Move funds weekly to the most profitable places, shifting capital left and right.

• Become an LP: Put your chips on the table for others to trade, then take a cut from the fees.

• Circular collateralization: Collateralize, borrow, then re-collateralize and borrow again, stacking leverage and returns.

• Governance: Actively participate in voting on protocol rules, rather than just betting on token prices.

During the DeFi summer, even when ETH and BTC were stagnant, the entire ecosystem felt "alive," and activity did not depend on a linear price increase.

It broke the "pure casino" mindset because the crypto world felt like a productive financial system for the first time, rather than just a speculative toy.

DeFi projects like Compound ($COMP), Uniswap ($UNI), Yearn Finance ($YFI), Aave ($AAVE), Curve ($CRV), Synthetix ($SNX), and MakerDAO ($MKR/$DAI) became the "banks of the internet."

Even crazy experiments like SushiSwap were significant. Its "vampire attack" directly siphoned liquidity from Uniswap, proving that incentive mechanisms could indeed coordinate funds like commanding an army.

Then… came the false revival, the false bull market, the "dead cat bounce."

For example, those food-named copycat farms—Pasta, Spaghetti, Kimchi. They did not bring any new coordinated behavior, and most vanished as quickly as they appeared.

By 2021, DeFi was still vibrant (projects like dYdX and PancakeSwap were rapidly growing), but the phase of wild growth had ended, and the crowd had long shifted to the next shiny narrative (NFT).

Looking back from today (2026), you will find that 2020 was the true birth of the "on-chain economy." Almost everything we do now (from airdrop points, chasing TVL to Layer 2 incentive activities) has adopted the playbook from 2020.

After the DeFi summer, if a new product cannot provide users with a substantial reason to stay on-chain, it will struggle to make waves.

Incentives can indeed drive short-term activity, but if these rewards do not establish a lasting community habit (a new paradigm), then the moment the subsidies run out, the project will quickly devolve into a ghost town.

Expanded Case Study 3: The NFT Era of 2021 Flip Social Habits

(During the NFT craze (early 2021 - mid-2022), the prices of BTC and ETH. 2021 was a "perfect storm": global liquidity injections, macro liquidity environment, institutional entry, NFT explosion, DeFi growth, and the public chain wars all resonated at the same time, pushing the market to its peak. This case study will focus on NFT—one of the most influential core catalysts of this cycle.)

If the DeFi summer was the geek era where everyone was focused on liquidity curves, then 2021 was the year the crypto world finally gained "personality." We no longer competed purely for yield; we began to pursue atmosphere, identity, and belonging.

Digital items were no longer just "things" that could be copied and pasted at will. They had verifiable provenance. You were not just "buying a picture"; you were buying a digital receipt that said "you are the original owner," with the entire blockchain as your witness.

This completely rewrote the social script. People no longer tried to outsmart each other in calculations but began to show identity.

Now, avatars became passports. Owning a CryptoPunk or a Bored Ape (BAYC) became a digital "proof of belonging." Your avatar was no longer just your cat; it was your ticket into the "global elite circle."

At this point, barriers also emerged. Your wallet became your membership card. If you did not have the corresponding assets, you could not enter those private Discord channels, attend insider parties, or receive exclusive airdrops.

Then there was IP ownership. BAYC granted commercial rights to holders and successfully broke the "ownership revolution" into the mainstream. Suddenly, strangers began to coordinate around their "apes," developing derivative products, music, and streetwear.

Most importantly, it attracted a large number of "outsiders." Artists, gamers, and creators who did not care about annualized returns or liquidation mechanisms suddenly found a reason to own a wallet.

Crypto was no longer just finance. It became the cultural layer of the internet.

From the perspective of consensus habits:

• Collectible series replaced liquidity pools.

• Floor price and social capital replaced total locked value.

• Belonging replaced yield.

Of course, "dead cat bounces" also followed…

First, we welcomed the wave of "imitators."

