Barclays: Expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in July and December next year

According to a report by Jinshi Data, two members of Barclays FICC Research stated in a research report that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates in July and December 2026.

These members indicated that this outlook is based on Japan's "spring wage negotiation cycle." They noted that the recent interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan further demonstrates that the wage increases determined during the annual spring negotiations are not only the starting point of the Bank of Japan's "wage-price cycle" narrative but also the strongest bargaining chip in negotiations with the Japanese government regarding interest rate hikes. The members added that the Bank of Japan must also pay due attention to the risks of further depreciation of the yen, as it has done so far.