Global Wealth Shift: Disruption and Reconstruction of Investment Strategies in the Next Decade

Author: Wang Lijie

We are standing at multiple breaking points in history, and a new normal that is more intense and disruptive than we imagine is on the horizon. The three pillars that have supported global economic prosperity over the past forty years—demographic dividends, globalization of labor division, and inclusive technological advancement—are simultaneously collapsing before our eyes. This is not alarmism, but a reality we must confront. The next decade, from 2026 to 2035, will witness earth-shattering changes that will profoundly impact our wealth landscape and investment strategies.

"4B Movement" and "Fertility Strike": Deep Cracks in Social Structure

Let us first focus on a shocking phenomenon: the cliff-like decline in global fertility rates. This is not a simple numerical change, but a signal that social structures are undergoing profound transformation.

Take South Korea as an example, where the total fertility rate fell to an astonishing `0.72` in 2023. This means that, on average, each woman will have only `0.72` children in her lifetime. Such a level of decline far exceeds normal fluctuations in fertility rates, pointing directly to the shaking of social foundations. The situation in neighboring Japan is also unsatisfactory; although its fertility rate is slightly higher than that of South Korea, the number of births is expected to drop below `670,000` in 2025, marking the lowest point since statistics began in 1899, with a decline rate far exceeding the government's most pessimistic predictions.

Behind this trend are complex interwoven socio-economic factors. In South Korea, young women have launched a massive "4B Movement"—that is, "no marriage, no childbirth, no dating, no sexual relations." This sounds like a plot from a science fiction novel, yet it is happening in reality.

This "4B Movement" is essentially a "reproductive strike" against patriarchal capitalist society. Under the multiple pressures of workplace gender discrimination, "widow-style parenting," and social stereotypes, young women in South Korea have chosen this form of resistance. When they feel that social mobility is unattainable and even maintaining a decent life is difficult, "cutting off descendants" becomes a rational and final counterattack.

The consequences of this phenomenon are devastating. South Korea has the fastest aging population in the world, with projections indicating that by 2065, those aged 65 and older will account for nearly half of the population. This not only means that the pension system will face immense pressure but will also deliver a comprehensive blow to national finances, healthcare systems, and even military recruitment. In Japan, young people are generally trapped in a state of "low desire," avoiding marriage and childbirth, and no longer believing that hard work will lead to a good life, instead pursuing low-cost personal entertainment. This represents a form of "mild despair," a laid-back attitude towards life.

Economic Nihilism and Climate Anxiety: Reshaping the Worldview of the Younger Generation

You might think this is a unique situation in East Asian countries. However, Western developed nations are also experiencing similar demographic trends, albeit for slightly different reasons.

Today's young people, especially those born after 2000, are generally permeated by a sense of "economic nihilism." They deeply feel that no matter how hard they work, the traditional "American Dream" or "middle-class life" is out of reach. Sky-high housing prices make homeownership a luxury, with a single house potentially requiring the entire income of two people over a decade. When the traditional path of "owning a house and a car, starting a family" is blocked, young people naturally choose to "live in the moment," seeking immediate pleasure or investing in high-risk cryptocurrencies, hoping for a "big win."

For them, having children is a typical "high investment, long cycle, low immediate return" project, which will naturally be excluded from their life plans. This rational consideration has led to a universal decline in fertility intentions worldwide.

In addition to economic factors, "climate anxiety" has also become an important factor influencing young people's decisions. Many young people in the West are reluctant to have children due to concerns about climate change. They believe that "bringing a child into a world destined to burn is immoral," which is not only an economic consideration but also a profound moral and ethical reflection. When people lose confidence in the future of the Earth, the instinct to reproduce can also be overwhelmed by this rational concern.

This trend of "active contraction" in population is spreading globally and will trigger a series of macroeconomic consequences in the coming years:

• Permanent tightening of the labor market: The decrease in young population will lead to a shortage of labor supply, especially in healthcare, construction, and low-end service industries. In the short term, this may push up wages, but the rising cost of living will outpace wage growth, leading to stubborn inflation.
• Collapse of total consumer demand: Avoiding marriage and childbirth means the disintegration of the family as a basic unit of consumption. Demand for durable goods such as houses, cars, and home appliances will shrink in the long term. Future consumption structures will shift towards experience-based and instant gratification consumption.
• Rewrite of the social contract: Our existing pension system is essentially a "Ponzi structure," relying on a continuously growing young population to pay pensions. As the base of the pyramid shrinks, the pension crisis will fully erupt in the 2030s. The government will then face the difficult choice of cutting benefits or initiating severe inflation.