Ark Invest: Bitcoin is entering a phase of institutionalization and low volatility, and it still expects Bitcoin to rise to at least $300,000 by 2030

According to CoinDesk, Ark Invest analyst and portfolio manager David Puell stated that the next phase of Bitcoin will no longer primarily depend on whether investors "believe" in the asset, but rather on how much exposure they are willing to allocate and through which investment tools they choose to participate.

With the launch of the 2024 spot Bitcoin ETF and the rapid development of digital asset treasury strategies, Bitcoin has crossed an important threshold, entering a phase of institutional maturity. The combined holdings of ETFs and digital asset treasuries have reached about 12% of the total Bitcoin supply, far exceeding expectations, and have become one of the main drivers of price movements in 2025, a trend that may continue into 2026.

As the amount of Bitcoin absorbed by ETFs and corporate treasuries exceeds expectations, the market is entering a more institutionalized phase with lower volatility. Ark Invest remains confident in its long-term valuation framework for Bitcoin. According to the valuation model published by Ark, its prediction for the price of Bitcoin in 2030 is "approximately $300,000 in a bear market scenario; approximately $710,000 in a baseline scenario; and approximately $1.5 million in a bull market scenario."

David Puell indicated that driven by the "digital gold" narrative and institutional adoption, the company still expects Bitcoin to reach between $300,000 and $1.5 million by 2030. As volatility decreases and drawdowns narrow, Bitcoin may become increasingly attractive to investors with a lower risk appetite in the next cycle.