K33 Research: Bullish on 2026, predicting Bitcoin will outperform stock indices and gold

The K33 Research report titled "2025 Annual Review" indicates that 2025 will be a year where the fundamentals and price performance of cryptocurrencies are severely disconnected. Despite the U.S. establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve, the Trump administration promoting the inclusion of digital assets in 401(k) plans through executive orders, and a regulatory shift brought about by changes in SEC leadership, Bitcoin underperformed mainstream assets like U.S. stocks and gold due to large-scale profit-taking by early holders (OGs) and adjustments in market structure, all while volatility hit historic lows.

K33 Research holds a constructive bullish outlook for 2026, predicting that Bitcoin will outperform stock indices and gold, believing that the positive effects of regulatory victories will outweigh the impacts of capital allocation. On a macro level, it is expected that Trump will appoint a dovish Federal Reserve chair to replace tightening policies with expansionary ones, creating an "abundant" environment that will benefit scarce assets like Bitcoin. In terms of regulation, the "Clarity Act" is expected to pass in the first quarter of 2026, with broader cryptocurrency legislation also anticipated to be signed at the beginning of the year.

The institutional side is set to explode: Morgan Stanley plans to allow advisors to allocate 0-4% of Bitcoin ETFs for clients starting January 1, 2026, and E*Trade's retail crypto trading is expected to launch in the first half of 2026. In terms of specific data predictions, net inflows into ETFs in 2026 are expected to exceed those of 2025; on the corporate finance side, it is predicted that MicroStrategy will not sell its Bitcoin (although it may be removed from the MSCI index), with the overall corporate finance net absorption expected to be 150,000 BTC, a decrease of 330,000 BTC year-on-year; supply-side predictions suggest that the supply of Bitcoin held for over two years will end its downward trend, rebounding to over 12.16 million BTC by the end of the year, with early selling pressure dissipating and turning into net buyer demand.

Additionally, with the opening of 401(k) plans, the market will see a huge potential buying demand based on different allocation weights of 1% to 5%.