Glassnode: Bitcoin is entering a more stable phase, with leverage risk significantly reduced

The institutional research department of Coinbase, in collaboration with on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, pointed out in their latest report "Charting Crypto: Q1 2026" that Bitcoin is exhibiting more stable and resilient market characteristics.

The report suggests that the pullback in Q4 2025 has largely cleared excess leverage from the market, reducing Bitcoin's sensitivity to cascading liquidations and enhancing its ability to withstand macro-level shocks. It states that the current market situation is not a return to a high-leverage speculative cycle, but rather is gradually displaying characteristics of a "macro-sensitive asset," with its price being more influenced by global liquidity, institutional positioning, and portfolio rebalancing behaviors. Unlike previous cycles dominated by retail momentum and high-leverage trading, the current market structure is more restrained, with institutional investors leaning towards defensive allocations.

Researchers noted that the crypto market is overall healthier as it enters 2026, with a relatively robust macro environment and monetary policy expectations leaning towards support. The report also mentioned that Coinbase's self-built global M2 money supply index has historically led Bitcoin prices by about 110 days, and this indicator remains positively correlated in the current quarter, suggesting short-term support for Bitcoin. However, the subsequent growth rate of liquidity may slow down. Additionally, the report shows that Bitcoin options open interest has surpassed perpetual contracts, with investors more inclined to purchase downside protection rather than continue to leverage directional bets, reflecting a cautious market risk appetite.