Analysis: The claim that the Venezuelan government secretly holds a large amount of Bitcoin lacks on-chain evidence to support it

Regarding the recent market rumors that "the Venezuelan government may secretly hold Bitcoin worth hundreds of billions of dollars," analysts have pointed out that this claim is largely based on speculation and second-hand information, and currently lacks credible on-chain evidence that can directly link the relevant funds to wallets controlled at the national level by Venezuela.

The related doubts mainly focus on three potential sources: the conversion of gold sold in 2018 into Bitcoin, oil revenues settled in Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies, and Bitcoin mining equipment confiscated by the government. Analysts believe that while some oil transactions in Venezuela have indeed been settled in crypto assets, and there have been cases of mining equipment being confiscated by the government, there is no reliable evidence to indicate that the proceeds from the gold sales in 2018 were largely converted into Bitcoin.

Furthermore, analysts point out that the long-standing systemic corruption in Venezuela makes it more likely that any crypto asset-related gains would be siphoned off by individuals rather than entering the official national reserve system. For example, in cases related to the national oil company and regulatory agencies, substantial funds have been misappropriated in recent years, yet this has not been reflected in the official reserve data.

In terms of mining, the view is that aging power infrastructure, prolonged power outages, and the government's inadequate management capabilities in complex operations make it difficult to maintain stable large-scale Bitcoin mining operations. Overall, there is currently insufficient evidence to support the judgment that the Venezuelan government holds a large-scale "secret Bitcoin reserve," and related claims remain in the realm of speculation.