Analysis: After the largest options expiration in history tomorrow, BTC volatility may increase. If BTC drops to $80,000-$82,000, there will be a potential rebound opportunity

Data analyst Murphy stated that approximately $23.6 billion worth of Bitcoin options will expire tomorrow, marking the largest options expiration day in Bitcoin's history. After market makers offload their related hedging positions, the support and resistance formed by the options structure will temporarily become ineffective, potentially amplifying BTC's volatility in the short term until all participants re-establish their bets and the market generates a new capital structure.

If BTC retraces near the previous bottom (around $80,000 - $82,000) during this period, it will present an opportunity to bet on a "short-term rebound." The volatility that occurs during the capital structure vacuum period may not necessarily indicate the beginning of a new round of sharp declines. Moreover, there are currently signals of "bullish divergence" appearing on a smaller scale in the "price and capital increment gradient." The "price and capital increment gradient" measures the relative momentum change between BTC's price momentum and real capital inflow. When the speed of capital outflow changes less compared to the speed of BTC's price decline, it can be interpreted as a correction to the downward trend, indicating a demand for a rebound.

In the periods of 2024-2025 and 2021-2022, after the occurrence of four "bullish divergence" signals, BTC experienced rebounds of varying degrees, even trend reversals. However, considering the current overall market sentiment is still in a bearish recovery phase, the probability of the former is greater.