Matrixport Research: After months of caution, Bitcoin enters a structural game phase

Since mid-October, Bitcoin has been on a continuous decline, and market sentiment has clearly turned cautious. As the market discusses the "four-year cycle" again, some traders speculate that 2026 may still be under pressure. However, recent structural changes indicate that the market is entering a new phase that is different from a one-sided downward trend.

In the past few months, Bitcoin has been operating in an environment of converging volatility, deleveraging, and lack of risk appetite, with prices under sustained pressure. However, changes have emerged in the internal structure of the market based on derivatives positions, ETF fund flows, and key technical indicators. As the largest Bitcoin options expiration in history approaches, the distribution of strike prices is becoming an important window for observing market pressure and potential opportunities.

Low Volatility and Risk Reduction in Parallel: Year-End Market Maintains Range Fluctuation

In recent months, Bitcoin's implied volatility has continued to converge, and prices are likely to operate within the range of $70,000 to $100,000. On one hand, there is a lack of upward catalysts that could significantly drive prices out of this range in the short term, and event risks are relatively limited; on the other hand, the Federal Reserve's dovish stance may not meet previous market expectations, limiting the overall upward momentum of risk assets.

At the same time, Bitcoin has significantly underperformed other major assets, making it easier for multi-asset investors to use it as a "tax loss sell" tool to offset realized gains in other markets, thus creating additional selling pressure on prices. Coupled with the sharp decline in early October, many trading teams are still digesting previous losses, and their willingness to expand risk exposure before the year-end is limited. Against a backdrop of constrained risk appetite, increasing positions and capital allocation have become more cautious, keeping the market in a state of low volatility and range-bound fluctuations.

Options Expiration and Risk Budget Reset: Structural Turning Point Window Approaches

On December 26, 2025, Bitcoin will face the largest options expiration in history, with approximately $17.2 billion in call options and $6.2 billion in put options concentrated for settlement. From the distribution of strike prices, call options are mainly concentrated above $100,000, making it difficult to reach in the short term; in contrast, a significant amount of put options open interest is clustered around $85,000, making this area more likely to become a price battleground before and after expiration.

Historical experience shows that the market tends to be more conservative at year-end, while after entering the new year, the speed of emotional reversal often exceeds expectations as capital is reallocated and risk budgets are restored. The current technical structure is also changing: downward momentum is marginally slowing, but there is no clear consensus on upward movement. In this context, the market may be shifting from a phase where "downside risk dominates" to one where "downside is limited, and upside still needs catalysts." After the options expiration is completed, position pressure is expected to be released in stages, coupled with potential ETF fund inflows and risk appetite recovery in January, creating room for improvement in market sentiment.

Overall, although 2026 may still pose challenges for long-term unilateral bullish positions, the focus of research has begun to shift towards tactical opportunities where the risk-return structure is gradually improving. Bitcoin has underperformed other major assets for several weeks, and the calendar switch effect from year-end to the beginning of the year may cause related opportunities to emerge earlier than the market expects. The significance of the options expiration event on December 26 lies not in the mechanical settlement of contracts themselves, but in the fact that after this point, market participants often begin to reposition in anticipation of January's capital inflows and risk appetite recovery. This phase may become an important window for observing structural changes and emotional turning points.

The above views are partly derived from Matrix on Target. Contact us to obtain the complete report from Matrix on Target.

Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investments should be made with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.