Tom Lee's "bearish" analyst: A "risk liquidation event" may occur in the first half of the year, leading to increased volatility

Fundstrat's Head of Digital Asset Strategy, Sean Farrell, stated in an interview that Bitcoin is still on track to reach "$1 million" in the long term, with strong structural tailwinds for quality crypto assets. The year 2026 will be a "trader's market," and the first half may see a "risk clearing event," leading to increased volatility, which could see Bitcoin drop to $60,000 (a deep value zone, a "buy the dip" opportunity). In the second half, improved liquidity, policy stimulus, and AI-driven growth will present excellent opportunities.

Regarding Ethereum, Sean Farrell believes that ETH is viewed by traditional asset managers as a "small-cap tech stock." Benefiting from the narrative of real-world asset (RWA) tokenization (with a year-on-year growth of 145% in Q3 2025, bringing higher quality assets into DeFi and enhancing value capture). Therefore, the year-end target price is around $4,500.

For SOL, Sean Farrell thinks it will compete with ETH for RWA market share but lacks support from traditional asset managers. Its advantages include high throughput, upgrades (such as Alpenglow and Firedancer), and potential inflation reduction. Price expectations: a drop to $50-$75 in Q1/Q2, followed by a rebound to $220-$260.

After the risk clearing, altcoins will be an "excellent cocktail"; after ETH outperforms BTC, altcoins with reliable token economics and solid traction will perform significantly, especially those related to RWA.

Previously reported, Tom Lee stated in an interview that "Bitcoin may reach a new all-time high by the end of January 2026," while Fundstrat analyst Sean Farrell mentioned in a report on the 20th that "Bitcoin may drop to $60,000 to $65,000 in the first half of 2026, and Ethereum may fall to $1,800 to $2,000."