Bitget 2025 Global Market Year-End Review: Dollar Retreat, AI Frenzy, Crypto Shuffle, Gold and Silver Peak

Preface

Standing at the end of 2025, looking back at the global capital markets of this year, we have witnessed not only the rise and fall of numbers but also a profound paradigm revolution. As Trump returns to the White House, Nvidia's market value surpasses $5 trillion, gold historically reaches $4,000, and Bitcoin experiences violent fluctuations amidst policy games—we realize that the old world order is collapsing, and the contours of a new era have yet to become clear.

This year, the market seeks order amidst chaos, firmly betting on seemingly small yet certain trends in a highly uncertain environment. The return of political strongmen ignites the flames of policy uncertainty, the rapid advance of artificial intelligence spawns the expansion of the trillion-dollar club, and the loosening of monetary order triggers a reconstruction of global asset pricing.

I. Macro Changes—Reconstructing Order in Power Games

Trump's Trade: From Threat to Predictable Policy Tool

On January 20, 2025, Trump was sworn in for the second time, marking the beginning of the "policy reassessment era" in global capital markets. Trump's "MAGA 2.0" policy package contains three core elements: weaponizing trade protectionism, radicalizing fiscal expansion, and localizing industrial return. This policy combination essentially sacrifices the efficiency of globalization in exchange for domestic political stability.

The tariff farce in April became the most representative event of the year. On April 2, Trump imposed "reciprocal tariffs" on major trading partners, causing the S&P 500 index to plummet 9% that week, with global stock market value evaporating by over $5 trillion. However, just a week later, on April 9, he suddenly announced a 90-day suspension of tariffs, leading to a swift market rebound of 5.7%, the largest single-week gain since November 2020.

This cycle of "policy threat-market panic-policy concession-market euphoria" is a carefully designed political economy experiment. The market gradually learned to find signals amidst the noise, and "TACO trading" became a buzzword. By October, when Trump threatened to impose tariffs again, the panic index only rose to 22, far below April's 38, indicating that the market had begun to view Trump's tariff threats as a predictable policy tool rather than a true "black swan."

The essence of Trump economics is using policy uncertainty as a negotiation tool, seeking a dynamic balance between protectionism and globalization. Although this model increases short-term volatility, it also creates significant alpha opportunities for investors who can accurately predict policy directions. In 2026, as the election approaches, this policy game will become more frequent, and the market will need to learn to find patterns amidst chaos.

The Fed's Difficult Choice: The Dilemma of Fighting Inflation and Preventing Recession

At the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22, Powell publicly acknowledged for the first time that "the path to rate cuts is clear," and the market immediately priced in a 75 basis point cut for the year. This prediction proved quite accurate—three rate cuts in September, October, and December brought the federal funds rate down from 4.5% to 3.75%.

More notably, on December 10, the RMP (Reserve Management Purchase Program) was announced, with the Fed stating it would purchase $40 billion in short-term government bonds each month. This essentially amounts to a form of quantitative easing, and the Fed is finding it increasingly difficult to balance debt monetization with inflation control.

Looking ahead to 2026, the Fed faces a more complex situation. Powell's term will end in May 2026, and the policy stance of his successor remains unclear. If Trump is re-elected, he may appoint a more dovish chair, further weakening the Fed's independence. Meanwhile, inflation has not been fully tamed. In this context, the Fed's policy space is very limited. Continuing to cut rates could reignite inflation; stopping easing too early could trigger a recession.

This dilemma means that the monetary policy path in 2026 will be more tortuous, and market volatility will remain high. Investors need to closely monitor the wording changes in each FOMC meeting, looking for trading opportunities in the subtle differences in policy.

The Undercurrents of Dollar Hegemony: Credit Devaluation and Multipolar Trends

In the macro narrative of 2025, the most profound change is the quiet loosening of the dollar's status. The dollar index plummeted 12.5% over the year, dropping from the 110 mark at the beginning of the year to a low of 96.37 in July, marking the worst half-year performance since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1973.

This crisis stems from a "triple threat": the narrowing of the U.S. economic advantage, which weakens the motivation for capital to flow into the U.S.; the depletion of U.S. fiscal credit, leading international investors to demand higher risk premiums, with the proportion of foreign investors holding U.S. Treasuries hitting a 20-year low; and the disappearance of interest rate advantages, as the Fed cuts rates while other central banks remain inactive.

