2025 Cryptocurrency Chronicles: I Am Not a Believer, I Am a Gambler

Written by: 1912212.eth, Foresight News

Setting aside the top-tier exchanges and project teams, the winners of this round of the crypto market are mainly some professional traders, airdrop hunters, and Bitcoin holders, while more are small retail investors trading at a loss in the secondary market.

As another round of hot narratives is unearthed, some people exit at high points to enjoy life, flaunting their luxury cars and watches, loudly proclaiming "thank u crypto"; while more have long been unable to keep up with the rhythm, remaining stuck in this prolonged season.

The exit of adults is often silent and unannounced. Yet, you can still sense the changing seasons of the industry from many social media accounts that have not been updated for a long time.

Foresight News interviewed some players in the crypto space to discuss their past and present. (All names are pseudonyms)

Can't Even Afford High-End Cosmetics Anymore

Zhao Jing entered the industry in 2018, shortly after graduating and moving to Beijing, believing there were infinite possibilities here. She is like the protagonist Li Hailun in this year's movie "The Gold Rush," articulate and meticulous in both life and work. She claims to pursue perfection in many aspects, maintaining a set of unspoken but firm self-requirements: her appearance, expression, and time management must be orderly, which made her appear particularly professional and reliable in her early career.

Zhao Jing initially worked in the traditional finance sector and learned about BTC during a lecture. By chance, she officially joined a crypto media outlet. "At that time, there weren't many opportunities in the internet sector, but there were quite a few in crypto, and I just happened to encounter some good ones." Reflecting on the crypto environment back then, Zhao Jing remarked, "When we held conferences, everyone was very cautious, fearing a sudden regulatory raid on the venue." At that time, Bitcoin was priced around $3,000, and after the conference, she opened the door to a new world and acquired her first Bitcoin.

However, due to her respect for new things, Zhao Jing did not dare to go all in with all her money. It wasn't until later when her leader said, "If you stay in this industry, it's quite meaningless not to buy any coins," that she changed her mind. This statement gave her a different perspective—since she was participating, she should invest more deeply.

Once Pandora's box was opened, Zhao Jing embarked on her journey to financial freedom. In 2021, she received her first airdrop through interacting with Uniswap, then significantly increased her position around $3, and later sold at a high point near $40, making a substantial profit that illuminated her life with the balance in her account.

"At that time, I was making money from short-term, long-term, and contracts," Zhao Jing sighed. Although her later earnings saw some pullback, the magic of the cycle had already filled her with confidence, her eyes sparkling with hopes for the future.

"At that time, the market had already conditioned participants to expect a four-year cycle, leading to BTC rises, ETH rises, and then altcoins rising. But this cycle is clearly not following that pattern."

When analyzing the root causes, Zhao Jing stated that the money outside the market remains outside, with some funds only flowing into BTC; the internal market is still a game of existing funds, with the same money still at play. There is no money left in the market, and participants' mindsets have become more cautious and calculative.

In past cycles, market participants would talk about faith and dreams, but now, Zhao Jing candidly admits that she still has faith in Bitcoin, but her faith in altcoins has completely vanished, along with their prices.

In this cycle, she bought STRK, dabbled in meme coins, and even followed trades on GMGN, but the results all ended up at zero. These failures led her to a period of self-doubt, but she quickly learned from them and adjusted her strategy.

Looking back, Zhao Jing said, "Because I missed out on BTC's rise, I bet on Ethereum to go up, but still felt that Ethereum's growth wasn't large enough, so I bought L2, and the more I bought, the more it fell. The MANTA I bought later also suffered significant losses."

The massive crash on October 11 this year became a painful point in her career. With less than 0.3 times leverage on Binance for staking and lending, she was completely liquidated overnight, resulting in heavy losses.

She candidly admitted that she used altcoins as collateral to borrow USDT, and during that day's crash, the value of the collateral plummeted, leading to the loss of her position. Faced with huge losses, she prioritized risk management and became more cautious.

"In this cycle, not only did I not make money, but due to this incident and various other reasons, I lost over a million. Now, part of my position is in stablecoins, and the other part is in ETH and SOL."