Once the model of "Bored Apes" was validated, imitators flooded in. They had stories but no soul. Countless visually similar collectible series emerged, mostly "Bored Apes but with hamsters as protagonists," promising fairy-tale-like roadmaps. Most turned into air, or rather, air with a price tag.

Next came the "wash trading" frenzy.

Platforms like LooksRare and X2Y2 tried to apply the logic of "DeFi mining" to NFTs, creating so-called "trading mining." The result was a bunch of "scientists" buying and selling to themselves, left hand trading to the right. The trading volume looked impressive on paper, making it seem like the market had returned, but behind the scenes, it was all bots trading against each other, while real players had already exited the group.

Finally, there was the "celebrity cash grab" frenzy.

Most first- and second-tier celebrities launched a series because their agents told them it was a "new printing press." Without real consensus or community behind them, these projects disappeared faster than trends on TikTok.

So, what are the lessons here?

Just like the eras of ICO and DeFi summer, the NFT bubble burst. But the behavior patterns left behind in this era are permanent; they lasted long enough to permanently change the industry.

Crypto is no longer just a digital bank; it has become the cultural layer of the internet. We no longer ask, "Why own a JPEG?" but begin to understand what this series of behaviors signifies.

For example:

• Brands are shifting towards "digital passports" and "community as a service" (CaaS).

• In this AI-saturated era, provenance has become the standard for digital authenticity.

• Community-first release models have now become the go-to manual for every new consumer startup.

**The habit of collaboration has persisted, and we have learned to *belong* to digital culture, and we will never regress to the era of merely being "users."**

Want to hone your "investment vision"? What can you do?

By now, you have read one-third of this article. I have provided three detailed case studies to illustrate how to distinguish between false consensus upgrades ("dead cat bounces") and genuine upgrades.

It is no exaggeration to say that I could write hundreds of pages analyzing cases of Meme coins and prediction markets, but teaching someone to fish is better than just giving them fish, so I have left this part of the analysis for you to review and experience yourself.

Also, failed narratives and failed "consensus upgrades" are worth studying as well, such as Metaverse 1.0 from 2021-2022 and SocialFi 1.0 from 2023-2024. Although they only left behind the remnants of a "wave," and did not immediately reshape behavior habits, this does not mean their end. True "consensus upgrades" are rarely achieved in one go. Just as Mastercoin in 2013 opened the door to ICOs but remained dormant for years until it truly exploded in 2017 and massively changed industry behavior. Early failures are stepping stones to understanding.

Don't ignore things just because they have "cooled off." The next "consensus upgrade" may be something entirely new, but it could also be a revival of something that once failed in a "new form." When such a thing happens, this understanding will be your great opportunity.

The best way to hone your "investment vision" is to personally put in the effort to research, analyze, and verify.

Ask yourself if you understand what the public is doing. If you cannot observe the behavior changes within it, then you will not be able to detect the changes in trends.

Before concluding the first part, I have prepared a basic checklist that can be used to identify whether the next consensus upgrade is approaching. I call it the "Five Questions for Retail Investor Self-Protection":

1. Are there "outsiders" entering?

A group of participants whose main purpose is not to make money has emerged; the people you see are no longer just here to speculate on coins. They are creators, builders, or those seeking identity. If the room is filled only with traders, then that room is essentially empty.

• (If you are a trader reading this—well, I am a trader too. You and I both understand that to keep this game going, relying solely on our PVP is not enough.)*

2. Can it pass the "incentive decay" test?

Observe what happens when rewards dry up or prices stagnate. If people stay, it indicates a habit has formed. If they disappear the moment the "free lunch" stops, then you are facing nothing but a bunch of air with price tags.

3. Are they choosing "daily habits" over "positions"?

Novices only look at candlestick charts, while experts observe what people do daily. If they have built daily habits around this system, then this is a permanent upgrade.

4. Is there a phenomenon of "behavior > experience"?

Real change occurs when tools are still primitive, decentralized, and inefficient. If people are willing to endure a poor user interface to participate, then that behavior is "valid." By the time applications become smooth and refined, it will be too late for you.