The dollar's weakness casts a wide impact on asset prices: a comprehensive rise in commodities, with prices of gold, silver, copper, and aluminum soaring. Additionally, non-dollar currencies generally appreciated, with the euro rising from 1.03 to 1.17 against the dollar and the yuan rising from 7.2 to 7.0. Finally, the attractiveness of emerging market assets increased, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rising 28% over the year, outperforming the S&P 500 by nearly 13 percentage points.

Of course, the loosening of dollar hegemony does not equate to collapse. The dollar still holds an absolute dominant position in global foreign exchange reserves and international trade settlements.

But history tells us that the decline of hegemony often begins with erosion at the margins rather than collapse at the center. The pound was still the world's largest reserve currency in 1914, but by the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944, the dollar had taken its place. This process took 30 years. Although the challenges facing the dollar today are not as severe as those faced by the pound back then, the trend toward multipolarity is becoming increasingly clear. For investors, the key is not to predict when dollar hegemony will end, but to find structural opportunities in the process of multipolarity—whether in physical assets, non-dollar currencies, or emerging markets benefiting from currency diversification.

II. Cryptocurrency Market—The Year of Compliance Driven by Policy

From Wild West to Regulation: Policy Becomes the Biggest Alpha

If one word could summarize the cryptocurrency market of 2025, it would be "the year of compliance." This year, crypto assets completely bid farewell to the speculative frenzy of the Wild West era and entered a policy-driven institutional cycle. From Trump's executive orders to congressional legislation, from strategic reserves to the explosion of ETFs, the clarification of the U.S. regulatory framework not only did not stifle the industry but instead spurred historic market movements.

The price of Bitcoin in 2025 exhibited a clear "three-stage rocket" pattern, with each stage catalyzed by specific policies.

The first stage was ignited on January 20. After Trump's official inauguration, he signed a pro-crypto executive order, clearly opposing central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and establishing the strategic position of the private crypto industry. This statement directly eliminated the "regulatory sword of Damocles" that had troubled the market for years. Investors began to believe that cryptocurrencies would not face the regulatory iron fist as they did in 2022, but would receive policy treatment equivalent to traditional finance. Bitcoin quickly rose from $74,000 at the beginning of the year to a peak of $109,600 on January 20. Mainstream cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Solana also rose in tandem, pushing the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies above $3 trillion.

The second stage was ignited on March 6. Trump signed the "Establishing Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Executive Order," announcing that the U.S. government would establish a national Bitcoin reserve to address future monetary crises. This policy not only officially recognized Bitcoin's value but also elevated cryptocurrencies from marginal assets to sovereign-level strategic assets. However, the momentum of the second stage was soon offset by macro factors. In March and April, under the risk of Trump's tariff conflicts, global risk assets came under pressure, and Bitcoin temporarily fell to a low of $74,500.

The real upward momentum came from the third stage—the implementation of legislation. On July 18, the "GENIUS Stablecoin Act" was officially passed in Congress, marking the establishment of a complete legal framework for cryptocurrencies in the U.S. This cleared the last barrier for traditional financial capital to enter the crypto market and was seen as a signal for large-scale entry. In July, Bitcoin spot ETF inflows reached $8.9 billion, the highest for the year. Bitcoin's price soared from $92,000 at the beginning of July, breaking through $120,000 by the end of July, reaching a historic high of $124,470. Traditional asset management giants like BlackRock and Fidelity became major buyers. Public companies began to include Bitcoin on their balance sheets. MicroStrategy increased its Bitcoin holdings by over 150,000 throughout the year, with Tesla, Block, and other tech companies following suit.

The warning of the October 11 crash: Macro Factors Remain Dominant

However, behind the euphoria, risks were accumulating. The "10.11 crash" in October became the most brutal scene of the year, providing a profound lesson for the crypto market.

In early October, Bitcoin continued its strong performance, reaching a new high of $126,000 on October 7. The market widely expected that with continued ETF inflows and global liquidity easing, Bitcoin would head towards $150,000. However, on the evening of October 10, a sudden piece of news shattered all illusions.

