Glassnode co-founder: Bitcoin price trend is positive, derivative trading pressure is dissipating

Glassnode co-founder Negentropic posted on platform X, stating that the overall price trend of Bitcoin is currently positive. During pullbacks, buying pressure continues to emerge, and recent lows remain strong. An important potential change is that the heavy burden of derivatives trading has finally dissipated. The largest Bitcoin options expiration in history has just passed, with a notional amount of approximately $23.6 billion.

For most of the past few weeks, the dynamics of hedging trades have put pressure on prices, and attempts to rise have mostly been mechanical rather than natural. This situation is changing. As these capital flows dissipate, Bitcoin prices are no longer constrained by hedging trades. When the price structure is no longer dominated by hedging trades, the price discovery mechanism often reasserts itself, and the current trend is more favorable for prices to continue rising.

On a macro level, the U.S. M2 money supply continues to expand, growing 4.3% year-on-year in November, reaching a historical high of $22.3 trillion. This marks the 21st consecutive month of expansion, currently about $400 billion higher than the peak in 2022. Even when adjusted for real value, liquidity is still rising, with inflation-adjusted M2 growing 1.5% year-on-year, marking the 15th consecutive month of growth. The long-term trend is clear: the devaluation of fiat currency has not stopped.