Analysis: Bitcoin failed to hold the $90,000 mark, and the New Year market still awaits a recovery in demand

Bitcoin's year-end rebound to $90,000 has slowed down, constrained by insufficient demand and weakened on-chain activity. Analysts point out that only if BTC re-establishes itself above $90,000, accompanied by a recovery in demand, could a new round of increases begin in early 2026.

Data shows that Bitcoin's apparent demand (market buying demand - new selling supply) has turned negative, dropping to about -3,491 BTC, the lowest level since October, reflecting a risk-averse trend in the market during the year-end period. Meanwhile, the Coinbase premium index, which measures U.S. investor sentiment, has fallen to -0.08, indicating that selling pressure in the U.S. has not yet dissipated. Analysts warn that caution is needed for long positions until this indicator shows signs of recovery.

On the institutional side, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $782 million last week, further confirming a decline in institutional risk appetite. The market believes that if ETF funds turn back to net inflows, it will be an important signal for the resumption of the market.

In terms of price structure, Bitcoin is currently holding the support level of $84,000, but has faced resistance near $90,000 four times since mid-December. Analysts indicate that if the price effectively breaks through the $90,000-$92,000 range, upward momentum is expected to resume. Technically, some analysts have observed a potential hidden bullish divergence in the monthly chart, suggesting that if the monthly close is above $90,300, it will strengthen the bullish structure; if the breakout pattern is confirmed, subsequent targets could even point to $122,000.