Analysis: U.S. stocks generally rose as investors are positioning themselves for optimistic expectations in 2026

The U.S. stock market has entered the traditional "Santa Claus rally," with major indices generally closing higher. Gold and silver both hit historic highs, while platinum is also approaching record levels. The cryptocurrency market surged before retreating. The S&P 500 index closed higher on Monday, erasing all losses from December and is on track for an eight-month winning streak, marking the longest consecutive gains since 2018.

This round of gains is driven by multiple factors. First, last Friday's record "triple witching" options expiration cleared a significant number of bullish positions in the S&P 500 within the 6700-6800 range, creating space for stock prices to rise. The VIX volatility index fell below 15, reaching its lowest level since August, while short-term implied volatility continues to compress. Analysts believe that market makers' hedging demand has shifted to a trend-following approach, pushing the market into a "slow climb" rhythm.

Secondly, seasonal factors provide a favorable environment, as historical data shows that the end of the year is typically a strong period for the stock market. Additionally, investors are positioning themselves early for optimistic expectations for 2026, including accelerated GDP and corporate earnings growth, as well as the potential transformation of AI trading. Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that if the Fed does not continue to cut interest rates next year, there is a risk of recession, and dovish comments further boost risk appetite. From a technical perspective, the next psychological barrier for the market is the 7000-point mark for the S&P 500.