Integrating VC Perspectives with On-Chain Data: Top Ten Trends and Valuation Analysis of the Crypto Market in 2026

Author: Bruce

After a deep study of the 2026 outlook reports published by top institutions including Messari, a16z, Fidelity, Coinbase, Galaxy, and Grayscale, and cross-referencing current on-chain active data, the author finds that the market is at a critical turning point.

The "casino narrative" of the past few years is fading, replaced by a "utility narrative" following the improvement of infrastructure. Combining the macro perspective of the primary market (VC) with the micro experience of the secondary market (on-chain interactions), the author makes the following ten trend predictions for the crypto market landscape in 2026.

1. Structural Transformation of the Market: Bitcoin Hits $250,000

For a long time, retail investors have been accustomed to judging bull and bear cycles based on Bitcoin's "four-year halving." However, the author believes that this logic is becoming ineffective.

With the approval of spot ETFs, increased adoption by sovereign nations, and ongoing allocations by corporate treasuries, the buying logic for Bitcoin has shifted from "cyclical speculation" to "strategic asset allocation." The continuous inflow of institutional funds (such as BlackRock) will smooth out the volatility caused by halving. Based on an analysis comparing global money supply (M2) growth with gold market capitalization, Bitcoin is expected to break the norm in this cycle and aim for a price peak of $250,000, exhibiting characteristics of a "slow bull" and "long bull."

2. Absence of "Altcoin Season," Revaluation of Leading Assets

Investors should be wary of the re-emergence of a "universal rise of all coins" market. In 2026, the market will undergo profound "de-bubbling" and "Matthew effect." Funds will no longer blindly overflow but will efficiently concentrate on leading assets with core moats, driving their revaluation:

Ethereum (ETH): As the settlement layer for global financial assets, current institutional expectations revolve around $5,000-$5,500. However, considering: (1) the absorption effect released by innovations in Uniswap v4 and MEV architecture, (2) the potential for TVL multiplication in the Liquid Staking derivatives ecosystem, (3) the convergence of DeFi cash flow compounding models with traditional financial valuations, it is expected to challenge the $8,000-$10,000 range in this cycle. If benchmarked against traditional financial settlement system valuation models, more aggressive expectations could reach $12,000+.

BNB: With strong cash flow buybacks and ecological dominance from the world's largest exchange, its attribute as the "industry shovel" will be further strengthened, with the potential to hit $3,000.

Solana (SOL): It has established a major monopolistic advantage in consumer-grade applications and high-frequency interaction scenarios. With the large-scale adoption of DePIN and AI projects, coupled with the rigid demand for high-speed, low-cost transactions in the AI Agent economy, the price of SOL tokens is expected to move towards the $400-$500 range in this cycle.

In contrast, the vast majority of long-tail tokens lacking actual revenue and users will face liquidity exhaustion and the risk of value going to zero.

3. Prediction Markets Evolving into "Information Infrastructure"

Prediction Markets are moving from the margins to the mainstream, even becoming a more efficient "truth discovery mechanism" than traditional media. This trend is confirmed by the explosive growth in market trading volume— in November 2025, Kalshi set a historical monthly trading volume record of $5.8 billion (up 32% month-over-month), while Polymarket reached $3.8 billion (up 24% month-over-month).

In the future, simple spot betting will no longer meet market demand. Data from platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Opinion Labs will be aggregated by aggregators, becoming new traffic entry points. More notably, the emergence of "event derivatives" for leveraged contract trading on elections, policies, or macro events will bring significant trading volume. At the same time, Polymarket is set to launch its governance token POLY (2026) and has secured $2 billion in financing support from ICE (the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange), indicating that prediction markets are officially entering an institutionalized track.

4. Restructuring of Stablecoin Landscape: Compliance and Yield are Key

The market capitalization of stablecoins is expected to further break through in 2026, expanding from the current $308 billion to a range of $500-$800 billion. In the longer term, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicts that the stablecoin market could reach $2 trillion by 2028. Among them, yield attributes and compliance moats will be key to market differentiation:

Yield Attributes: In an environment of U.S. Treasury yields, stablecoins that cannot provide risk-free returns to users will gradually lose their appeal, making "yield" a standard feature. Data shows that the value of yield-bearing stablecoins (like sUSDe) is expected to reach $6 billion by the end of 2025.

Compliance Moat: Tether's dominant position may face challenges. Compliance stablecoins, represented by Circle (USDC), which embrace regulation and have IPO expectations, are likely to significantly increase market share by integrating into traditional financial systems. Circle successfully IPO'd in 2025, with USDC's market cap growing to $76 billion, and has secured strategic partnerships with major financial institutions like JP Morgan and Citigroup.

5. AI Agent Economy Explodes, M2M Payments Become Mainstream

The intersection of artificial intelligence (AI) and cryptocurrency lies not in speculative concepts but in payment pathways. AI Agents cannot open traditional bank accounts, making stablecoins like USDC their natural funding vehicles.

Protocols designed specifically for Machine-to-Machine (M2M) payments, such as X402, are expected to see explosive growth. Notably, in September 2025, Google initiated the development of the Agent Payments Protocol (AP2) with participation from over 60 payment and tech companies (including Coinbase, PayPal, Mastercard, American Express), aiming to establish industry-level payment standards for AI agents. X402, as a foundational protocol, has been incorporated into this framework and recognized by mainstream payment systems. Meanwhile, the ERC-8004 proposal introduces on-chain Agent identity registration and reputation scoring mechanisms, establishing a trust foundation for high-frequency micropayments—Agents can stake ETH to prove their output quality, and failure to deliver as agreed results in slashing.