In a continuous state of loss, she has also become careful. In the past, she thought she had some savings and would earn more in the future, buying high-end cosmetics without hesitation; now, that has changed. Even a 700 yuan foundation makes her hesitate for a long time, trying to save wherever possible.

Whenever the prices of her holdings continue to decline, she admits she feels low, emo, regretful, and self-blaming, experiencing a lot of torment and pain.

These visible changes reflect her uncertainty about the future, but at the same time, they reveal a kind of resilience.

Despite everything, Zhao Jing still expresses her intention to remain in the industry, waiting for the moment when the darkness gives way to light.

She has experienced both moments of confidence during her highs and the calm after her losses; this cycle of ups and downs has made her sensitive yet resilient in the crypto market, both idealistic and pragmatic.

Some have taken a big hit in VC coins, but others, with keen instincts, have rapidly accumulated wealth through continuous betting on fast-paced meme coins. They repeatedly showcase their superb trading skills and ability to seize opportunities in the dance of memes. Chen Xudong is one of them.

Money is the Best Health Supplement

Chen Xudong was born in 2001, a typical post-00s, who enjoys playing Honor of Kings, traveling, and taking risks, with a curiosity for new things that surpasses even that of a cat.

When Bitcoin sparked interest in China, he was still in high school and didn't have extra money to invest. However, the seed of cryptocurrency was planted in his heart.

His real journey into cryptocurrency began in his sophomore year. One day, he stumbled upon the explosive narrative of SHIB on Douyin, and coincidentally, his roommate was also interested in cryptocurrency. After some discussion, they decided to each invest 3,000 yuan as a gamble. Within an hour, they had made a 30% profit, and by the next day, their profit had reached 150%.

Achieving such good results on his first operation greatly increased his fondness for the crypto space. At that time, he viewed the crypto market as a field full of opportunities. He gradually invested around 20,000 yuan, mainly relying on profits to continue "making money from money."

The peak of his crypto career came in October this year. He was positioned in the primary market, with floating profits exceeding 1.2 million yuan, and his total assets nearing 10 million. However, later, his assets shrank to just over 400,000. Fortunately, during his exam preparation, he had no time to trade, and aside from the funds in the primary market, the rest were placed in wealth management, allowing him to avoid the massive crash on October 11. At that time, he mainly bet on the meme track of BSC, such as Binance Life, 4, and the first few coins that launched on Binance's exclusive internal market. "Apart from high-leverage short-term operations, retail investors can only rely on memes to achieve high profits."

In his view, making money in the crypto space requires both luck and favorable trends. Regarding meme coins, Chen Xudong finds the post-analysis by KOLs quite amusing.

"There’s not much to analyze about memes; there are countless good narratives, but very few actually succeed. The reasons for those that do are usually due to endorsements from Musk, CZ, market sentiment, and the dual support of celebrity coins in terms of traffic and funds. No matter how good the narrative is, without traffic and the capital of market makers, it can't rise."

He believes his profits are all due to luck and trends, where luck is traffic support, and trends are emotional and financial support. Moreover, his previous main profit points, such as Conflux and its cooperation with telecom operators, saw a tenfold increase, and after Trump took office, he heavily invested in DOGE, Bitcoin, and Ethereum with 10x leverage during those two waves, all relying on luck and trends. Such favorable news would definitely lead to price increases, and it had little to do with strength.

"The only thing that has a bit to do with strength is taking profits in time, like taking profits promptly after Trump launched his coin to avoid subsequent declines."

He feels that the crypto market is all about narratives and expectations. At that time, he thought that with such a super favorable news like Trump launching a coin, there wouldn't be any further expectations to drive price increases, and the facts proved this to be true.

From the peak to now (the end of 2025), Chen Xudong's assets have shrunk by about 10%. The operation he most regrets is with the coin "4." At that time, he thought this coin wouldn't rise, so he bought 1.5% at the super bottom and sold it after it doubled. Looking back, he realizes he failed to adhere to the principle of "doubling/multiplying out the principal, leaving the remaining pattern" for good narratives.

"I ran away after it doubled; otherwise, I could have made a name for myself with a single coin A8."

