Giant Whale Garrett Jin: The current Bitcoin market is fundamentally different from 2022, and it's too early to be bearish

Suspected "1011 Insider Whale" Garrett Jin posted on the X platform, stating that comparing the current Bitcoin market to that of 2022 is highly unprofessional. He believes that there are essential differences between the two from the perspectives of long-term price structure, macro background, investor composition, and chip distribution. He pointed out that the current macro environment is completely opposite to the high inflation and interest rate hike cycle of 2022: the situation in Ukraine is easing, CPI and risk-free interest rates are declining, and especially the AI technology revolution is likely to drive the economy into a long-term deflationary cycle. Interest rates have entered a phase of reduction, and central bank liquidity is returning to the financial system, which defines the risk appetite behavior of capital.

Since 2020, Bitcoin has shown a significant negative correlation with CPI, and under the AI-driven technological revolution, long-term deflation is a high-probability outcome. Technically, 2021-2022 was a weekly M-top structure, while 2025 is a breakout of the upward channel, which is more likely to be a "bear market trap" before a rebound. He noted that to replicate the bear market of 2022, it is necessary to simultaneously meet stringent conditions such as the re-emergence of inflation shocks, the central bank restarting interest rate hikes or quantitative tightening, and a decisive price drop below $80,850. It is too early to be bearish before these conditions are met.

In terms of investor structure, 2020-2022 was a high-leverage speculative market dominated by retail investors, while since the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in 2023, structural long-term holders have entered the market, effectively locking in supply and significantly reducing trading speed and volatility. Bitcoin has shifted from a historical volatility range of 80-150% to a range of 30-60%, becoming a distinctly different asset. The current market has entered a more mature institutional era, characterized by stable underlying demand, locked supply, and institutional-level volatility.