5. (The most important point!!) Is there "passion-driven motivation"?

This is crucial. When people start to defend a system because it forms part of their identity, rather than just because they might lose money, the transformation is complete.

So, if you only focus on the price, the endless fantasy of yourself making a big move at a certain price is likely the reason you always "sell the big trend," "can't hold on," "constantly lose your composure," and "can't sleep with a position." The huge bullish candles appear because the behavior patterns have already changed months ago.

Price is the result of this transformation; price is merely a lagging indicator that finally acknowledges the world has moved forward.

II. If you're not good, practice more; if wealth can't 1000x, then first 10x your understanding

I know what you're thinking now.

"Okay, I understand the underlying logic, behavior changes, collaborative upgrades, etc. Theoretically, I know what to look for, but when the next consensus upgrade really happens, chaos and opportunity coexist… So, what exactly can rise 1000 times? More importantly, how can I discover these things early to buy in heavily?"

To be honest, this is the real world, not a feel-good story; just this question is worth its weight in gold.

If someone can confidently look you in the eye and give you a "5-step wealth code" they got from who-knows-where, then they either want you to carry them to the top or want you to pay thousands in "intelligence tax" to buy their "secret class."

Why do I say this? Because every new cycle is a brand new coordination game.

You cannot take the script from the DeFi summer of 2020 and expect to use that playbook to pick which Meme coins will explode in 2024/2025. Even if you are the top Meme hunter today, you cannot guarantee that your playbook will allow you to dominate the prediction market in 2026.

"Path dependence" has harmed many people.

(However, nothing is absolute; if your last name is Trump, then… you are right, after all, you are someone who can draw candlestick charts. Congratulations on being the best in both fields 😅)

No one can predict the future, but at the very least, we can lay a solid foundation and build a basic framework that allows you to analyze and learn ten times faster than others when real opportunities arise.

Having your own framework does not guarantee you will earn more than in the last cycle, but it can give you a significant first-mover advantage over those who are just here to gamble.

The framework consists of three parts: the underlying logic of crypto cycles + the knowledge structure of crypto + the value anchoring system.

The first part has been covered; now let’s discuss the second part, which is "What exactly should I learn, and what are the learning methods?"

But a thousand people have a thousand Hamlets; there is no such thing as "absolute correctness."

So below, I have provided two personal suggestions.

Suggestion 1: Become an On-Chain Detective

Here is a must-have basic skills checklist; all content can be 100% learned for free online, without any paid courses or "master" guidance. The only thing you need to invest is your determination and time:

First, you need to increase your probability of identifying "organized sniper events," or you will never escape the fate of being a bag holder. Learn to proficiently check wallet histories, holding distributions, bundled trades, and the flow of funds, and be able to sniff out any suspicious on-chain tricks.

Second, understand market mechanisms as much as possible to judge potential supply shocks and avoid violent liquidations. You need to know where to check and understand: order book depth, spreads, net inflow/outflow of exchanges, token unlock schedules, Mcap/TVL ratios, open interest, funding rates, macro capital flows, etc.

Third, if you don’t want to be devoured in the "dark forest," you at least need to know how MEV works; otherwise, you might not even realize when you are "sandwiched" (my painful lesson 😢).

If you want to learn deeper and run faster than those around you, you also need to maximize your ability to identify fake trades/wash trading/arbitrage, and "low circulation/high FDV" traps. If you are chasing airdrops, understand what the anti-witch mechanism is.

Another important point is that you should automate some information flow-related tasks, such as various data anomaly alerts, news filtering, narrative filtering, noise reduction, etc. With vibe coding now available, the basic threshold for all this has been lowered; anyone can learn it.

As of 2026, almost everyone I know (including those without any CS background) is creating tools to filter out junk information and find opportunities. If you are still relying on "manually finding information," this may be the reason you are always a step behind.