In recent years, the narrative of the industry has changed rapidly, from DeFi to AI, and then to various new concepts, but he remains optimistic about cryptocurrency. He believes that cryptocurrency is just a small ripple in the financial world and has not yet entered the public's view, with a bright future ahead.

To survive or make money in this industry, he feels the biggest price he has paid is time and energy. Since he mainly plays memes, which require timeliness, there was a period when he sat in front of the computer every day, scanning chains and analyzing narratives. Even during meals and workouts, his mind was filled with memes, living in a daze, believing that the vast majority of "primary market practitioners" have had similar experiences.

Without discussing coin prices, Chen Xudong is now in a state of enjoying life. Money has given him the confidence to not spend time working to please leaders and clients, allowing him time to work out, do what he loves, and even take spontaneous trips. Although he hates money worship, he has to admit that money has a magical power that can give people confidence and courage. "Money is the best health supplement" resonates with him.

After experiencing significant fluctuations in his assets, his consumption perspective has changed quite a bit.

"In high school, I felt pained to spend on a legendary skin for Honor of Kings; now, spending tens of thousands on games feels nothing. My spending on food, drink, and entertainment has increased significantly; spending tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands on a trip is common, something I wouldn't have dared to imagine before. But my view on luxury goods hasn't changed; I still think they are all a tax on intelligence, so I haven't bought any LV clothes, bags, or jewelry. However, I might buy a watch because many styles can retain or even appreciate in value. I'm planning to buy a small sports car because I like it."

Standing at the end of 2025, Chen Xudong feels uncertain about where opportunities lie, but at least the secondary market no longer offers ordinary people a chance to get rich. Currently, perhaps the primary market/meme is the only place where ordinary people can turn their fortunes around, but the difficulty of the primary market is as high as, if not higher than, that of the secondary market. One can only say there are opportunities, but compared to previous years, the market's dividends have significantly decreased. In the altcoin season of 2021, as long as you dared to buy, you would make a fortune; when PUMP first emerged, the primary market was booming, with daily hundredfold, thousandfold, or even ten-thousandfold coins; inscriptions were mindless, just hitting them would earn you money; during the airdrop period, the more you worked, the more you earned, and opening multiple accounts could also lead to wealth. But now, those opportunities are gone; apart from memes, there’s little else to play with, and one can only wait for the next new traffic trend.

Currently, he has temporarily stepped back from the crypto space to prepare for civil service exams. In his view, the endpoint of life is still to come ashore.

Some have left, while others continue to struggle, trying airdrops, contracts, and Polymarket, but never achieving significant results; this is a true reflection of Zhang Hao.

If You Can't Hold On, Change Careers

Zhang Hao is not tall and has a slim build. When thinking about problems or facing difficulties, he habitually furrows his brow. His eyes and expression often carry a melancholic look. When asked about crypto issues, he occasionally adjusts his glasses perched on his nose, pondering for a few seconds before revealing his various past experiences.

"This is the most pessimistic and disheartened moment since I entered the space," Zhang Hao said.

In the past, regardless of what the market experienced, Zhang Hao was full of confidence because he believed everything would come back. Now, he is no longer so optimistic.

The bear market of 2019, the March 12 incident of 2020, the May 19 event of 2021, and the FTX crash of 2022 did not dishearten Zhang Hao. However, since 2024, the industry has clearly started to show a decline in the profit effect, and 2025 has become a hellish market in his eyes, as all the profits made in previous cycles have been given back to the market this year.

"At first, I put a lot of effort into airdropping on zkSync and LayerZero, creating multiple accounts and manually refreshing each one while completely avoiding fund transfers. However, even being this careful, I still got witch-hunted. Aside from my main account earning less than 600U in ZK tokens, I gained nothing else, and after this, I almost gave up on chasing airdrops for a long time."

However, Zhang Hao started to chase airdrops by trading volume on Backpack. Initially, he played with small amounts in long and short positions, but later found it completely unsatisfying, and the trading volume was too small. He began transferring funds from exchanges to Backpack, embarking on a bold gambling journey.

Since 2025, the market conditions have been hellishly difficult, becoming an insurmountable hurdle for Zhang Hao.