Trump threatened on social media that if China did not make concessions in trade negotiations, he would impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods. This statement immediately triggered a risk-averse sentiment in global risk assets. Asian stock markets opened sharply lower on Friday, with the A-share market dropping 3.2% in a single day, and the Hang Seng Index falling 4.1%. When U.S. stocks opened, the S&P 500 index opened down 2.8%, and the Nasdaq index fell 3.5%.

The reaction in the cryptocurrency market was even more severe. Bitcoin began a waterfall-style decline in the early hours of October 11, plummeting from $126,000 to $101,000 in just 12 hours, a drop of nearly 20%. Mainstream cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Solana experienced even larger declines of 25% and 32%, respectively. The total liquidation amount across the network reached $19.8 billion, marking the third highest record in history, only behind the crashes of May 2021 and November 2022.

This crash exposed the fragility of the crypto market: when macro systemic risks emerged, Bitcoin failed to function as a safe-haven asset and instead became the first high-risk asset to be sold off. The high-leverage trading structure exacerbated the cascading effect, with a large number of long positions being forcibly liquidated, creating a negative feedback loop.

Paradigm Shift: From Technical Narrative to Macro Narrative

Looking back at the entire year of 2025, Bitcoin started at $74,000, peaked at $126,000, and ended the year around $90,000, with an annual decline of about 6.6%. In stark contrast, gold rose 70% over the year, silver rose 124%, and physical precious metals outperformed digital assets.

This result prompted deep reflection in the market: what exactly is Bitcoin? Is it a tool for hedging inflation, a safe-haven asset against currency devaluation, or merely a speculative target during liquidity easing? The performance in 2025 provided a harsh answer: Bitcoin failed to demonstrate its safe-haven properties during multiple crises in 2025 and instead behaved as a high-beta tool extremely sensitive to liquidity withdrawal.

A deeper issue is that the pricing factors in the crypto market have fundamentally changed. In the past, Bitcoin's price was mainly driven by on-chain indicators (active addresses, transaction volume) and industry events (halving, technical upgrades, hacking incidents). However, the market performance in 2025 shows that macro factors such as the Fed's monetary policy, U.S. fiscal policy, and global geopolitical events are becoming increasingly important in influencing Bitcoin's price.

This means that Bitcoin has become deeply embedded in the traditional financial system and is no longer an "alternative asset" independent of the macro economy. Industry positives are also difficult to offset macro negatives. When the Fed releases hawkish signals, local geopolitical risks rise, and global liquidity tightens, no matter how much policy support or institutional entry the crypto industry has, Bitcoin's price will struggle to stand alone. The macro β attribute of crypto assets has become an unavoidable reality.

The narrative of "digital gold" needs time to be validated. For Bitcoin to truly become a widely accepted store of value, it must at least undergo a complete economic recession cycle to prove its resilience in crises. Until then, positioning Bitcoin as a "high-risk growth asset" rather than a "safe-haven asset" may be a more realistic attitude. In 2026, the trajectory of the crypto market will still largely depend on the macro liquidity environment and policy regulatory progress, and investors need to be mentally prepared for high volatility.

III. U.S. Stock Market—AI Bubble, Energy Revolution, and Valuation Reconstruction

Two Shocks of the AI Bubble: Dual Questions of Technology and Business Models

The U.S. stock market in 2025 continued its strong momentum, with the three major indices frequently hitting historical highs. By the end of the year, the Nasdaq index had risen 22%, the S&P 500 index had risen 17%, and the Dow Jones index had risen 14%.

The AI narrative remains one of the main lines guiding the U.S. stock market. Google surged over 66%, with its breakthrough in Gemini making it the biggest gainer among the "seven giants," while Nvidia rose over 40% to surpass a $5 trillion market cap; the AI industry chain flourished: data center construction drove NEBIUS up 225%, CoreWeave up over 100%, and storage chips welcomed a "super cycle" due to the explosion of AI data, with Micron Technology soaring 230%; on the software side, Palantir rose 157%, Applovin rose 125%, and AI healthcare stock Guardant Health surged over 235%.

