Coin Market Observation Bureau ✖️0xTodd: Stablecoins are a severely underestimated killer application, regarding crypto research and AI judgment

BitMart "Market Observation Bureau" is a new Chinese in-depth interview program launched by BitMart, inviting the most discerning and influential builders, investors, and researchers in the Web3 industry to engage in discussions around financial innovation, technological evolution, and long-term trends, leaving behind judgments and experiences that are truly valuable references for the industry.

In the crypto industry, most discussions revolve around price fluctuations, narrative shifts, and the next opportunity. However, what truly determines whether a person can stay at the table long-term is often not a single doubling, but whether they still know what they are doing when the market provides no feedback.
This is also something that 0xTodd has repeatedly validated over the past eight years.

This episode of "Market Observation Bureau" features guest: 0xTodd, partner at Nothing Research and co-founder of Ethereum Staking pool EBunker.

Host: yuanyuan, BitMart Marketing VP.

Having transitioned from a materials chemistry background into the crypto industry in 2017, 0xTodd is both a long-term researcher and a builder continuously seeking "certainty" within the underlying structures. Compared to emotionally driven participation, he is more concerned with: which things are worth long-term bets.

1. Cross-Discipline: The "Moment of Arrival" from the Laboratory to Bitcoin

Todd's entry into the industry was not gradual but marked by a clear sign of the times.

In 2017, he was preparing to apply for overseas PhD programs. At the same time, the "EternalBlue" ransomware incident erupted globally, with hackers demanding ransom payments in Bitcoin. While most people focused on the cybersecurity risks themselves, he saw another signal—Bitcoin entered the mainstream narrative for the first time in a "real use" manner.

Having encountered Bitcoin as early as 2013, Todd was particularly sensitive to this. He later mentioned an experiential judgment:
Whenever mainstream media begins to seriously discuss what Bitcoin "can be used for," it often signifies that a major cycle is unfolding.

Thus, he halted his PhD application and turned to the crypto industry. In his view, this was not a speculative choice but a rational decision made after witnessing a new financial species entering the mainstream—also a shift from a stagnating traditional academic path to a rapidly evolving new field.

2. Taking a Stand Amidst the Noise: A Structural Judgment on Luna

After entering the industry, research and writing quickly became Todd's main labels.

From early research outputs on Zhihu to establishing formal research systems in family offices and exchange research institutes, and later founding Nothing Research, he has consistently focused on long-term research around core themes such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins. As his focus shifted to Twitter (X), his research began to be seen more widely and questioned more frequently.

In 2021, when Luna and UST were at the peak of market sentiment, he chose to take one of the least favorable positions—publicly questioning its underlying structure and defining it as a system highly reliant on confidence. For a time, this judgment brought him not applause but continuous attacks and ridicule.

The result was the collapse of UST in 2022. The funds managed by Todd achieved significant net value growth by shorting UST during extreme market conditions. Although he did not completely "successfully escape the top" during Defi Summer, this successful judgment also validated his repeated emphasis on "earning cognitive money."

"The thrill of proving one's understanding with real money is more satisfying than ordinary profit; it's a wild release of dopamine."

3. Research Methodology: I Welcome the World to "Debate"

Unlike many researchers, Todd does not shy away from debate; he actively encourages "debate."

He is accustomed to inviting people with different positions to refute his research views after publication. In his view, the real danger is not being opposed, but rather that research conclusions are self-consistent in a closed environment without ever undergoing external validation.

This habit stems from his early training in materials chemistry:
Every conclusion needs a source, every piece of logic needs to be traceable, and every judgment must be able to be reviewed.

Because of this, he maintains a restrained and strict standard for his research—he would rather be slow than sacrifice accuracy to attract attention. In an industry overwhelmed with information, this "slow thinking" has helped him avoid a lot of noise.

In his view, the biggest challenge in the crypto industry is not a lack of information, but how to judge which information is worth believing. The methodology formed during his academic research phase has become an important tool for him in filtering information.