Although he kept his leverage within 10 times, he still suffered nearly a 30% drop in positions on WLD and BERA twice in a row. Initially, he bought at the bottom, sold for profit as the price rose, but after observing for a while, he felt it was a volatile market and kept buying at the bottom, only for the price to mercilessly drop again after the fluctuations. After such repeated attempts, Zhang Hao was severely depleted and stopped trading.

"In the second half of the year, I only bought SUI, and after initially buying at the bottom, I did make some profits. Before October 11, I was optimistic about the market in late October and November, so I kept buying until I was fully invested. After the massive crash on October 11, my positions were once again swept away."

Zhang Hao stated, "In the past, my personal assets fluctuated by hundreds of thousands daily, and I had no concept of money; now I'm scared. I've lost so much that I've completely lost confidence and courage."

When asked about the reasons, Zhang Hao expressed uncertainty about whether this industry will still have any so-called wealth effects in the future. Now, the entire crypto space has completely devolved into a fast-paced casino, with most of the money in the market being earned by shrewd professional traders, market makers, and malicious project teams. The key is that many wrongdoers can act with impunity and face no punishment.

This brings to mind a tweet from a top trader in the secondary market who lamented:

"Now, project teams have reached the point of draining the pond. In the past, there were many secondary retail investors, whether for new launches or airdrops, they could take over, so project teams still had some dignity. Now, it's completely unreasonable; they sell whatever they can, even for 1 yuan or 1 dime. Those who lock up morally also sell, as long as no one is watching, they sneakily sell, and when sanctioned by Binance, they say they will buy back (because listing on Binance requires a deposit), and when no one is watching, they sell again. If you like airdrops, the project teams will drain your TVL and fees; if you like new launches, they will give you a broken launch. Occasionally, stablecoins will rug pull. New Alphas are also poured in whenever possible; if they are late, no one will pay attention. In this environment, how can we expect newcomers to come and play?"

This trader bluntly stated that in the current market, the wealthiest are a group of smart people calculating who they can pour into; if they can't calculate who to pour into, they won't play.

In Zhang Hao's eyes, project teams engage in airdrop insider trading, insider trading on good news, and after TGE, they lie flat and unload. Exchanges continuously list garbage tokens, and fools who take over have already lost enough to exit the market. Now, there is almost no belief in any narrative in the market; it's purely gambling, just seeing who has better gambling skills.

"If such problems cannot be solved, this industry is basically nearing its end." Zhang Hao continued, "In the past, everyone believed crypto had infinite possibilities, but today, only BTC and stablecoins are recognized by the market. In the future, crypto will still only be a 2.0 version of finance."

After failing in contracts, Zhang Hao was unwilling to give up and turned his attention to opportunities on Polymarket, believing that with AI + analysis + focusing on small profits, there should be profits to be made. So, he withdrew funds from the exchange to recharge, hoping to recover all the losses incurred in contracts. However, Polymarket also taught him a solid lesson.

"I thought that with about 98% probability close to the deadline, I could increase my position to nibble on a bit of profit, but I realized I was too naive. With half an hour left until the deadline, a sudden reversal caused my large position to plummet from a 99% probability to 1%, and there was no way to turn it around."

After this incident, Zhang Hao stated he would never dare to go all in casually again; there are many pitfalls on Polymarket, and so-called on-chain arbitrage is actually a precarious endeavor, with no guaranteed bets. Any unexpected event could lead to significant losses.

Since then, he has lost all interest in continuing to bet on Polymarket and has completely removed it from his browser favorites.

Zhang Hao's first task every morning used to be opening the app to check market conditions; now, he only occasionally glances at Bitcoin and Ethereum to see the overall market, participating in some pre-deposit activities.

"For now, I'll just hold on; if I really can't hold on anymore, I'll change careers." When discussing his future plans, Zhang Hao shared his thoughts.

As the end of 2025 approaches, the sun rises as usual. Zhao Jing still grits her teeth, holding on amidst the remnants of her faith; Chen Xudong is preparing to buy a new car to explore the world, while Zhang Hao curls up in his chair, occasionally glancing at the market with a sense of weariness.

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