This appears to be another tech stock-led bull market, but profound structural changes have occurred within the market. The most shocking events of the year were the two shocks to the AI valuation bubble.

The first shock came from the technical level. On January 27, DeepSeek released the DeepSeek-V3 open-source large model, with training costs of only $5.6 million, while GPT-4 exceeded $100 million. This news sent shockwaves through the global AI industry, leading the market to realize: could the massive capital expenditures by giants constructing a moat of computing power be breached by low-cost, high-efficiency model architectures? On January 27, Nvidia plummeted 17%, evaporating nearly $600 billion in market value, marking the largest single-day loss in U.S. stock history. The chip index fell over 9%, with Broadcom down 17% and TSMC down 13%.

This "DeepSeek Shockwave" became a watershed moment in 2025. The market began to reassess whether the technological barriers behind the high valuations of AI giants were solid and whether the return cycles of massive capital expenditures were justified. However, Nvidia gradually restored confidence with solid earnings reports, and Wall Street analysts suggested that DeepSeek's breakthrough would not threaten its business but rather accelerate industry adoption by lowering the barriers to AI usage, thereby expanding the overall market size. Nvidia's stock price soared alongside its performance, and on October 28, Nvidia surpassed a $5 trillion market cap, becoming the first publicly traded company in human history to do so.

The second shock targeted business models. On September 10, Oracle signed a $300 billion computing power procurement agreement with OpenAI, stipulating that OpenAI would purchase computing power from Oracle between 2027 and 2032. This deal caused Oracle's stock price to soar 35% in a single day. However, the market soon questioned this "AI circular trading" model: is it value creation or financial games when suppliers invest in customers, who then purchase services?

These doubts were validated after Oracle released its quarterly earnings report. Although revenue grew 28% year-on-year, new orders from external customers fell short of expectations, with most growth coming from transactions with related parties like OpenAI and CoreWeave. Free cash flow growth was only 12%, far below revenue growth, indicating issues with business quality. The market reacted immediately, and Oracle's stock price fell from its September peak, ending the year down 45%, nearly halving.

These two upheavals reveal a new reality of AI investment: the market has shifted from "narrative hype" to "performance validation." Funds are no longer blindly buying into the capital expenditure stories of giants but are beginning to focus on the actual implementation and commercialization returns at the application layer of AI.

Power Shortages Give Rise to New Investment Themes: A Shift from Computing Power to Energy

As the market becomes more cautious about pure AI hardware and software valuations, a new investment theme has emerged: power infrastructure. A report released by Morgan Stanley in October pointed out that as AI infrastructure construction accelerates, the electricity demand for U.S. data centers is surging, with a projected power shortfall of up to 44 gigawatts by 2028, equivalent to the output of 44 nuclear power plants.

The capital market quickly sensed the opportunity, and power-related concept stocks became the new favorites. The first investment theme is the revival of nuclear power. Oklo Inc soared 280% over the year, Centrus Energy rose nearly 300%, Energy Fuels rose nearly 200%, and GE Vernova rose over 100%. These companies share a common focus on small modular reactors (SMRs), which have advantages of short construction cycles, flexible siting, and high safety.

The second investment theme is fuel cells and energy storage. Bloom Energy surged 327% over the year, becoming the top gainer among power stocks. The company's solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) technology can directly convert natural gas into electricity, and its installations can be completed on-site without relying on the grid, making it ideal for providing distributed power to data centers. Companies like Alphabet and Apple have deployed Bloom Energy's fuel cell systems in their campuses, with a total installed capacity exceeding 800 megawatts.

Market Breadth Expands: From a Tech Stock Solo to a Multi-Sector Chorus

Another important feature of the U.S. stock market in 2025 is the significant widening of the breadth of gains. Although tech stocks remain the engine, traditional sectors such as industrials, financials, and energy are beginning to contribute substantial returns, shifting the market from a "tech stock solo" to a "multi-sector chorus."

Data shows that 79% of the S&P 500's gains in 2025 came from earnings growth rather than valuation expansion, and the gains have broadened from technology to financials, industrials, utilities, and other sectors; despite overall valuations being at a historically high level of 91%, the "seven giants" that contributed 43% of returns had a relative valuation of only 15%. Meanwhile, since the Russell 2000 small-cap index rose 11% from a short-term low on November 20, the "tech seven giants" index's gains were only half of that.

