The probability of BlackRock executives succeeding the Federal Reserve Chair on Polymarket is close to 50%, while the probability of former board member Kevin Warsh has dropped to 28%

According to Polymarket data, regarding the successor to the Federal Reserve, the implied probability for BlackRock's Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income, Rieder, is 47%, higher than former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh's 28%, current Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's 9%, and White House National Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett's 8%.

The total trading volume for this event exceeds $250 million, and the chart shows that Rieder's pricing curve accelerated upward in January, surpassing competitor Kevin Warsh on January 23.