Matrixport Market Observation: Structural Support and Layout Opportunities Amid Increased Volatility in the Crypto Market

Recent trends in the cryptocurrency market have shown a typical pattern of rising and then falling, raising investors' concerns about the sustainability of the market. Bitcoin once surged strongly from around $89,000, approaching the six-month high of $97,000, but failed to effectively hold the resistance zone; subsequently, the market quickly retraced on the morning of January 19, falling below the $92,000 support. This movement seems to constitute a "false breakout," but it is noteworthy that the pullback did not trigger large-scale profit-taking on-chain— the 7-day average realized profit was about $184 million, significantly narrowing from over $1 billion daily in the fourth quarter of last year, reflecting that while market sentiment has turned cautious, there has not been systemic selling pressure, and the overall structure remains stable.

Macroeconomic Landscape: From "Interest Rate as the Sole Driver" to "Interest Rate + Geopolitical Factors"

The current market influences are becoming more complex. On the macro level, in addition to the "interest rate path," new factors such as "geopolitical noise and tariffs" have emerged. Recent comments by former President Trump regarding the ownership of Greenland and tariffs on Europe have raised global risk premiums, making it easier to trigger synchronized volatility in risk assets in the short term. Meanwhile, against the backdrop of a 2.7% year-on-year CPI in December, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain interest rates in the January meeting, but the market is still speculating on the possibility of a rate cut in March. Overall, the macro environment has shifted from "solely focusing on interest rates" to "driven by both interest rates and geopolitical factors," with the baseline scenario still being "high rates continuing, with flexible expectations for rate cuts," which impacts the cryptocurrency market more in terms of increased volatility rather than directly initiating a unilateral easing trend.

Capital and Holdings: Incremental Capital Waiting to Enter, Supply Structure Continues to Improve

The capital side shows positive signals. Bitcoin spot ETFs continue to see significant net inflows, and stablecoins are showing a trend of issuance, injecting potential liquidity into the market. Meanwhile, the balance of Bitcoin on exchanges remains low, with addresses holding 10 to 1,000 BTC showing a net increase, indicating that holdings are gradually concentrating among long-term holders. For Ethereum, the staking rate is approaching 30%, and circulating supply is further contracting, creating mid-term intrinsic support. These factors collectively form a pattern of "reduced sellable chips + incremental capital waiting," allowing the market to exhibit strong support during the pullback.

Technical Structure: Intense Contest for Key Levels, Awaiting Directional Choice Amidst Fluctuations

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin needs to pay attention to $92,000 as a short-term dividing line between bulls and bears. If the daily close fails to reclaim this level, the next support levels to watch are $90,000 and the $88,000-$89,000 area— the latter corresponds to a previous cost-intensive zone and value center, where strong buying support is expected. On the upside, it first faces resistance at $95,000 (which has turned into resistance), with stronger resistance located in the $98,000-$102,000 liquidity-rich zone, while the psychological and technical pressure point of $100,000 remains significant, with the breakthrough process likely accompanied by multiple fluctuations.

Ethereum is still oscillating in the $3,100-$3,300 range, with $3,250-$3,350 being the key resistance area; an effective breakout here could open up upward space. On the downside, it needs to hold above $3,100; if it falls below, it may revisit the $2,850-$2,900 structural support area.

Strategic Outlook: Maintain Flexibility, Capture Structural Opportunities Amidst Volatility

In summary, the short-term volatility in the cryptocurrency market is amplified by macro uncertainties and technical resistance, but the mid-term logic remains intact: continuous capital inflow, improving supply structure, and sustained confidence among long-term holders all support the market's resilience during pullbacks. Investors should maintain strategic flexibility at this stage:

• Neutral oscillation: FCN/dual-currency wealth management products, selling volatility to obtain stable coupon income.
• Bullish on dips: Discounted Accumulator, gradually increasing positions on dips, setting knockout prices to control chasing risk.
• Bearish or hedging reduction: Decumulator/call options, gradually reducing holdings in a premium environment.
• Need liquidity without wanting to chase margin: Non-margin financing, obtaining liquidity at low interest, avoiding margin risk.

The above content is from Daniel Yu, Head of Asset Management, and represents the author's personal views only.

Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.