In 2026, automated high-frequency micropayments will become a significant contributor to on-chain activity, driving exponential growth in daily transaction volume and value.

6. RWA Deepening: On-Chainization of U.S. Stock Assets

Real World Assets (RWA) will break through the realm of government bonds and extend to more liquid equity assets.

Global investors have a strong demand for 24/7 trading of high-quality assets like Nvidia (NVIDIA) and Tesla. Through decentralized derivatives platforms like Hyperliquid, the market size for tokenized stocks is expected to exceed $10 billion, breaking the geographical and temporal barriers of traditional finance. At the same time, RWA infrastructure will undergo a qualitative change—programmable compliance standards represented by ERC-3643 will write legal rules directly into smart contracts, achieving automated compliance verification for asset transfers. Custody solutions like Fireblocks and Anchorage can already meet institutional security needs, while Oracle networks provide real-time asset valuations, and AI analyzes liquidity demand and detects anomalies. When technology is no longer a limiting factor, adoption will accelerate.

7. Privacy Track Repricing: Serving Institutions Rather than Illicit Activities

The narrative logic of privacy technology will undergo a fundamental shift. It is no longer the enemy of regulation but a necessity for traditional financial institutions to enter the space.

Large financial institutions (like JPMorgan) must build "on-chain dark pools" using privacy technology to prevent front-running or exposing positions during on-chain transactions. Meanwhile, the implementation of the EU's MiCA anti-money laundering rules in 2026 will put pressure on fully private solutions but also promote the recognition of solutions like Zcash (ZEC), which possess selective privacy and compliance-friendly characteristics.

Zcash saw significant institutional inflows by the end of 2025. Thanks to the audit compliance brought by Viewing Keys, its Shielded Pool activity reached an all-time high, gradually evolving into an 'on-chain dark pool' among institutions, with prices rising accordingly. Monero (XMR) continues to attract privacy advocates with its default privacy and firm decentralization stance.

Therefore, Zcash, Monero, or emerging privacy protocols are likely to be repriced by the market as "enterprise-grade privacy layers," becoming key components of on-chain financial infrastructure.

8. "Cleansing" and Integration of Layer 2

The fragmented competition in the Layer 2 space has entered a cleansing cycle. According to L2Beat data, as of December 2025, Base, Arbitrum, and Optimism together handle over 90% of total L2 transaction volume, with Base accounting for over 60% of consumer-grade transactions, and Arbitrum maintaining a leading 40% TVL share. In contrast, over 50 other L2 projects experienced a 61% decline in users in 2025, becoming "zombie chains."

The market will highly concentrate on two types of leading L2:

Consumer-grade application chains: Represented by Base, leveraging Coinbase's massive traffic entry and compliance advantages, leading retail user migration and DeFi application deployment. Base has become the de facto "Coinbase ecosystem payment layer."

Financial and DeFi chains: Represented by Arbitrum, accumulating high-net-worth TVL and institutional-level liquidity. Arbitrum's depth and maturity make it the preferred location for derivatives, lending, and complex financial applications.

Optimism's Superchain vision (achieving cross-chain atomic transactions and shared ordering) is also expected to become the standard for multi-chain deployment in DeFi, especially for applications requiring cross-L2 coordination.

L2s lacking "distribution capability," "liquidity advantages," or "institutional-grade infrastructure" will face severe survival crises.

9. "Fat Applications" Theory Replaces "Fat Protocol"

The once-esteemed "Fat Protocol" theory (that the underlying public chain captures most of the value) is becoming ineffective.

Market valuation logic will return to a revenue-centric model (Revenue is King). Those wallets, front-end applications, and super apps that directly own users and generate cash flow are expected to surpass the valuation of underlying infrastructure. The valuation model for protocols will increasingly resemble the subscription and cash flow models of SaaS companies. This means that the economic moats at the application layer (user stickiness, data ownership, brand) will be more valuable than the technical advantages of underlying protocols.

10. New Narrative: CeDeFi and Institutionalization

DeFi and TradFi (traditional finance) are no longer opposing forces but rather integrated relationships.

The core narrative of the future is "institutionalization." Funds from giants like BlackRock and Fidelity will operate through compliant DeFi tracks (CeDeFi). This integration retains the efficiency and transparency of DeFi while meeting the compliance requirements of traditional funds. The successful IPO of Circle, the institutional adoption of USDC, and the stablecoin collaborations with major banks like JP Morgan and Citigroup all confirm that this trend is underway.

This integration will introduce trillions of dollars in liquidity to the on-chain world, redefining the meaning of "finance" in the Web3 era.

Conclusion

If the previous cycle was characterized by speculative "Western gold rush," then 2026 will be the "industrial age" following the maturity of infrastructure.

Whether it is the investment logic of VCs or the trading strategies of Degens, they point in the same direction: utility and cash flow. For investors, the focus should shift from mere narrative speculation to protocols and applications that can create real economic value. In this era of revaluation, the winners will be those projects that establish closed-loop user economies, possess real revenue, and can prove sustainable cash flow.

Risk Warning: The prices of digital assets are highly volatile, and investment should be approached with caution. This article is for informational reference only and does not constitute investment advice.