# I. Outlook

1. Summary at the Macro Level and Future Predictions

Last week, the main theme of the U.S. macro economy was "data repricing" following the confirmation of a policy turning point. Against the backdrop of the December interest rate decision clearly signaling the end of the rate hike cycle, the market refocused on fundamentals: the job market continued to cool, with weak job creation and hiring demand; consumer and manufacturing activities remained at low levels, with cautious corporate investment sentiment; although inflation did not show a significant rebound, service prices remained sticky, causing the overall inflation decline to be slow. U.S. Treasury yields fluctuated and fell during the week, and the dollar weakened, reflecting the market's continued expectations for future easing, but risk appetite did not significantly rebound.

Looking ahead, the U.S. economy is likely entering a transitional phase of low growth, low inflation, but with a policy bias towards easing. If subsequent data continues to confirm a slowdown in employment and weakening demand, expectations for the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates in early 2026 will be further strengthened; however, if inflation shows signs of resurgence, the policy pace may remain cautious. For the market, the short-term focus will shift from "policy direction" to "speed of economic downturn," and the performance of risk assets will depend more on whether data supports a moderate slowdown rather than a rapid recession. Overall, the macro environment is no longer tight, but recovery momentum remains insufficient, and volatility may remain high from the end of the year to early next year.

2. Market Changes and Warnings in the Cryptocurrency Industry

Last week, the cryptocurrency market remained in a state of low-level fluctuations and weak rebounds. Bitcoin fluctuated around $89,000, repeatedly attempting to rebound but with trading volume failing to expand, indicating that new capital remains cautious. The "dovish confirmation" following the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision did not significantly improve market risk appetite, with ETF inflows remaining low and institutions primarily adopting a wait-and-see approach. Altcoins continued to underperform BTC overall, with most sectors continuing a slow decline; only a few themes experienced brief surges in the low liquidity environment at year-end, but sustainability was clearly lacking, and the market structure remained defensive.

In terms of warnings, the current cryptocurrency market still faces dual pressures of tight liquidity and year-end risk convergence. If Bitcoin cannot effectively recover and stabilize in the $95,000-$100,000 range, the market may continue to maintain a weak consolidation at year-end, or even test the low points again. Meanwhile, year-end institutional settlements, position adjustments, and macro data disturbances may amplify short-term volatility. Only when a clear macro rate cut timetable is seen moving forward, or when risk assets overall warm up, can the cryptocurrency market potentially break out of the current weak pattern; otherwise, caution is needed regarding the emotional exhaustion and further downside risks brought about by repeated bottoming at low levels.

3. Industry and Sector Hotspots

Raising $3 million, Space, a high-speed prediction market infrastructure led by ECHO and Arctic Digital, is a decentralized prediction market platform built on Solana; with total funding of $9 million, Self Protocol, a global infrastructure for the self-sovereign identity era, co-invested by Green Field and SoftBank, is an open-source identity protocol focused on privacy, using zero-knowledge proofs (ZKP) for secure identity verification.

# II. Market Hotspot Sectors and Potential Projects of the Week

1. Overview of Potential Projects

1.1. Analysis of the $3 Million Financing, High-Speed Prediction Market Infrastructure Space Led by ECHO and Arctic Digital on Solana CLOB

Introduction

Space is a decentralized prediction market platform built on Solana, where users can trade on various real-world events related to crypto, politics, sports, technology, culture, etc., and receive rewards for correct predictions.

CLOB and Order Matching

Space operates on Solana and uses a Central Limit Order Book (CLOB), allowing users to trade directly with each other.

No market makers, no intermediaries, no AMM curves—only transparent order matching and real price discovery.

1. How the Order Book Operates

• Maker: Submits limit orders, pays 0% fees, and earns rewards for providing liquidity.

• Taker: Trades with existing orders, with fees dynamically changing based on market probability.

• Order matching follows price priority → time priority:

• Orders with better prices are executed first;

• Orders at the same price are executed in the order they were submitted.

2. Order Lifecycle

1. User submits a market order or limit order.

2. The matching engine checks for counterparty orders.

3. If there is a counterparty → immediate execution (taker).

4. If not → the order is added to the order book (maker).

5. The order will remain until:

• Executed

• Canceled by the user

• Or expires

3. Price Discovery

Prices are determined by supply and demand, with every order publicly visible