Wintermute: A few large-cap coins have absorbed the majority of the new capital, and whether they can expand market participation in 2026 depends on the direction of liquidity

In the 2026 Outlook Report published by Wintermute, it is mentioned that the anticipated bullish market did not materialize in 2025, and the traditional four-year cycle is becoming outdated. A few large companies have absorbed the vast majority of new capital, leaving the entire market struggling.

To expand market participation in 2026, it depends on whether one of the following three scenarios can significantly increase liquidity, moving beyond just a few large-cap assets.

1. ETFs and DATs expand their investment scope, such as SOL and XRP ETFs.

2. A strong rise in Bitcoin or Ethereum could create a wealth effect, but it remains uncertain how much capital will ultimately flow back into the digital asset space.

3. Retail investors' attention may shift from stocks (AI, rare earths, quantum technology) to cryptocurrencies, leading to new inflows of capital and stablecoin issuance. (The least likely scenario)