If you do not invest determination, time, and effort to lay this foundation, you are choosing "hard mode." On a smaller scale, it means you will always be a step behind others or miss many opportunities; on a larger scale, it means being scammed, being rolled, being drained, until you finally break down and start learning (or directly resign and exit the circle).

I know this because I have walked this path myself, stepping on various landmines, such as being scammed by strangers and "friends," falling for various Ponzi schemes, bizarre insider tricks, backdoor contracts, hot wallet thefts, OTC trading scams, and even being killed by social engineering. Sigh, that doesn’t even count the three times I was liquidated.

In addition to these "technical" aspects, I have also compiled some pitfall prevention tips that you can directly use on a "social level."

Let’s start with the simple ones: Has the project's official account changed its name more than ten times? Is its previous alias related to any scam projects? There are many tools to check account name change histories; use them.

Before investing, check if the team exists, and whether the founders and core members have X, LinkedIn, or GitHub accounts?

If they claim to have worked for well-known companies or graduated from prestigious schools, you need to verify this. After all, forged Stanford or Berkeley degrees, as well as fake resumes from former Meta, Google, or Morgan Stanley employees, are more common than people think.

The same goes for claims of "backed by certain VCs," "incubated by…," or "collaborating with…"; some "well-known investors" may have never "actually invested." Some "partners" are merely indirect advisors but allow the project to use their logo. This happens far more frequently than you expect, and I have been a victim of it myself.

In today's AI-saturated world, fake interactions are becoming more frequent and increasingly difficult to discern. Can you spot when the ratio of followers to engagement is abnormal? Can you identify bot replies or AI-generated chatter on Discord, Telegram, and X?

If you previously couldn't do the above, at least you now know where to start practicing.

Suggestion 2: Retreat into the World and Build Good Relationships

In short, you need to meet more people. Just like in the "financial circle," "tech circle," or "any circle," connections are your greatest asset.

I could write something like "50 things to look for in investment research projects," but ultimately, that would just be a pile of worthless nonsense. Why do I say this?

Because the real "core information" or alpha, when it still has first-hand information advantages, will never be publicly shared.

By the time a project starts being heavily promoted by reputable voices in your information stream, you might still make money, but that is no longer the "1000x life-changing" opportunity you came to the crypto world for; that "best entry" window has long been welded shut.

This is why, in every cycle, most newcomers who come with high hopes to strike gold end up becoming liquidity and then exit the circle. Because the information they receive is "lagged and re-lagged" after being filtered through layers of private circles.

So, if you do not have a reliable "insider line" (or multiple lines), then position management is your only safety net, so you must allocate most of your crypto assets to long-term targets.

Long-term targets do not require as high a threshold for information asymmetry, nor do they carry the crushing time pressure of short-term trading, allowing you breathing room to study publicly available data. You do not need to be the first to discover patterns; as long as a project can survive even 1.5 cycles, you are likely to profit multiple times, regardless of when you enter.

Meanwhile, your long-term goal should be to stop being a bystander and start becoming a participant. To do this, you need to have chips; apart from your family, this world is allied by interests. The people you admire will not exchange first-hand information with someone who cannot provide equivalent value.

You need to become "someone valuable" or possess "something valuable" to exchange, whether it is expertise, field research, capital, or connections. No one knows everything; that is why you can seize such opportunities.

The best way is to genuinely and passionately immerse yourself in an ecosystem: first, find a job in a project you believe in, whether you are a developer, operator, or business developer; "entry-level roles are easier to talk to." Working is the fastest way to build a reputation and meet your target audience.

Of course, merely having an entry-level web3 job will not immediately give you everything you want, but it is a great start.

"But what if I lack experience and can't find a reliable crypto job?"

The good news is: As of 2026, the crypto industry is still not a "career desert" like traditional finance or tech giants; you do not need an elite degree and two stacks of elite internship experiences, nor do you need to pass through five gates and six passes to get a job.

In this industry, your on-chain experience is your resume. If you have invested a lot of time experimenting, "going all in," and doing real things, you actually have more relevant experience than most "corporate people" who have transitioned.

