Breaking through the killing line, why do young people turn to long-term speculation?

Original Title: The Prison Of Financial Mediocrity

Original Author: @systematicls, Quantitative Analyst

Original Compiler: Luffy, Foresight News

I am not a stock-picking expert. What I believe in is a strategy of casting a wide net with a low win rate (≤53%), but I am willing to bet everything on one viewpoint: long-term speculation will be the mainstream socio-economic theme of the next century.

This also explains why people over 40 advise you to focus on your job and seek salary increases, while those from other age groups ignore this advice and relentlessly pursue any opportunity that could lead to sudden wealth.

The best product to sell to this demographic is hope. Once you understand this, you will grasp why various casinos (including decentralized trading platforms, prediction markets, etc.) have emerged, and you will also understand why trading mentors, business moguls, paid courses, and of course, paid subscription columns on Substack are thriving.

The Beginning of the Predicament

Being trapped does not necessarily require a physical cage. Today, there is a generation moving forward with invisible shackles.

They know that a certain way of life truly exists: owning a house and a car, living steadily, and reaping rewards after working diligently for thirty years. They know that some people are living this life, yet they cannot imagine how to reach it themselves. It is not a matter of difficulty; they simply cannot map out a feasible path from their current situation to their ideal life.

The traditional path to wealth accumulation has long been closed off, not just made more difficult, but completely blocked. When the baby boomer generation, comprising 20% of the total population, holds nearly 50% of the nation's wealth, while the millennial generation, also at 20%, holds only 10%, the inherent flaws of this wealth accumulation mechanism become glaringly obvious.

The ladder to climb upward has been pulled away. This is not something the baby boomer generation has done intentionally; rising asset prices naturally benefit asset holders. But regardless of the original intent, the end result is the same.

The Collapse of Traditional Contracts

In the past, the implicit social contract was simple and clear: show up on time, work hard, and be loyal to the company, and you would be rewarded. Companies would provide pensions, seniority was crucial, and houses would quietly appreciate while you slept. As long as you trusted this system, it would work for you.

Today, this contract has become a mere piece of paper.

Working for 20 years at a company is no longer a plus in the workplace; it has become a career liability. Salary increases are only 8%, while housing prices have doubled, and the debt burden on young people has surged by about 33%. Patience alone cannot yield answers to wealth.

I once thought the situation was bad enough, but with the rise of artificial intelligence and the economic shock it is about to bring, I realize that the situation will only become more severe.

When the system no longer rewards patience, people will naturally abandon it. This is rational adaptation.

Push and Pull

Currently, two forces are propelling young people forward.

Pull: High-Level Needs Without a Place to Land

Modern society has largely addressed the basic needs outlined in Maslow's hierarchy. Food is cheap, basic housing is accessible, and while safety, healthcare, and basic employment are not guaranteed, they are sufficient to prevent most young people from struggling for survival.

The older generation, facing economic pressures, encounters a different dilemma. When you are worried about basic sustenance, you have no time to contemplate the meaning of life. Working hard is the obvious choice because failing to do so would lead to hunger. You accept a stable job and play it safe, as this job is your lifeline.

However, this generation does not have such survival shackles.

When survival needs are met, humans pursue higher-level needs: belonging, respect, and self-actualization. They crave rich life experiences, seek meaning in life, and desire direction and purpose rather than the monotony of day-to-day repetition. Yet, the traditional paths to fulfilling these higher needs—buying a house, career advancement, financial security—have all been completely blocked.

Essentially, we are like a group of gorillas instinctively scratching at the "scar" of self-actualization, bleeding yet helpless, completely unaware of how to break through.

Push: The Pressing Anxiety of Survival

Artificial intelligence is eating away at white-collar jobs, and this is a well-known fact.

This anxiety is not unfounded. The copy written by ChatGPT is superior to that of most entry-level marketers; the visual works generated by Midjourney far exceed the level of novice designers; the code written by Cursor and Claude is sufficient to pass review. Almost everyone, except those with severely outdated skills, acknowledges this.

Every month, new tests show that AI has reached or surpassed human levels in tasks that previously required high degrees and years of training.

White-collar workers, or those eager to improve their financial situation, are watching their career shelf life shrink. Three years ago, "AI will replace knowledge workers" was merely a thought experiment; today, it has become a preset premise in corporate planning. Everyone is asking "when will it replace" rather than "will it replace," and the predicted timelines are continually being moved forward.

Adding to the woes is social media, which keeps you perpetually dissatisfied with your current situation.

The ultimate goal of algorithms is to show you the life you could have. The vacation spots you haven't visited, the apartments you can't afford, the more refined lives of those one level above you. No matter what stage of life you are in, there is always someone living the life you aspire to, and the algorithm always manages to push that content right in front of you.

The lives that the older generation could access were very limited—just neighbors, colleagues, or a few celebrities in magazines, with an extremely narrow frame of reference. But now, the frame of reference has become infinitely broad. A 25-year-old earning $70,000 a year will constantly see content about peers making $2 million a year, living in Bali, and working only four hours a day. The standard of "good" keeps getting raised.

You can never catch up. No matter what achievements you attain, social media will always highlight your shortcomings. The gap between your real life and your ideal life is firmly maintained by algorithms, never to be bridged.

On one side, artificial intelligence is continuously compressing career prospects, while on the other, social media makes it impossible to feel satisfied. The pressure of "escape the predicament while there is still a chance" is growing day by day.

Anxiety is omnipresent. Every white-collar worker has pondered, "Can AI replace my job? When?" Most people arrive at an unoptimistic conclusion. Even if they believe they are temporarily safe, that temporary safety is continually shrinking.

Thus, this generation finds itself in a dilemma: unable to afford traditional life milestones while believing that traditional paths may completely disappear before they reach the finish line. Seizing the moment while they still have money and opportunities has become the most rational choice.

After all, why toil away for twenty years for a promotion that may not exist a decade from now?

The Maslow Trap

When you can survive but cannot move forward, something within you collapses. You are not yet desperate enough to accept any conditions, yet you are blocked from truly important opportunities. The energy that was once used for survival has transformed entirely into frustration, confusion, and a desperate search for any possible way out.

Career advancement is not just about salary increases; it is also about gaining a sense of purpose, identity, and the achievement of "my work has value." Financial security is not just about money; it is also about having the confidence to take risks, the freedom to travel the world, and the