Institution: The United States still has about three rate cut opportunities in 2026

Galaxy Securities pointed out that, influenced by the unexpectedly high economic growth rate, CME observation data shows that the probability of interest rate cuts in January 2026 has converged compared to previous estimates.

After the data was released, Fed Chair candidate Hassett stated that the growth foundation still comes from falling prices, rising incomes, and improved sentiment, and clearly pointed out that if GDP growth remains around 4%, new jobs are expected to return to the range of 100,000 to 150,000 per month. He also bluntly stated that the Fed is clearly lagging behind the situation regarding interest rate cuts.

The economic growth in the third quarter mainly reflects the easing of inventory and trade disturbances, which is not enough to change the trend of weakening marginal employment; with employment becoming the focus of policy trade-offs and the gradual settling of the Fed Chair candidate, there is still room for about three interest rate cuts in 2026. (Jin Ten)