VanEck Q1 Market Outlook: Long-term Bullish on Cryptocurrency, Strong Demand for Gold Remains

Original Title: VanEck Q1 2026 Outlook: Risk On

Original Source: VanEck

Original Compilation: Felix, PANews

As we enter 2026, clearer fiscal and monetary signals support a more positive risk appetite, with more attractive investment opportunities emerging in areas such as artificial intelligence, private credit, gold, India, and cryptocurrencies.

Key Points:

· At the end of 2025, AI-related stocks experienced a significant pullback, resetting valuations and making investments in AI and related themes more attractive.

· Gold continues to re-emerge as a global monetary asset, with the pullback providing a better entry point.

· After a challenging 2025, Business Development Companies (BDCs) now offer more attractive yields and valuations.

· India remains a high-growth potential investment market, while cryptocurrencies are bullish in the long term, though short-term trend signals are complex.

As we move into 2026, the market finds itself in a rare environment: clarity. While selectivity remains crucial, this clarity around fiscal policy, monetary policy direction, and major investment themes supports a more aggressive risk appetite strategy.

Following a sharp pullback in some AI-related stocks at the end of last year, today's AI trades are more attractive than the "stifling" highs of October. Notably, this pullback occurred alongside strong potential demand for computing, tokens, and productivity enhancements.

Related themes, such as nuclear energy linked to AI-driven power demand, have also seen significant price adjustments. This adjustment improves the risk-return profile for investors with a medium to long-term outlook.

Reduced Surprises in Future Fiscal and Monetary Policy

One of the most important developments for the market is the gradual improvement in the U.S. fiscal situation. Although the deficit remains high, its proportion of GDP has decreased from the historical highs during the pandemic. This fiscal stability helps anchor long-term interest rates and reduces tail risks.

On the interest rate front, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the current interest rate levels as "normal," which is quite significant. The market should not expect aggressive or destabilizing short-term rate cuts in 2026. Instead, the outlook points to policy stability, moderate adjustments, and fewer shocks. This is also one of the reasons for the clearer market outlook.

Nuclear energy stocks experienced a pullback in the fourth quarter:

Source: Bloomberg Data as of December 31, 2025

Business Development Companies Back in Focus

Business Development Companies (BDCs) faced a tough year in 2025, but this adjustment has brought opportunities. With yields still attractive and credit concerns largely digested by the market, BDCs are now more appealing than they were a year ago.

The management companies behind them (such as Ares) are also in a similar position, with current valuations becoming more reasonable compared to their long-term profitability and past performance.

Gold as a Global Monetary Asset

Driven by central bank demand and the global economy increasingly moving away from dollar dominance, gold continues to re-emerge as a leading global currency. Although technically, gold prices may seem overextended, VanEck believes this pullback presents a good opportunity to accumulate. Its structural advantages remain intact.

Gold prices are above support levels, but demand remains strong:

Source: Bloomberg Data as of December 31, 2025

Investment Opportunities in India and Cryptocurrencies

Aside from the U.S. market, India remains a highly potential long-term investment market, thanks to its structural reforms and ongoing growth momentum.

In the cryptocurrency space, Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle was disrupted in 2025, complicating short-term signals. This divergence supports a more cautious short-term outlook for the next 3 to 6 months. However, this view is not universally held within VanEck, as Matthew Sigel and David Schassler maintain a more positive stance on the recent cycle.

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