What if you don't want to work? Then you have two other options (which still require tremendous effort) :

• If you are super smart and lucky enough to achieve impressive results on-chain, and you are not ready to retire yet, you can "bind" that wallet address to your Twitter account; you won’t even need to actively socialize; "like-minded" people will come to you.

• Build a personal brand on X, but the hardships and nuances of this process are known only to you; this is not a universal suggestion.

There are no free lunches in this world, nor are there reliable shortcuts. 100% effort does not guarantee 100% success, but 100% lack of effort will definitely lead to 100% failure (unless your name is Barron Trump).

III. How to Achieve Perseverance is Victory

Based on personal experience, those who can avoid "naked swimming" during trough cycles share the following two traits:

1. They have a strong belief independent of price.

2. They have established a multi-dimensional value anchoring system.

First, we must clarify that conviction does not equal blind obsession or blind faith due to what "some big shot" said.

It is not "no matter what happens in the future, I will never sell."

True conviction is structural. And structure itself contains flexibility. You can have immense conviction while also taking profits in batches or adjusting position ratios.

The key difference is whether you can consistently return to the table.

You do not leave just because the music stops. The reason you first appeared here was never about those red and green candlesticks; you stayed because of that underlying "why."

Those who can stand firm through cycles never ask: "Hey big shots, is it going up or down today?"

They ask: "Even if the price deviates from my viewpoint for the next few years, does the underlying logic of this matter still hold?"

This difference in thinking leads to vastly different outcomes.

The "quick money" mindset not only empties your wallet.

It will also erode your conviction and destroy your belief system.

Rebuilding faith is far more difficult than rebuilding capital.

So, what exactly is their "multi-dimensional value system"? How can you build your own?

First Layer: Concept Anchoring (Concept)

Stop only focusing on the candlesticks; start paying attention to core principles. Ask yourself: What makes this worth holding, even if its price has dropped below the screen?

Think back to the last ten tokens you traded. Now, fast forward two years. Ask yourself: How many of them will still "exist"? And how many will still be truly "important"?

If you cannot explain why a target is worth long-term capital investment without mentioning "community" or "going to the moon," then what you have is not conviction. What you have is just a position.

Second Layer: Time Dimension (Time)

The behavior logic of most people is chaotic; their decisions are easily manipulated by group sentiment, just like in the following example:

• Today, they follow the crowd to buy four different Meme coins in a certain secret Telegram channel, claiming they will definitely go to the moon.

• Tomorrow, they bet on certain projects on Polymarket because they saw a big shot shouting about a wealth code on Twitter.

• Suddenly, they disappear for a while.

• Then one day, they suddenly DM you, inquiring about a token that is about to be listed.

• But somehow, they suddenly bought a token from the privacy sector without even knowing what that sector is for.

• A few days later, they are in the group shouting "Bull market is back," "Bitcoin is ready to explode, let's go all in!" mindlessly going long on Bitcoin just because a news headline says "it will rise to $200,000 next month."

Hey, this is not a strategy; this is completely handing your money over to others, throwing the Holy Grail might even yield a higher success rate.

Of course, I have seen people make money this way, but I have never seen such people manage to keep that money two months later. What they leave behind is past glory and +99999% psychological trauma.

The real problem for these people is that they easily lose their own judgment due to noise interference, while also opening up multiple "battlefields" that exceed their capabilities and cognitive circles.

Short-term speculation, mid-term layout, and long-term investment each require completely different behavior patterns. Those who can cross cycles clearly know which position belongs to which time dimension, and they never let emotions cross dimensions.

They do not deny long-term beliefs because of short-term price noise, nor do they use long-term narratives to excuse their impulsive short-term operations.

If you are trying to shift from day trading to swing trading, here are some common "self-destructive" mistakes:

1. You tell yourself you are now a "long-term investor," but 80% of your time is still spent chasing one-off news headlines.

2. You see a trivial 3% pullback that should be within your risk tolerance, and you still panic.

3. Worst of all, you are still using a "quick money mindset" to allocate positions and assess risks, leading you to repeatedly miss the big trend.

