Benchmark: If the market structure bill is not passed, the U.S. crypto market will fall into "structural constraints."

According to CoinDesk, Wall Street brokerage firm Benchmark stated that if the U.S. Congress fails to pass cryptocurrency market structure legislation this year, the U.S. crypto market will not revert to the heavily regulated enforcement environment of 2022-2023. However, at a critical moment when global adoption and institutional interest are accelerating, the market structure will still face ongoing constraints.

Analyst Mark Palmer wrote in a report on Monday, "The absence of legislation will lead to a persistent structural risk premium across most areas of the digital asset ecosystem." He added that this will limit the valuation expansion space for platforms primarily targeting the U.S. market. Palmer pointed out that the failure of legislation will delay rather than block the maturation process of cryptocurrencies, preventing the U.S. market from fully realizing its potential. In this scenario, investors will prefer exposure to Bitcoin-centric assets, strong balance sheets, and stable cash flow infrastructure, rather than regulatory-sensitive trading platforms, decentralized finance (DeFi), and altcoins.

This legislation aims to establish a regulatory framework for the U.S. cryptocurrency market by clarifying how digital assets should be classified as commodities or securities and delineating the regulatory responsibilities of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Although the bill passed by the House last year shifted the focus of discussions to details such as stablecoin yields and DeFi interfaces, negotiations in the Senate have progressed more slowly and with greater divisions, raising the risk that final approval may be delayed until next year. Palmer believes the market has begun to price in such timing risks.

If the market structure bill fails to pass, trading platforms will continue to face uncertainties regarding listings, higher compliance costs, and limitations on the expansion of high-margin products, while the monetization process for stablecoins may also be delayed due to unclear yield and distribution rules. The report noted that given Bitcoin's established status as a commodity, Bitcoin and Bitcoin-focused asset management firms will be relatively unaffected, and the regulatory risk exposure for mining companies and energy-supported infrastructure is also lower. DeFi and smart contract platforms remain the most vulnerable, as regulatory ambiguity continues to constrain participation in the U.S. market; meanwhile, custodial and compliance service providers are in a relatively defensive position.

Despite the delays in the legislative process, Palmer still believes that the likelihood of the cryptocurrency market structure bill being passed is high—even if it is a diluted version. He emphasized that any form of legislation would help reduce regulatory risks and promote broader institutional participation.