As 2026 approaches, Wall Street is forming an increasingly clear consensus: the tech giants that led the bull market in recent years will no longer be the only protagonists in the market, and sector rotation will become the new investment theme for the coming year. Goldman Sachs noted that the global stock market in 2025 has shown a clear trend of widening sector gains and rotation, a trend that will continue to strengthen in 2026, breaking the previous market concentration on AI tech stocks. Therefore, non-dollar and non-tech sectors are expected to continue performing strongly under rotation in 2026. Morgan Stanley analysts share a similar view: large tech stocks will still perform well but will lag behind new leading sectors, especially consumer goods and small-cap stocks.

This means that investors need to step out of the comfort zone of tech stocks and seek opportunities in traditional sectors, shifting focus from tech giants to undervalued traditional cyclical stocks, small-cap stocks, and economically sensitive sectors such as healthcare, industrials, energy, and financials.

IV. Commodities—The Resonance of Fiat Currency Credit Devaluation and Physical Scarcity

Gold Breaks $4,000: A Vote of No Confidence in the Fiat Currency System

In 2025, physical assets experienced a rare super bull market, with prices of gold, silver, copper, and other commodities soaring collectively. This is not merely a hedge against inflation but a vote of no confidence by global investors in the fiat currency system. When sovereign debt expands, fiscal discipline loosens, and the credibility of monetary policy declines, only physical assets without sovereign credit can provide a real margin of safety.

Gold's performance was the most astonishing. At the beginning of the year, the spot price of gold was $2,624 per ounce; by the end of the year, it had reached $4,200, with an annual increase of over 70%, marking the strongest performance since 1979. Even more shocking was the sustainability of the rise—gold recorded positive monthly returns in 9 out of 12 months, with only 3 months showing losses, a trend strength that is impressive.

The logic driving gold prices has undergone a structural change. Traditional theory posits that gold prices are negatively correlated with the real yield on U.S. Treasuries, but in 2025, this correlation weakened. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose above 4.6%, the highest level since May, yet gold prices rose 70%. This indicates that the pricing logic has shifted from "interest rate pricing" to "credit pricing"—investors are no longer concerned about the opportunity cost of holding gold but rather the credit risk of holding fiat currency assets.

In this context, gold's role is not to hedge against short-term inflation or market volatility but to hedge against long-term currency credit risk. It serves as a form of "ultimate insurance"—it may underperform other assets during normal times but can preserve or even increase value when systemic crises erupt. The performance in 2025 reinforced this positioning, with an increasing number of institutional investors incorporating gold into their long-term strategic allocations.

Silver's Frenzy: From Monetary Attribute to Key Material for New Industries

If gold's rise is primarily driven by its monetary attributes, silver's explosive growth benefits from both its monetary and industrial properties. Silver's annual increase reached 140%, soaring from $29 per ounce at the beginning of the year to nearly $80 per ounce by year-end, a surge far exceeding that of gold, making it the best-performing commodity of 2025.

Silver's monetary attributes are similar to gold's; in the context of dollar depreciation and questioning of sovereign credit, silver has also been sought after. Compared to gold's high threshold of over $4,000 per ounce, silver's lower price makes it more accessible to individual investors.

The explosion in industrial demand is also one of the factors driving silver prices skyward, with photovoltaic, AI, and new energy vehicles becoming new demand engines for silver: major economies worldwide are accelerating photovoltaic deployment; in AI chips, silver is indispensable in high-performance chips; and in electric vehicles, each electric vehicle uses an average of about 55 grams of silver, primarily for battery management systems, motors, and charging stations.

However, silver also experienced several sharp rises and falls in 2025. On April 4, liquidity tensions triggered by tariff fears caused silver to plummet 7.06% in a single day, with a cumulative drop exceeding 15% over two days. On October 21, London spot silver fell 7.11% in a single day, marking the largest drop since early 2021, with a cumulative decline of 11.7% over three days. These flash crashes do not signify the end of the trend but rather a violent cleansing of excessive leverage and floating profits. After each deep correction, silver prices quickly regained lost ground and reached new highs.