4. Investment Philosophy: A Portfolio That Allows You to "Sleep Well"

When it comes to asset allocation, Todd provides a portfolio structure he currently endorses—Bitcoin + US Treasuries.

The logic is not complicated:

• Bitcoin: Just observe one variable—whether major economies are still expanding their money supply. As long as the fiat currency system continues to inflate, Bitcoin's value as a "non-sovereign, limited supply asset" will not disappear.

• US Treasuries: Locking in long-term returns of around 4%--5% during a high-interest rate period provides stable cash flow for the portfolio.

He sees this as forming a complete closed loop:
If money printing continues, Bitcoin benefits; if money printing stops, US Treasuries provide stable returns.

"This is a portfolio that allows one to sleep well in the long term."

5. The Underrated Killer Application: Stablecoins

If Bitcoin is the first killer application in the blockchain space, then in Todd's view, stablecoins are the second, and they are still underrated.

After living and working overseas, his perception of the value of stablecoins became very intuitive. The traditional banking system is not as stable as imagined, with account restrictions, compliance checks, and cross-border friction potentially arising at any time. Stablecoins, on the other hand, only require a wallet to complete value transfers globally.

On the topic of RWA, he maintains a restrained and differentiated attitude:
He is cautious about "full tokenization of securities," believing that traditional finance is already highly mature in these areas; however, he shows a clear long-term optimism for stablecoin products anchored to real yield assets, especially US Treasuries.

In this context, he also pays attention to products like BMRUSD launched by BitMart (in collaboration with DigiFT). These stablecoins, anchored to real assets and providing predictable returns, are more likely to be accepted by the market under the trend of compliance.

"Once you’ve used a stablecoin, it’s hard to fully return to the traditional banking system."

The Silicon-Based Perspective of AI: Crypto is Its Natural Solution

Regarding the relationship between AI and crypto, Todd does not get lost in conceptual overlays but thinks from a structural perspective.

In his view, AI-assisted trading is an almost inevitable direction. As model capabilities continue to improve, the stability and speed of AI at the execution level will eventually surpass that of most human traders.

More importantly, there are issues of collaboration and payment between AIs. When AIs begin to call services from each other, procure computing power or data, binding a bank card is clearly unrealistic. High-precision, programmable, permissionless stablecoins become the most natural settlement medium.

From this perspective, crypto is not a subordinate narrative to AI but a natural complement to it at the economic level.

When asked whether he feels anxious about being replaced by AI as a content creator, Todd stated that one should prepare for its arrival in advance.

Advice for Newcomers and Three Judgments on 2026

For newcomers wanting to enter the industry, Todd offers practical and conservative advice:
Learn the technology first, then learn trading.
Understanding the technical principles of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and DeFi is far more important than fixating on K-lines at the beginning.

Regarding future judgments, he presents three main themes:

1. Crypto finds its place in the AI wave: AI provides productivity, and crypto provides production relationships.

2. The scenarios for stablecoins continue to expand: payments, wealth management, and cross-border settlements will truly enter the public eye.

3. Compliance brings structural increments: the participation of large financial institutions will push the industry into a new stage of development.

Slow Judgment is the Long-Term Competitive Edge

Todd does not chase the peaks of narratives. He resembles someone who is always moving within the structure: researching, validating, building, and reviewing.

In a highly cyclical industry, the market rewards speed, but those who ultimately remain are often those who truly understand the structure and are willing to take responsibility for every word.

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This episode was recorded on December 16, 2025. To listen to the full content, please search for and follow "Market Observation Bureau" on Xiaoyuzhou, Apple Podcast, or Spotify.
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Risk Warning:
The opinions or views expressed in this program only represent the personal stance of the guest and do not represent the views of BitMart or its affiliates, nor should they be considered professional financial investment advice.
Cryptocurrency investment is highly speculative and carries significant risk of loss. Past performance, hypothetical situations, or simulated results do not represent future returns. The value of digital currencies may fluctuate, and buying, holding, or trading digital currencies may involve significant risks. Before participating in trading or holding digital currencies, please carefully assess their suitability based on your investment goals, financial situation, and risk tolerance. BitMart does not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice.