Viewpoint: The selling pressure from HYPE is nearing exhaustion, and the market outlook is optimistic

Cryptanalysis expert Ericonomic published an analysis on the recent significant price drop of HYPE. He stated that the decline from the $45-50 range to around $20 was not coincidental, but rather caused by three very specific sources of selling pressure. However, these pressures have either been resolved or are nearing exhaustion.

Most trackers still show that approximately 9.9 million HYPE tokens are released monthly, leading many users to believe there is a selling pressure of about $200 million each month, which is a mistaken assumption. Unlocking does not mean distribution, distribution does not equate to sales, and sales do not necessarily refer to selling on the public market. On-chain data shows that only 7-10% of the initially unlocked HYPE tokens were used for market selling, with the remainder flowing into OTC trading and staking.

As HYPE enters the fourth quarter of 2025, the derivatives structure is not healthy, with long positions dominating. With the continuous liquidation, most aggressive long positions have disappeared, and there are still over $150 million in long positions with liquidation prices below $15, but the downward pressure on prices from leverage has basically dissipated.

The initial cluster of 16 addresses that participated in HYPE financing through Tornado Cash accumulated about 4.4 million HYPE at an average price of around $8.8 per token, equivalent to a supply of $80 million. Starting in early January this year, this entity adopted a highly mechanized liquidation strategy: unlocking about one wallet per day. If fully sold, it would push the HYPE price below $10, but this has not actually occurred.

When the Tornado cluster aggressively sold on-chain, the market maker Wintermute immediately began arbitraging. Wintermute sold the HYPE selling pressure it absorbed to multiple large off-chain buyers. In the past 30 days, Wintermute has arbitraged over $70 million in HYPE, with on-chain data showing buyers including Resolv Labs, Auros Global, and others.

Ericonomic's analysis has sparked widespread discussion in the crypto community, boosting market optimism for HYPE's future prospects. According to market data, HYPE has risen above $25.7, with a 24-hour increase of 16.2%.