Data: Options indicators suggest that Bitcoin still has downside risk, with a 30% probability of falling below $80,000 by the end of June

Jan 20, 2026 15:54:37

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According to CoinDesk, the options market shows a significant downward skew, with a 30% probability that Bitcoin will drop below $80,000 by June 26, while the probability of rising above $120,000 during the same period is 19%.

The report states that there is a high concentration of open contracts for put options with strike prices between $75,000 and $80,000 on the Derive and Deribit platforms, indicating that the market expects prices to fall to the mid-$70,000s.

Note: The options skew (a measure of the price difference between call and put options) remains negative, indicating that there is a downside risk in the short term.

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