Anchoring from the time dimension means forcing yourself to answer an extremely uncomfortable question before clicking "buy": "How long am I willing to admit I was 'wrong'?"

Third Layer: Behavioral Aspect (Behavior)

You cannot only say you have "faith" when things are going well; when your account is bleeding red, and the voices in your head are screaming for you to "do something," that is the real test.

You need to establish a self-questioning framework to predict yourself, rather than predicting the market.

Before entering each trade, you need to go through the following checklist to ensure that your future self will not trip your present self:

• When the price drops by x%, do I have a plan? Am I clear whether I will hold, reduce my position, or exit?

• Am I a "butt-driven" person? During pullbacks, am I objectively reassessing my investment logic, or subconsciously gathering information just to find reasons for panic selling?

• Am I frequently changing my target levels? When the price rises by x%, do I become greedy and keep pushing my profit-taking target higher just because "it feels right"?

• Can I explain the reason for "holding" without using the term "hype"? Apart from looking at sentiment and hype, can I clearly articulate the reasons behind holding?

• Is this "conviction" or "sunk cost"? When a position stagnates beyond expectations, am I holding it because the investment logic still holds, or because I am unwilling to admit I was wrong?

• How long is my "error acknowledgment time" after violating rules? When I violate one of my trading rules, do I immediately notice and take action, or do I only react when my account has lost a lot?

• Am I prone to "revenge trading"? After a loss, do I immediately feel the urge to jump into another trade just to "get back what I just lost"?

The purpose of these questions is not to guess how the candlesticks will move but to outline whether your future self will betray your present self when you are under immense psychological pressure.

The so-called "behavioral anchors" are essentially a pre-processing of pressure. Setting actions while calm is to prevent you from acting recklessly in despair.

After all, if you haven't figured out how to "play" trading, then ultimately, trading will start to "play" you.

Fourth Layer: Belief Dimension (Belief)

Have you noticed that the people who "disappear" the fastest are often the loudest during a bull market:

"Now is the last chance to buy XX!"

"You won't see Bitcoin below $100,000 after this!"

"Trust me, let's go all in, if you don't buy XX, you're going against the future!"

As prices reverse, these people vanish one by one, as if their "faith" never existed.

This "get-rich-quick" mentality not only destroys your investment portfolio through frequent trading but also erodes your belief system. And a shattered belief system is far more difficult to rebuild than a bank account.

"Quick money always leads to sad overreactions. It is human nature, just like animals in Africa feeding on carcasses."

------ Charlie Munger

Sadly, most people will exhaust their capital at the peak of the celebration, and when the real opportunity (the true bear market) finally arrives, they will have no "bullets" left.

What a huge joke: The mindset that brings people into the crypto world, the desire for overnight wealth, is precisely what kills their chances of acquiring wealth.

Most people do not even realize what they have lost until years later when Bitcoin rises exponentially again, and they slap their thighs asking: "Why couldn't I endure that little setback back then? If I had known, I would have held on."

This is why belief is the most important layer: it is a creed that takes years to form.

How do you test whether your belief is strong enough?

Try this: If someone were to fiercely challenge your position right now, could you calmly defend it? Can you face sharp questions without avoiding them?

Your belief should be extremely subjective and unique.

For some, it is the Cypherpunk spirit: a complete rebellion against regulation and centralized control. For them, crypto is not just an investment; it is the dawn of exiting a broken system.

For others, it is another iteration in the history of currency: they see the cyclical devaluation of fiat and financial plunder, recognizing that crypto is the only hedge against traditional systems that collapse in similar ways every century.

For some believers, it is sovereignty, neutrality, or the right to exist.

You must find your own "why," rather than merely renting someone else's ideology. I cannot tell you what your unique belief should be, but I can share mine.

Last year, when I only had 2,000 followers and no one cared what I said, I wrote a post answering a simple question:

Why, after experiencing all these collapses and zeroes, do I still buy Bitcoin?

