Bitget UEX Daily Report | Trump’s tariff threat escalates; gold and silver prices hit new highs; US stock index futures generally decline (January 20, 2026)

# Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Powell makes rare appearance at Supreme Court hearing, supports Governor Cook's reappointment

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will attend a Supreme Court hearing on Wednesday to support the case regarding Trump's attempt to fire Governor Lisa Cook. - Key points: Last October, the court temporarily blocked Trump's firing action, and Cook denied allegations of mortgage fraud; Powell's presence highlights the independence of the Federal Reserve. - Market impact: This move may alleviate policy uncertainty, but if the court's ruling is unfavorable, it could exacerbate volatility in financial markets and affect investors' confidence in the Fed's stability.

International Commodities

Rising risk aversion drives gold and silver prices to new records

Trump's tariff threats have triggered global risk aversion, causing spot gold and silver prices to soar to historic highs. - Key points: Gold rose by 2% to $4,690 per ounce, and silver increased by over 5% to $94.7 per ounce; escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and Europe are the main driving force. - Market impact: Precious metals benefit as safe-haven assets, but if trade disputes ease, prices may correct, supporting overall resilience in the commodity market in the short term.

Macroeconomic Policy

Trump's push for Greenland sparks new trade friction between the U.S. and Europe

U.S. President Trump refused to disclose whether he would use force to seize Greenland and threatened to impose tariffs on opposing European countries, prompting an emergency EU summit. - Key points: The EU will hold a summit on the 22nd to assess countermeasures; Trump emphasized that tariffs will be fully implemented if no agreement is reached; meanwhile, Chinese Premier Li Qiang hosted a meeting to discuss the "14th Five-Year Plan." - Market impact: Increased trade uncertainty amplifies global economic risks, potentially suppressing growth expectations while also stimulating a shift towards safe-haven investments.

# Market Review

• Spot Gold: Slightly up, continuously hitting historic highs, supported by geopolitical tensions.
• Spot Silver: Slightly down, characterized by dominant risk aversion, with increased price volatility.
• WTI Crude Oil: Prices under pressure, driven by expectations of oversupply and weak demand.
• U.S. Dollar Index: Flat, driven by potential dovish signals from the Fed and trade uncertainties.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

U.S. stocks were closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, but U.S. stock futures showed a significant decline;

• Dow Jones: Futures down 0.83%, continuously pressured by escalating trade tensions.
• S&P 500: Futures down 0.88%, characterized by dominant risk aversion in the market.
• Nasdaq: Futures down 1.09%, driven by uncertainties in the tech sector, including AI investments.

# In-Depth Stock Analysis

1. Apple - iPhone shipments regain top position in the Chinese market

Event Overview: Market reports indicate that Apple, with its iPhone 17 series doubling storage capacity without price increases and innovations in the Pro series cameras, is leading the Chinese smartphone market with a 22% share in Q4 2025. Additionally, the iPhone 18 Pro plans to introduce 5G satellite communication, breaking emergency rescue limitations and achieving real-time voice data connections, potentially commercialized through a new operator model. Market Interpretation: Analysts believe this marks the entry of smartphones into the "integrated earth and sky" era, with firms like Goldman Sachs optimistic about its potential to disrupt the competitive landscape. Investment Insight: The satellite communication feature may enhance Apple's ecosystem stickiness; attention is recommended for benefiting supply chain stocks.

2. Micron - AI storage chip shortage warning extended

Event Overview: Micron warns that the unprecedented storage chip shortage driven by AI demand will persist until after 2026, with HBM capacity being squeezed by AI accelerators, already affecting mobile and PC shipments. The company is advancing a $100 billion DRAM wafer fab project in New York, with the first batch expected to be operational by 2030, and expanding facilities in Idaho and Virginia to ensure supply for clients like Nvidia. Market Interpretation: Institutions state that this shortage highlights bottlenecks in the AI supply chain, with Goldman Sachs expecting it to drive memory prices up. Investment Insight: Short-term capacity pressures may elevate stock price volatility, while long-term expansion plans are favorable for valuation recovery.

3. Google - Significant growth in Gemini business sales

Event Overview: Google’s Gemini AI model sales have surged, with API call volume doubling to 85 billion times over the past year, and enterprise subscription users reaching 8 million. This growth is expected to boost Google Cloud server revenue as customer AI spending extends to other products. Market Interpretation: Analysts emphasize that this reflects the acceleration of AI commercialization, with Goldman Sachs viewing it as a new growth engine for cloud business. Investment Insight: The subscription model stabilizes cash flow, making it worthy of medium to long-term allocation.

4. Microsoft - AI profit margin expansion viewed positively

Event Overview: Microsoft’s stock price has fallen 16% from its December peak, but Goldman Sachs analysts see this as a buying opportunity, expecting EPS to reach $35 in FY2030, with a compound growth rate exceeding 20%, benefiting from the flexibility of AI infrastructure and profit margin advantages. Market Interpretation: Institutions believe Microsoft stands out in the AI cycle, similar to its expansion path during the cloud era. Investment Insight: The current pullback provides an entry opportunity; attention should be paid to AI-related earnings reports.

# Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

UTC+8 Country/Region Data Name Market Attention Level

Important Event Forecast

• U.S. Supreme Court Opinion Day: 10:00 - Focus on the legality ruling of Trump's tariff policy, which may affect global trade patterns.
• 2026 Alibaba Cloud PolarDB Developer Conference: All day - Focus on the integration of cloud-native database technology and AI, paying attention to new dynamics in the developer ecosystem.
• EU Emergency Summit: 22nd - Discuss Trump’s tariff threats and countermeasures, assessing strategies to protect EU interests.
• Japanese Prime Minister Dissolves House of Representatives: 23rd - Announcement of early elections, focusing on the political impact of the Liberal Democratic Party and economic policy direction.

Bitget Research Institute View:

Supported by central bank purchases, geopolitical tensions, and Fed rate cuts, we remain optimistic about gold and silver performance, while maintaining a positive outlook on U.S. stocks, expecting S&P earnings growth to reach 13-15% in 2026. AI-driven investments may yield double-digit returns, but high valuations pose risks; we are bearish on oil due to supply waves and weak demand; a weaker dollar will further boost precious metals, and the overall market needs to be wary of escalating trade tensions amplifying volatility.

Disclaimer: The above content is organized by AI search, with human verification for publication, and is not intended as any investment advice.