Matrixport Research: Tariff Turmoil Disturbs the Market, Bitcoin Becomes the "First Response Asset" to Macro Volatility

This round of market volatility is not due to a structural deterioration in the fundamentals of crypto assets, but rather resembles a phase of repricing under external macro disturbances. Trump's latest round of tariff threats should be viewed not as traditional trade policy, but as a strategic means to create market volatility and strengthen negotiation leverage. The market has gradually adapted to this rhythm: news shocks first trigger price repricing, and when liquidity tightens, sell-offs are amplified; once negotiation signals are released, prices often stabilize quickly, and trading returns to a relatively orderly state.

In this process, the correlation between Bitcoin and global liquidity has continued to strengthen, gradually playing the role of a high-beta proxy for global liquidity, rather than a traditional macro hedging tool. The current price pullback is more of an adjustment at the trading level rather than a trend reversal.

Tariff Strategy Reshapes Volatility Rhythm: Bitcoin Becomes a Preemptive Reaction Asset to Macro Shocks

Trump's trade strategy in his second term has evolved into a clear "two-step escalation" mechanism: first announcing initial tariff arrangements, then setting higher subsequent rates. This design creates immediate liquidity shocks while providing the market with clear time anchors. Relevant statements often bypass traditional diplomatic channels and are concentrated on weekends, allowing Bitcoin to first absorb macro shocks during traditional market closures, becoming a risk pricing vehicle with ample liquidity.

From the market's reaction, Bitcoin's volatility during weekends is often relatively restrained, while selling pressure significantly deepens after U.S. stock futures resume trading. This indicates that the current price adjustment is not primarily driven by retail sentiment, but more from traditional financial participants rebalancing their cross-asset risk exposure after liquidity returns. As long as the market continues to respond to this "extreme pressure - tactical cooling" rhythm, Bitcoin will remain at the forefront of macro disturbances.

Volatility Does Not Equal Reversal: Repetitive Trading Windows in Tactical Pullbacks

Since 2025, the market narrative around Bitcoin has shown a clear shift—from "inflation hedge asset" to a high-beta indicator highly sensitive to changes in global liquidity. Tariff-related statements often trigger phase pullbacks of about 3% to 7%, which are not due to fundamental deterioration, but rather the result of institutional trading desks actively deleveraging and reducing risk exposure against the backdrop of a strengthening dollar and rising stagflation expectations.

In this framework, tariffs are the means, while volatility is the goal. Such volatility instead constitutes repetitive trading windows: shock phases intensify negotiation pressure, and before events ease and risk appetite recovers, they often correspond to relatively favorable positioning ranges. Meanwhile, implied volatility has not significantly increased, indicating that the market does not view this as a structural risk escalation.

Overall, this round of Bitcoin pullback is more tactical rather than a trend reversal. As the market gradually sees through this negotiation rhythm and incorporates its impact into pricing, Bitcoin's weight as the primary pricing vehicle for relevant statements may marginally decline. In the context of overall resilience in risk assets, the necessity for continued concern is limited. For investors, rather than overinterpreting short-term headlines, it is better to focus on changes in pricing and liquidity structure—within a disciplined framework, the value of buying on dips remains higher than concerns about a "structural reversal."

The above views are derived from Matrix on Target. Contact us for the complete report on Matrix on Target.

Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.