I called it: "The Fourth Covenant Between God and Humanity."

The first three covenants in human history all have a fatal flaw: they were never meant for everyone.

The first was the "Old Covenant."

It was bound by bloodlines, and belonging was determined before you were born. If you did not belong to the chosen bloodline, you were never qualified.

The second was the "New Covenant."

It spoke of love and redemption for all, but history reveals the truth that words attempt to conceal: if you were a poor Asian farmer in the 17th century, you would never have the chance to step into a cathedral; the empire would block you at the door, with race, power, and hierarchy determining who was worthy of redemption.

The third was the "Declaration of Independence."

This marked the birth of the modern world, promising freedom, equality, and opportunity, but only if you were born on the right land, held the right passport, and were within the right system.

Of course, in a sense, "freedom of migration" exists, but for most people, the cost is too high, and the probability is slim; these rules seem never to have been written for ordinary people. Most people have never even reached the starting line; they must spend their lives proving they "deserve" it, using money, education, obedience, or luck, layer by layer begging the system to let them "belong."

And now, the fourth covenant has emerged: Bitcoin.

This is the first system in human history that does not ask who you are.

It does not care about your race. It does not care about your nationality. It does not care what language you speak, nor where you were born.

There are no priests, no political systems, no borders, and no permissions needed; only you and a private key.

You do not need to be chosen, you do not need connections, you do not need approval, and you do not need to prove yourself to Bitcoin. You either understand it, or you do not.

This system does not promise you comfort, safety, or guaranteed success; it only offers one thing that humanity has never truly owned: the same rules for everyone at the same time, with the same access rights.

For me, this is not an investment argument, nor is it a trade or a gamble. This belief is the only reason I can sit calmly through market fluctuations, endure years of silence, questioning, ridicule, and despair, and still hold on.

If you have patiently read this far…

Then congratulations, you have obtained the blueprint of a "survivor."

You have learned how to identify "consensus upgrades," how to use that "investigator toolkit" to increase your chances of early entry, and you know what elements are needed to build faith and maintain composure.

However, I must honestly tell you: The way of nature is to follow the path. No matter how advanced your tools are, if you cannot control the person using the tools, it will always be brute force.

Everything I have shared comes from the countless mistakes, lessons, and deep scars I have experienced over my 13 years in the market. These fragmented reflections I have written also stem from late-night conversations with friends who have similarly survived the battlefield.

Looking through my messy notes, I realize that the material I have at hand could easily fill a book, with each chapter delving into crypto from different angles.

However, these lessons cannot make you a master overnight, just as a "quick money mindset" cannot truly make you wealthy.

I have witnessed the downfall of those "geniuses" in every cycle… Losing money is not because they are not smart or made a wrong move, but because they all have a "mindset that only seeks quick money," while holding a proud but "fragile" ego. Meanwhile, those who are still profiting in 2026, and those who have preserved their gains and exited unscathed, share one understanding: the tokens themselves have never been the focus.

The focus is on the sovereign system we are building and the personal discipline required to belong to it.

Crypto is the most brutal and honest teacher on this planet: it will bring out the demons within you and find your weakest traits—whether it is greed, impatience, or laziness. Then it will charge you a hefty "tuition fee" for it. As for mine, I think I have paid in full, haha. My only hope is that this article can save you from paying as much as I did.

If you truly read this from start to finish (and did not let AI summarize it for you), then I genuinely believe you have the potential to become one of the survivors who have conquered multiple cycles. You are the kind of person who can truly master the skill checklist I provided in the second part.

I sincerely hope you can become one of my new "old friends," growing together as comrades in the next cycle, the cycle after that, and countless future cycles, witnessing Bitcoin completely change the world.

And to my long-time readers: Thank you; it is your kindness and support that have prompted me to reflect on my past and share these experiences.

The crypto world may often be frustrating, but it is still worth loving and worth building for.

So, I will take my leave first, and I will see you at the next "consensus upgrade."