ARK: Bitcoin, DeFi, and tokenized assets will dominate the next phase of crypto, with the digital asset scale potentially reaching $28 trillion by 2030

ARK Invest, in its latest report "Big Ideas 2026," points out that Bitcoin, DeFi, and the tokenization of real-world assets are transitioning from a "crypto narrative" to a functional component of global capital markets, which will dominate the industry's development direction after 2026.

The report predicts that by 2030, the overall size of digital assets could grow to $28 trillion, with Bitcoin accounting for about 70% (approximately $16 trillion). The main drivers are the continuous influx of funds into ETFs and companies incorporating Bitcoin into their balance sheets. Currently, U.S. ETFs and publicly listed companies hold about 12% of the total Bitcoin supply, a significant increase from early 2025. ARK also notes that the value of DeFi is shifting from the underlying networks to the application layer. In 2025, DeFi applications are expected to generate approximately $3.8 billion in revenue, with some ultra-lightweight protocols nearing or even matching the efficiency of traditional fintech companies in terms of human resources and asset management. Regarding tokenization, ARK estimates that the scale of real-world asset (RWA) tokenization could reach $11 trillion by 2030. By 2025, the scale of related assets has already grown to about $19 billion, benefiting from the on-chain advancement of assets like U.S. Treasuries and gold. Several interviewees emphasized that regulatory clarity will be a decisive variable. Analysts believe that although technology and business models are rapidly maturing, the implementation of custody, compliance, and investor protection rules will determine whether Bitcoin, DeFi, and tokenized assets can truly achieve large-scale mainstream adoption.