Bitwise CIO: Bitcoin returns may be steady and upward in the next decade, but explosive growth is unlikely

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated that Bitcoin is expected to achieve sustained and robust returns over the next decade, but it is unlikely to replicate extreme annual gains. He pointed out that Bitcoin may enter a "long-term slow upward" phase, accompanied by relatively lower volatility, but will still experience periodic pullbacks. Hougan also maintains his view that Bitcoin will strengthen overall by 2026, believing that there is still upward potential for prices next year.

Hougan believes that the recent pullback in Bitcoin has significantly converged compared to historical cycles, mainly due to the continuous and slow inflow of institutional funds, which provides support against price declines. ReserveOne Chief Investment Officer Sebastian Beau stated that there is still controversy over whether the four-year cycle of Bitcoin has ended, as the current price has quickly fallen about 30% from its peak, but has not yet experienced the deep adjustments of over 60% seen in previous cycles. Some market participants remain cautious, with trader Peter Brandt expecting Bitcoin to potentially dip to $60,000 in the third quarter of 2026.

Regarding macro and policy factors, Hougan believes that the marginal impact of the Trump administration on Bitcoin prices is limited, as the regulatory stance on its "commodity attributes" has become relatively clear, and future policy changes may no longer serve as a major driving force for price increases.