Looking ahead to 2026, major banks generally predict that the super cycle logic for silver remains intact. Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup, and other investment banks have raised their target prices, generally expecting silver to reach $100 per ounce in 2026. Of course, high volatility also means high risk. For investors, it is essential to be mentally prepared for significant fluctuations.

The Divergence of Precious Metals and Oil: The Deep Impact of Energy Transition

In stark contrast to the prosperity of precious metals is the decline of oil. Brent crude oil prices fell from $78 per barrel at the beginning of the year, although they briefly rebounded to $78 in June due to Middle Eastern conflicts, they quickly retreated, ending the year around $62, with an annual decline of over 20%. This structural shift indicates that oil is transitioning from a "growth commodity" to a "sunset commodity." While geopolitical conflicts may still trigger spikes in oil prices in the short term, the long-term trend is one of shrinking demand and oversupply.

The divergence between precious metals and oil essentially reflects the replacement of old and new energy systems. Investors need to recognize that the traditional commodity cycle logic is becoming ineffective, and the long-term trend of energy transition will continue to reshape the commodity landscape. New energy materials such as copper, lithium, nickel, and cobalt will continue to benefit, while the long-term prospects for oil, natural gas, and coal appear dim. This is not merely a cyclical fluctuation but a paradigm shift.

Conclusion: Maintain Awe and Courage, Diversification is More Important Than Ever

Looking back at 2025, we witnessed too many "impossibilities" occur: Trump returning to the White House, Nvidia surpassing $5 trillion, gold reaching $4,000, Bitcoin experiencing rollercoaster rides driven by policy, and the dollar posting its worst performance in half a century. These events collectively point to a reality: we are at the forefront of a paradigm revolution, the old order is collapsing, and new rules have yet to be established.

In such an era, the greatest challenge in investing is not predicting the future but maintaining clarity amidst uncertainty. The market will reward those who maintain both awe and courage—awe in recognizing the limits of their understanding and acknowledging that black swans cannot be predicted; courage in executing decisively once direction is confirmed, without being deterred by short-term fluctuations.

The core lessons that 2025 has taught us are threefold:

First, policy has become the largest source of alpha. Whether it is the compliance of cryptocurrencies, the tariff games in the U.S. stock market, or the logic of currency devaluation in commodities, policy factors are at play behind it all. Traditional fundamental analysis remains important, but without accurately predicting policy directions, even the most sophisticated models will fail. Investors need to establish a macro policy analysis framework and closely track policy dynamics in the U.S., China, the EU, and Japan.

Second, the lifecycle of narratives is shortening. In the past, a good story could drive stock prices up for years (like the FAANG stocks from 2017 to 2021). However, in 2025, from the DeepSeek shock to Oracle's fallout, the speed of market validation of narratives has accelerated significantly. This requires investors to move beyond the "storytelling" phase and delve into business details to verify the sustainability of business models. Those who only chase hot trends without conducting in-depth research will face more painful losses in 2026.

Third, diversification is more important than ever. In 2025, the risks of holding a single asset class were laid bare: those holding a single tech stock suffered heavy losses in the DeepSeek shock, those holding a single cryptocurrency faced liquidation in the 10.11 crash, and those holding a single fiat currency saw their value shrink amid currency devaluation. Only those investors who balanced allocations across stocks, bonds, commodities, and alternative assets achieved stable returns.

Looking ahead to 2026, we will face a year that is both more turbulent and filled with opportunities. The U.S. elections, changes in Fed leadership, the situation in the Middle East, AI commercialization, and energy transition—each variable could trigger significant market tremors. But as Buffett said, "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful—but most importantly, never waste a crisis."

Crisis is opportunity. When dollar hegemony loosens, the window for allocating physical assets opens; when the AI bubble bursts, truly valuable applications surface; when the market experiences panic selling, quality assets become available at discounted prices. The key is to maintain a calm mind, have ample cash reserves, and be prepared to strike at any moment.

The paradigm revolution of 2025 teaches us: the future is not predicted but shaped by every decision, every trade, and every steadfastness we make today.

Let us carry the lessons of 2025, with awe for uncertainty and a thirst for opportunity, as we confidently move toward 2026.

It will be a challenging year, but it will also be a great year.